The SEC fanbases that should actually be disappointed if their teams miss the 2025 College Football Playoff ...Middle East

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The SEC fanbases that should actually be disappointed if their teams miss the 2025 College Football Playoff

Last year, I can say in hindsight that it was ambitious for me to say that 8 SEC teams deserved to have College Football Playoff expectations.

Don’t get it twisted. I didn’t say that 8 SEC teams were going to make the Playoff. That would’ve been insane. Here’s how I view the yearly standard for the SEC with 12-team Playoff representation:

    3 SEC teams: Disappointing year 4 SEC teams: Standard year 5 SEC teams: Flex year

    I maintain that as the barometer moving forward. Hence, why last year was a disappointment for the SEC to only have 3 teams in the field, 2 of which didn’t win a Playoff game.

    But my point was that there were a whole bunch of SEC teams who could see a path to a 9- or 10-win season, and it wouldn’t have been shocking. Perspective is everything in a sport with an 8-month offseason. We have more perspective on what that journey looks like and what the margin for error is.

    So I thought this year, a better way to shape this discussion around Playoff expectations would be to examine the SEC fanbases that would have a right to feel disappointed if their team missed out on the 12-team field.

    Here are the 5 that I settled on:

    South Carolina

    I don’t think that the Gamecocks will make the field — that daunting schedule is a big reason why FanDuel has the over/under at 7.5 wins — but I included them on this list because of the LaNorris Sellers factor. He’s considered a top-5 or top-10 returning quarterback in the sport. For a program that has never had an All-SEC quarterback and has had just 1 quarterback selected in the 7-round era of the NFL Draft, which dates back to 1994 (it was Spencer Rattler in 2024), returning an elite signal-caller has been historically rare. Sellers will be draft-eligible after the 2025 season, and he’s already showing up in the way-too-early mock drafts.

    South Carolina has a window to capitalize on that this year. It just missed out on earning that opportunity last year, and while it has a ton of defensive turnover after watching 5 players on that side of the ball get selected in the NFL Draft, having an elite quarterback is still the ultimate game-changer. Shane Beamer has that. If this is a 7-5 or 8-4 season that ends with Sellers leaving for the NFL, it’ll feel disappointing that he did so without getting South Carolina to that next step. That’s a credit to him and the 2024 squad for raising 2025 expectations to this level.

    Alabama

    If Kalen DeBoer is going into Year 3 having not made the 12-team Playoff, his skeptics will be shouting from the mountaintops. It’s as simple as that. DeBoer would’ve faced that type of pressure in the 4-team era, but in the 12-team era, that’s a different ballgame. Inexperienced quarterback room aside, it’s a no-excuses offense now after he reunited with Ryan Grubb. He’s got a quarterback room with a pair of former 5-stars, and a guy in Austin Mack who’ll be in Year 3 in the system. Even if Alabama doesn’t have the same QB1 from start to finish in 2025, there should be no shortage of capable options whom DeBoer can trust.

    The Year 2 Kane Wommack defense is loaded with more talent than one would’ve expected in a post-Nick Saban world — Alabama just had its best scoring defense since 2017 — and it’s a schedule that’s begging for 10-2. It’s also worth remembering that DeBoer is 15-3 vs. AP Top-25 teams, and he’s 6-1 in top-10 matchups. There aren’t any hurdles that should be standing in DeBoer’s way. He’ll have nobody to blame but himself if he ends Year 2 still searching for that first 12-team Playoff berth in Tuscaloosa.

    LSU

    Now is the time for Brian Kelly to show that he was worth that 9-figure investment. It’s Year 4, and while I don’t believe he’s in jeopardy of losing his job if he misses the Playoff, everything suggests that LSU senses the urgency in 2025. After Garrett Nussmeier announced his return as one of the nation’s top quarterbacks after a 4,000-yard passing season, LSU went all in on the portal in ways that it has been reluctant to as recently as last year. Going after guys like Mansoor Delane, Patrick Payton and Nic Anderson reflected that.

