Russia’s expansion of its nuclear forces through new weapons is a “significant threat” to Europe, and an arms race over hypersonic delivery systems could spiral out of control, according to a specialist on Russia’s nuclear programmes.
A new report from the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DNI) assessed that Moscow is “expanding its nuclear forces by adding new capabilities, including nuclear air-to-air missiles and novel nuclear systems.”
The report added that Russia is enhancing its nuclear presence in neighbouring Belarus by “establishing missile and nuclear-capable aircraft capabilities, renovating a nuclear weapons storage site, and training Belarusian crews to handle tactical nuclear weapons.”
Russia is also developing weapons for space including a “satellite capable of carrying a nuclear device,” the DNI stated.
Dr Maxim Starchak, an expert on Russia’s nuclear weapons at Queen’s University, Canada, said the new nuclear air-to-air missiles – and Russia’s potential to produce them at scale – could be a threat to Moscow’s enemies.
“This military potential should be a cause for concern. Such missiles are relatively easy to develop. Almost all Russian fighters can be its carriers,” he said.
“So far, Russia has made a demonstrative display of its capabilities. In the absence of any arms control agreements and lack of trust, the very fact of possessing such weapons and the potential to expand them will significantly threaten European security.”
Russia’s nuclear weapon storage sites are spread across the vast country, according to research by Russianforces.orgWhat do we know about Russia’s new missiles?
The missiles are a variant of the R-37M model that was tested last year on MiG-31 fighter aircraft.
“It was developed as a counterweight to the superiority of Nato countries in aviation,” Starchak said.
The R-37M is the fastest air-to-air missile in the world with a speed of Mach 6 (3,600mph) according to Military Watch magazine, as well as one of the longest ranges at about 250 miles.
“The integration of nuclear warheads onto the R-37M would allow a single Russian fighter or interceptor to neutralise full squadrons of enemy targets, entire salvoes of cruise missiles, or large swarms of drones,” the outlet reported.
No other country is known to possess an equivalent weapon. The US may have air-to-air missiles with similar capabilities, according to Dr Pavel Podvig, director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project in Geneva. “But definitely not nuclear.”
Podvig and Starchak agree that the DNI reference to “novel nuclear systems” is likely to refer to two systems; the Burevestnik nuclear-armed cruise missile, and the Poseidon nuclear torpedo, both of which were first announced by Vladimir Putin in 2018.
Kyiv Mayor Vitalii Klitschko with the remains of a Kh-47 Kinzhal Russian ‘hypersonic’ missile shot down by a Ukrainian air defence (Photo: Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters)The Burevestnik appears closest to deployment, said Podvig, citing satellite images that appeared to show preparation of a launch site for the weapon that has a claimed range of 14,000 miles.
But the programme has been beset with difficulties, according to a new assessment by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists journal, which cites “serious setbacks, including nearly a dozen failed tests.”
Russia is also developing several long-range, hypersonic nuclear-capable missiles including the Kinzhal and Zircon that have been used during the invasion of Ukraine, a field that has sparked new competition between nuclear powers as the US develops models such as the Dark Eagle, and the UK and France advance their own programmes.
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Read More“The arms race is going on to a certain extent in the field of hypersonic weapons,” said Starchak.
“Many nuclear powers are trying to produce them. As both nuclear and conventional weapons become hypersonic, the unpredictability of international security increases.
“Without agreements to control these weapons, the hypersonic potential has become a symbol of the state’s military superiority.”
Podvig suggests the US’ interest in missile defence, such as Donald Trump’s proposal for a £130bn Golden Dome, may be a part of this competition as they are “about getting the capability to counter and intercept hypersonic weapons”.
US officials also alleged last year that Russia is developing space-based weapons, potentially including nuclear weapons, which Moscow has denied.
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