Markets:
WTI crude oil down $1.42 to $61.77US 10-year yields down 9 bps to 4.43%Gold up $60 to $3234CHF leads, NZD lagsS&P 500 up 0.4%We got a full slate of data today and most of the numbers were close to estimates but PPI stood out as a softer indication and that led to Fed rate cut odds ticking higher, especially further out the curve. It also lent some relief in bonds as yields fell 7-11 bps across the curve.
The US dollar continues to differ in its reaction function to yield moves, suggesting that fiscal policy is increasingly seen as off-base. Despite falling yields, the US dollar rose and it's been the opposite on days when yields have risen. That's something Deutsche Bank raised the alarm on today and a critical dynamic to watch as the US budget drama plays out.
The US retail sales data was somewhat comforting as it showed strong spending in bars and restaurants, which is typically one of the first things to go. Walmart did offer a stark warning about price rises though so that should keep the Fed in watch-and-wait mode.
The Canadian dollar was something of an outperformer in North American as oil and commodity prices rebounded from the earlier lows. Part of that was a bounce in oil prices after Iran said it hadn't received an deal offers from the United States. The risk picture also lent some support, though that wasn't seen in the other commodity currencies.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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