Russian soldier poll finds majority back ceasefire — and confusion over war aims ...Middle East

A majority of Russian soldiers in Ukraine support a ceasefire and many doubt the invasion is succeeding, according to an independent poll. 

Soldiers are also confused over their country’s war aims in Ukraine, citing a range of reasons for Russia’s invasion, according to the survey of more than 100 servicemen on the front lines conducted by independent Russian outlet Verstka, now based outside Russia, between February and April.

Researchers found that 72 per cent of soldiers favoured an end to the fighting, based on interviews of professional and mobilised soldiers across a range of ages and ranks, with just 22 per cent opposed.

“The worst peace is better than a good war,” a machine gunner who fought with mercenary groups was quoted as saying.

Meanwhile 77 per cent of soldiers who had served for fewer than two years supported a ceasefire, although that dropped to 57 per cent for “veterans” who had served for longer, Verstka reported.

Polling in wartime Russia is compromised by regime oppression but the study is credible and supports previous evidence of soldier discontent, said Anton Barbashin, editorial director of the UK-based Russian political analysis journal Riddle.

“Verstka and the people they work with are highly qualified so this is the best approximation,” he said. “Also it does support the anecdotal evidence we’re had from before.”

Forty-four per cent of respondents to the survey said the United States and Europe should be involved in peace talks, with 22 per cent favouring other mediators, and 15 per cent against any negotiations, amid Donald Trump’s ongoing peacemaking efforts.

Soldiers gave different conditions for a ceasefire, such as permanent control of parts of Ukraine, and different responses on what they understood to be Russia’s war aims.

Slightly more than a fifth – 21 per cent – said they were fighting for demilitarisation and “denazification” of Ukraine, the original justifications given by Vladimir Putin before the invasion of February 2022.

A further 22 per cent said the purpose of the war was confrontation with the West and Nato, while 17 per cent said it was to occupy the whole of Ukraine, and another 14 per cent thought the main aim was to topple the government of Volodymyr Zelensky.

Only 2 per cent of those surveyed cited corruption and personal enrichment as the main factor. One respondent from Russia’s far east, a region subject to heavy mobilisation, said they thought the goal was “to make money from the war”.

Researchers also found more pessimism among soldiers than Russia’s civilian population. A slim majority of 53 per cent said Russian operations in Ukraine were successful, while 41 thought they were not.

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A comparative survey by Verstka of the general public found 68 per cent said operations were successful, with 17 per cent saying not.

Grievances in the ranks of the Russian army over issues such as poor equipment and high casualty rates have led to disciplinary issues such as desertion and refusal to obey orders, most notably during the short-lived Wagner mutiny of June 2023.

But Russia has been able to maintain recruitment of about 30,000 soldiers a month, according to Western assessments, partly through relatively generous financial packages.

“So far the payments are keeping enough people in line whatever they feel about the war,” says Barbashin, predicting that the Russian military can maintain its current model for the next “12-18 months without major stress, and if needed with more stress afterwards.”

Abbas Gallayamov, a former Kremlin aide, said the researchers behind the new survey were “credible” but said the sample size was too small to draw firm conclusions.

Signs of discontent in the military were not yet significant enough to be a major concern for the regime, he added. “But the army is a structure that is so hierarchical and closed that usually you don’t see it until it explodes.”

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