Arne Slot’s men are at Fulham this weekend, hoping to take another step towards the title. We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Craven Cottage with our Fulham vs Liverpool prediction and preview.
Fulham vs Liverpool Stats: The Key Insights
Liverpool are rated as having a 50% chance of a winning at Craven Cottage according to the Opta supercomputer. Fulham have won just one of their previous 13 Premier League clashes with the Reds. Mohamed Salah has either scored or assisted Liverpool’s previous eight league goals on the road.Matches between Fulham and Liverpool rarely disappoint.
The reverse fixture in December might be said to have been a good day for both teams. Marco Silva’s side returned from Anfield with a point, something they haven’t done too often over the years.
However, as they led twice and Liverpool went down to 10 men in just the 17th minute after Andy Robertson was dismissed for denial of a goal-scoring opportunity, the Cottagers will have been disappointed not to win.
For the Reds, it was a good display of their title credentials, even though they only earned a point. Fulham have been the seventh-best team on expected points in the 2024-25 Premier League, yet Liverpool won the expected goals ‘battle’ by 2.1 to 1.2 despite being a man down for most of the contest.
Arne Slot’s side are understandably favourites to win here, though they have had a day less to prepare after a bruising Merseyside derby win over Everton on Wednesday. They were boosted by a 1-0 win though thanks to Diogo Jota‘s second-half goal to restore their 12-point lead at the top of the Premier League.
While Conor Bradley may be fit to return to action at Craven Cottage, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Joe Gomez remain out.
Curtis Jones played well as a makeshift right-back in the derby, so may retain his spot in the starting XI for the trip to London. If he does, he should be up against a close to full-strength Fulham attack, as Silva is set to only be missing Reiss Nelson, Kenny Tete and former Liverpool man Harry Wilson.
Whether the hosts target Jones as one potential area of weakness or not, one thing the Reds are unlikely to need to worry about are long-range goals.
Since the start of last season, Fulham have scored 53 Premier League goals at Craven Cottage but only two of those have come from outside the box, converting just 1.3% of their attempts from distance in that time.
As chance would have it, Liverpool scored twice from outside the penalty area in this fixture last season, with Alexander-Arnold and Ryan Gravenberch both finding the net from range. However, all but one of their away goals this term have been converted from within the box.
But never mind the locations, bathe in the volume if you’re a Reds fan. Liverpool have scored 38 goals in 15 away Premier League matches this season, their joint-best average in a top-flight season (2.53 per game), alongside 2013-14.
You don’t need the details to know that Mohamed Salah has been their architect in chief. Even so, his achievements on the road this season deserve a mention.
Liverpool’s eight goals across their last four away games were all either scored (five) or assisted (three) by the man nicknamed the Egyptian King. There were exactly two goal contributions in each match for Salah, who had another run of four consecutive away games with at least two goals/assists between November and December.
The Premier League record for instances of 2+ goal contributions in away matches during a single season was held by Wayne Rooney, who did this seven times in 2013-14. Salah has bettered that in his last 10 league matches on the road, a stunning burst of form. He could feasibly become the first player to record five such games in a row in Premier League history on Sunday.
With Salah in such rich form, it’s no surprise the Reds are on their second-best unbeaten run away from home in the competition’s history (17 games). Liverpool have also won their previous three matches in London, triumphing at Tottenham, West Ham and Brentford, where it was Darwin Núñez rather than Salah who was the hero.
Do Fulham have the ability to bring these impressive runs crashing to a halt? They did beat Tottenham 2-0 in their previous league match at Craven Cottage, but it’s now over a year since they won consecutive home games. They also come into this game off the back of a 2-1 defeat at Arsenal on Tuesday, which followed their disappointing 3-0 home loss to Crystal Palace in the FA Cup quarter-finals.
Fulham have a poor record against league leaders, taking a single point from their previous 11 matches against such teams. The fact the draw in question occurred at Anfield earlier this season may not count for much here if referee Chris Kavanagh does not send off any visiting players.
Fulham frequently give Liverpool a good game, but it’s usually the Reds who take the points.
Fulham vs Liverpool Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record points hard in favour of Liverpool.
Fulham have won just one of the last 13 Premier League meetings (D3 L9), with that sole victory occurring behind closed doors at Anfield in March 2021.
This fixture ended in a 3-1 win for the Reds last season. Timothy Castagne cancelled out an Alexander-Arnold goal on the stroke of half-time, but Gravenberch and Jota scored after the break to earn the points for the visitors.
Fulham’s last win over Liverpool in front of their own fans was back in December 2011, with Clint Dempsey scoring five minutes from full-time after Jay Spearing had been sent off earlier in the half.
Fulham vs Liverpool Prediction
Will Liverpool win this match? According to the Opta supercomputer, you might as well flip a coin.
The Reds have been given a 50.0% chance of collecting three points. The remaining result possibilities have an almost perfect split too, with a 25.5% probability of Fulham winning and a 24.5% likelihood of the clubs taking a point apiece.
Liverpool are four games from completing their 2024-25 away league programme without defeat. There’s essentially a three-in-four chance that their unbeaten run continues here.
Fulham vs Liverpool Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Fulham vs Liverpool Prediction Opta Analyst.
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