    It also helps that this is Year 2 of the Blake Baker defense. The guy that Kelly hand-picked to overhaul that unit after it was a disaster in 2023 should now have more game-to-game consistency than he had last year. It helps that Harold Perkins’ role should be more solidified at STAR, and Whit Weeks will be the unquestioned alpha of that unit once he returns from his bowl game injury. That’ll give LSU’s portal additions a better transition.

    Again, Kelly getting a $60 million buyout for a disappointing Year 4 feels unlikely. He’s won at least 9 games in all 3 seasons. But if this team can’t break through, it’ll be fair to wonder if Kelly is ever going to deliver on the high expectations that he signed up for.

    Georgia

    Kirby Smart missed consecutive semifinals, so to come up short of the Playoff altogether on the heels of that 2-year dip would be stunning. This is the guy who has 8 consecutive top-7 finishes, and hasn’t had a 3-loss regular season since Year 1 back in 2016. More than any other active coach in the sport, Smart has given his fanbase a reason to feel like a Playoff berth is the bare minimum.

    If Georgia were to whiff on a Playoff berth, we’d either be talking about whether Smart’s defensive prowess is dwindling or if he made a massive mistake by hiring Mike Bobo as his Todd Monken replacement in 2023. The latter feels more likely if UGA misses the Playoff. Gunner Stockton has a unique sample size at the college level, and with so many new pieces at the pass-catcher spots, there are a lot more unknowns than we’re accustomed to seeing with Georgia’s offense, which didn’t exactly have a vintage offensive line last year.

    But Smart is coming off a “disappointing” year that included an SEC title and a top-7 finish. His floor begins at the Playoff.

    Texas

    I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again — Texas has the best returning unit in college football, and it’s got nothing to do with Arch Manning. That defense is championship-level. Period. Outside of Colin Simmons and breakout candidate Kobe Black, Texas has loads of key contributors who’ll be draft-eligible after the 2025 season. That doesn’t mean that all of them will exhaust their eligibility, but that unit will inevitably endure a ton of turnover in 2026. Now is the time to capitalize on having proven All-Americans at every level.

    And yeah, Year 1 of the Manning experience was always going to yield a Playoff-or-bust vibe for Texas, regardless of what his post-2025 NFL decision is. This is one of the most decorated recruits of all time, and Steve Sarkisian is coming off consecutive Playoff semifinal berths, the latter of which happened with a quarterback who played through a torn oblique. Sarkisian is at the peak of his powers, and he hasn’t lost to a team outside the top-15 of the AP Poll since September 2022. That’s relevant for an SEC schedule that sets up well for the second consecutive year.

    Even though the Longhorns have that opener on the road against defending champion Ohio State, anything less than a 10-win regular season would be a wild development.

    And I’m not including Tennessee on this list

    I would’ve had this take if Nico Iamaleava was on board, but now that he’s not, it’s more relevant. The Vols will now have QB1 that’s a post-spring transfer (Joey Aguilar) or someone with 9 career pass attempts at the FBS level. Either way, I do view that as a downgrade from Iamaleava, who I didn’t have as a top-5 SEC quarterback and believed Tennessee was justified to move on from. But find me a post-spring quarterback transfer who led his team to the Playoff that same season. Nobody has done it. Granted, there’s more margin for error in the 12-team Playoff era. That’s worth acknowledging. But I do have some skepticism that the guy who threw more interceptions than anyone in FBS will master the Josh Heupel offense and limit his mistakes enough to lead another 10-2 season.

    Having said that, the regular-season over/under of 8.5 wins hasn’t changed. That’s a testament to the culture that Heupel built and the way that Tim Banks rebuilt that defense. The Vols are coming off their best 3-year stretch in 2 decades. There could be a 9-3 year in store. That would feel like a massive win.

    But it won’t feel like a missed opportunity if this version of Tennessee fails to repeat as a Playoff team.

    The SEC fanbases that should actually be disappointed if their teams miss the 2025 College Football Playoff Saturday Down South.

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