Vance’s India trip couldn’t have come at a stranger time ...News

The terrorist attack in Kashmir was conducted during the US vice president’s visit to India, serving as a reminder of the threat Islamist terrorism poses

Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said on Thursday that he had spoken with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about the Pahalgam terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir last week, which killed 26 people and led to the current escalation between India and Pakistan.

The “perpetrators, backers, and planners” of the attack “must be brought to justice,” Jaishankar said.

Washington earlier said it was in touch with both India and Pakistan at multiple levels, urging them to work towards a “responsible solution.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a cabinet meeting on Wednesday to discuss New Delhi’s options in the wake of the Kashmir attack. He has given the heads of the army, navy, and air force “complete operational freedom to decide on the mode, targets, and timing” of India’s response.

The attack occurred during a four-day visit of US Vice President J.D. Vance to India. US President Donald Trump and Vance both hold strong views on Islamist extremism. There is a belief that, as in the past, these terrorist attacks are organized to take place during high level visits to India by American leaders – in an attempt to draw attention to the issue of Kashmir and remind the Americans of the dangers of a conflict between the two nuclear armed powers if this issue remains unresolved.

The terrorist attack was strongly condemned, not only by Trump and Vance, but also by the US secretary of state, the FBI director, the director of national intelligence, and the US attorney general, among others.

Trump has signaled that he will leave it to India and Pakistan to sort things out, which suggests that he is giving India a free hand, just as he did in 2019 when he recognized India’s right to self-defense after the Pulwama attack in Jammu and Kashmir. At the time, India conducted precision strikes on a terrorist camp in Balakot, Pakistan. This time, too, New Delhi has sent a strong signal that it will respond through military means in addition to the diplomatic steps it has taken.

Trade in focus

The latest developments brought about by the terrorist attack should not obscure the importance of Vance’s visit, which reflects bilateral efforts to boost US-India ties, which have seen ups and downs. Even when they are improving, they are not devoid of difficulties, as was seen during the Biden administration.

By organizing a visit by the vice president to India just three months after taking office, the Trump administration has chosen to send a strong message of friendship with India, which also has implications for the region, especially China. Vance is a hawk on China.

Vance’s wife is of Indian origins, which would draw him towards the country – though this could also be a reason not to plan an early visit, to avoid criticism that the personal was being prioritized over the political. Former US Vice President Kamala Harris, for instance, did not visit India despite her Indian background through her mother, and despite an invitation from Modi.

Vance did not shy away from displaying his connection to India by visiting the Akshardham temple in Delhi – which India’s ruling party would appreciate, especially because of the perceived rise of Hinduphobia in some circles in the US – and by having his children wear Indian attire.

Vance’s visit can be seen as an effort to accelerate the momentum of India-US ties. Modi made a visit to the US within three weeks of Trump taking office, which was unusual in itself. The visit was substantial in scope, as reflected in the joint statement issued at the end of it. That such a significant document could be issued even when posts in the administration dealing with India-US ties had not been filled is noteworthy.

Dealing with tariff pressure 

On the other hand, India, like other countries, has come under pressure by Trump on the issue of tariffs, with the US president calling India the “tariff king” and exaggerating the trade deficit the US has with India.

Because Washington is New Delhi’s biggest trade partner in goods and services, with bilateral trade reaching $200 billion and India enjoying a surplus of at least $46 billion, India has been keen to avoid a disruption and has wanted to engage the Trump administration at the very earliest. New Delhi’s message is that it is willing to review its tariffs on US imports in a positive spirit as part of a multi-sector trade deal, with the first tranche to be finalized by this autumn and announced when Trump is expected to visit India for the Quad summit.

The Trump administration wants India to buy more defense items, as well as oil and LNG, besides opening the doors for civil nuclear cooperation, especially small modular nuclear reactors, as a way to balance trade. The aim is to reach $500 billion in trade by 2030.

In a speech at Jaipur, Vance announced that India and the US had finalized the terms of reference for trade talks that will follow. This is significant progress, as the US seeks to go beyond tariffs and include non-tariff barriers, regulatory and intellectual property issues, etc. in the negotiations. The US is pressing India to open up its agricultural sector, which India will resist beyond a point, in view of the dependence of almost 45% of its population on agriculture, as compared to 2% in the US. The US, in fact, subsidizes its farmers far more than India does, but it is done differently.

In his speech, Vance stuck to the script on defense issues, called India a trusted partner for co-production of US defense hardware, and repeated Trump’s offer of F35 aircraft (which India would have little interest in). He asked India to drop non-tariff barriers that prevent US access to the Indian market, mainly agricultural produce and dairy products. He argued that Trump’s policy of ‘drill, baby, drill!’ would be to India’s benefit if it increases its purchases of oil and natural gas from the US. Vance also stressed the importance of amending India’s nuclear liability law.

The general approach of India is a readiness to reduce tariffs, provide some openings in the agricultural sector, increase oil and LNG imports, and increase defense purchases with an emphasis on joint development and production. The acquisition of Javelin anti-tank missiles and the Stryker combat infantry vehicle is likely to happen soon. Additional PI8 maritime surveillance aircraft and heavy-lift aircraft, as well as underwater sea technologies, could be acquired. India will demand in return more access to US technology, an easing of export controls, a shift of supply chains to India, etc.

All in all, Vance’s visit has served to consolidate the forward momentum in US-India ties. However, the manner in which the US handles the present confrontation between India and Pakistan will have an impact on mutual trust-building, which is vital to the future of ties between the two countries.

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