Bryan Mbeumo reportedly wants to join Manchester United this summer. After enjoying an incredible season at Brentford, there’d be good reason to spend big on him.
When your manager openly admits you are “a selling club” and you have members of your squad outperforming most of the rest of Europe, there is only ever going to be one outcome.
That’s why Bryan Mbeumo is almost certain to leave Brentford this summer.
Having completed the first 20-goal season of his career, Mbeumo has understandably attracted interest from some of the Premier League’s biggest clubs, and if reports are to be believed, Manchester United is his preferred destination.
United appear to be acting early in this transfer window to address the issues that blighted their first season under Ruben Amorim, and they now are expected to add Mbeumo to the signing of Matheus Cunha from Wolves.
The word is that Brentford want at least as much for Mbeumo as Wolves got for Cunha (£62.5 million), so with the player seemingly keen on the move, the final decision rests on whether United are able and willing to pay that much for a second attacking player in a matter of days.
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1 week ago Matt FurnissThere’s no knowing for sure whether the Cameroon international would end up proving money well spent for United, but Brentford’s certainty that he would prove a success when making him their record signing in 2019 should give those in charge at Old Trafford some hope.
Then-Brentford co-director of football Rasmus Ankersen told former defender Pontus Jansson just how much he believed in Mbeumo when he brought him to Brentford.
“He said, ‘We are going to buy a young player from France, and if he is not a world-class player in a couple of years, I’m going to be very disappointed’,” Jansson told The Athletic earlier this year.
Mbeumo had just signed for Brentford in the Championship from Troyes for £5.8 million, and he has gone on to repay Ankersen’s faith in the six years since. His 2024-25 campaign has cemented his place among the game’s elite, and when he departs he will also provide a significant financial return on Brentford’s investment. His numbers from this season explain why they are able to demand so much for him.
He is both a goalscorer and a creator; he was arguably the most creative player among the top scorers in the Premier League this season. Only three players scored more than his 20 goals, but while he was down in 17th for assists with seven, he led the whole top flight for expected assists, with 9.3 xA.
His underperformance in his assists column compared to his xA suggests he was let down by his teammates’ finishing, and perhaps should have got a couple more. Mohamed Salah got 11 more assists (18) than Mbeumo from a lower xA total (9.1), for example.
When it came to his finishing, however, Mbeumo far exceeded both expectations and his underlying numbers. Having never before hit double figures for Premier League goals in a season, he romped to 20 in 2024-25, overperforming his expected goals (12.3 xG) by more than any other player in the division (+7.7). Across Europe’s top five leagues, only Bayer Leverkusen forward Patrik Schick fared better in this regard (+8.5).
Mbeumo’s goalscoring was helped by his exemplary penalty record – his miss from 12 yards against Fulham last month was the first failure from the spot of his Premier League career (11 attempts) – but even when discounting his five goals from spot-kicks, Mbeumo still outperformed his xG by 7.5. Again, only Schick (+8.3) did better.
Such a record in front of goal usually suggests one of two things: either the player possesses elite-level finishing, or they enjoyed a hot streak of a season and will revert to the mean eventually. Given this was the first time in his four seasons in the Premier League that Mbeumo outperformed his xG, there is reason to doubt whether his finishing has permanently improved dramatically. This season could well be a one-off from a goalscoring perspective.
But it also might not be, and that is a risk United understandably appear willing to take. And more importantly, Mbeumo’s game is about far more than just scoring goals. Even if he scores at a more ‘normal’ rate next season, there’ll still be plenty else he provides.
Of all the players to score 10+ goals in the Premier League this season, only four averaged more touches per 90 than Mbeumo (50.5), showing how much he gets involved in play compared to other goalscorers. He is top of the list for touches per 90 of the seven players who scored more than 15 goals.
When he gets on the ball, his main aim is to move quickly and directly towards goal. He is one of the best ball carriers in the Premier League, ranking seventh among attackers for progressive carries – moving with the ball at least five metres upfield – last season (267).
He stands out most for his end product after moving forward with the ball, though, having followed up nine of his carries with a goal, giving him more goal-ending carries than any other player in Europe’s top five leagues. His total of nine was four more than all of the players in Manchester United’s squad combined (five), highlighting an area in which Mbeumo would provide a stark improvement if he were to move to Old Trafford.
Mbeumo also produced two assist-ending carries, and his combined total of 11 carries with a goal or assist was the second most in Europe’s top five leagues behind only Salah (13), level with Vinícius Júnior and one ahead of Lamine Yamal (10). Ballon d’Or contenders are the kind of company Mbeumo’s form has ensured he is keeping in these metrics.
He also works extremely hard off the ball, both when his team have possession and when the opposition do. He made more off-the-ball runs (1,038) while a teammate had the ball than every other player in the Premier League in 2024-25, while only Bruno Guimarães (421.0 km) and Daniel Muñoz (389.6 km) covered more ground than him (387.6 km) in total. Only two players – Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo (37) and Brentford teammate Mikkel Damsgaard (35) won possession in the final third more times than him (32).
An added benefit to signing Mbeumo is his record when it comes to his availability. He missed only five minutes of a possible 3,420 in the Premier League this season, starting all 38 games and being subbed off only three times. Only six players – Brentford centre-back Nathan Collins and five goalkeepers – played more minutes than him across the whole top flight (3,415).
According to transfermarkt.com, Mbeumo has only suffered one injury in his six seasons at Brentford – an ankle injury that caused him to miss a chunk of the winter in 2023-24. Other than that season, he has played in 95.6% of Brentford’s league games since he signed six years ago.
There should be no underestimating just how important and helpful having players who can stay fit and play consistently is, as it allows the team to develop more quickly and grow together. Just look at United’s issues at centre-back, where they had 10 different players start games this season in the Premier League alone. A little more consistency would have helped them adapt to Amorim’s football more quickly.
In truth, other than Bruno Fernandes, there hasn’t been much consistency at all at United this season, and bringing in some players who have proved capable of playing a full campaign makes sense. With no European football to navigate, they could reasonably hope to have Mbeumo available to play every league game for them.
On the topic of United having no European football, the signing of Cunha and potential signing of Mbeumo prove how much of a draw Old Trafford remains in spite of their recent failures on the field.
Amorim has just endured a terrible first half-season in charge, but his project remains sufficiently exciting to attract two of the Premier League’s top scorers and most exciting attackers from 2024-25.
There’s no guarantee they’ll both be able to replicate their form at another club, but Mbeumo’s all-round game and his upward trajectory suggest that spending big on him would not be much of a risk.
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A One-Off Season or a Sign of Something Better: Should Man Utd Spend Big on Bryan Mbeumo After Exceptional 2024-25? Opta Analyst.
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