As the race for Champions League qualification intensifies, we analyse the fixture difficulty of each Premier League club’s remaining games.
With the final international break of the season behind us, the Premier League is officially entering the final stretch.
Apart from Crystal Palace and Newcastle (who each have 10 games remaining), every club has just nine matches left in a packed schedule that resumes with midweek fixtures tomorrow.
The battle at both ends of the table looks to be settled, but the race for Champions League qualification remains wide open.
Not all run-ins are created equal, and understanding the relative difficulty of each side’s remaining fixtures could provide clues as to how the final weeks of the season might unfold.
By using the Opta Power Rankings, we can assess the relative difficulty of every side’s remaining fixtures and identify who has the easiest and most difficult schedules.
As a quick reminder, the Opta Power Rankings are a global team rating system that assigns a score to more than 13,000 men’s domestic football teams and over 2,000 women’s domestic teams on a scale from zero to 100, where zero is the lowest-rated team in the world, and 100 the highest.
By averaging the ratings of each club’s remaining opponents, we can determine which teams have the easiest and hardest schedules.
So, with that covered, let’s break down the numbers and see who faces a smooth path to the finish line, and who is in for a gruelling end to the campaign.
Jonathan Manuel / Data AnalystThe Race for the Top Five
The most intriguing battle remaining is the race for the Champions League qualification. Liverpool, Arsenal, and Nottingham Forest have created separation between themselves and the chasing pack but, based on the latest UEFA coefficient standings, a fifth-place finish should also be enough for a place in the 2025-26 Champions League.
Let’s assess how the remaining schedules could impact the leading contenders.
Nottingham Forest have a five-point cushion over Chelsea in fourth place. According to the model, they have the fourth-easiest set of remaining fixtures. They will eye up games against Everton, Brentford and Leicester as spots to get three points, but they have proven this season they can beat anyone. According to the Opta supercomputer, they have a 42.2% chance of finishing in third, and a huge 86.1% probability of a top-five finish.
Manchester City side currently sit in fifth but have the “easiest” remaining schedule in the league. That plays a major role in their 77.2% chance of securing a Champions League place for next season. Having overcome Bournemouth in the FA Cup quarter-final last weekend, there’s every chance that City could end the season with a domestic trophy and Champions League football next year. That’s one way to salvage something from an otherwise dreadful season.
Newcastle are level on points with City, trailing them only on goal difference. Their relatively favourable run-in plus a game in hand gives them a very real shot at climbing the table. Fresh off their League Cup triumph, they will be confident of finishing strongly, and are given a 52.8% probability of securing a top-five finish.
Despite currently occupying fourth place, Chelsea have the toughest schedule among the Champions League contenders, which is why the supercomputer projects them to drop to sixth and settle for a Europa League spot. They finish with a fairly brutal last four fixtures against Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest. Enzo Maresca will want to have plenty of points in the bank ahead of that.
On recent form, it’s Brighton who are the dark horses to sneak into the Champions League. The Seagulls are unbeaten in their last five league games (W4 D1) and earned an impressive draw away at Man City last time out. The Opta supercomputer currently gives them a 20.8% chance of finishing in the top five. With City out of the way, their remaining fixtures rank 10th in difficulty, leaving them in the middle of the pack.
With a Champions League quarter-final and an FA Cup semi-final on the horizon, Aston Villa may shift their focus away from domestic action. Their remaining fixtures are among the tougher ones, and the model gives them just a 7.5% probability of a top-five finish.
The Relegation Battle
According to the model, Wolves have the second-easiest run-in of any Premier League side. Given they endured the toughest opening schedule of the season, it stands to reason that their final stretch would be more forgiving.
Vítor Pereira’s side have a healthy nine-point buffer over the relegation zone, and with a home game against West Ham followed by a trip to Ipswich they could all-but clinch safety with a few wins.
For the three promoted clubs – Southampton, Ipswich, and Leicester – the fixture list offers little encouragement.
Southampton have a very tricky run-in, and while things look a little brighter for Ipswich and Leicester, it’s still very difficult to identify where the substantial number of points they need to survive might come from.
The Title Race
While Liverpool and Arsenal have relatively average remaining schedules, the title race is effectively over. Arne Slot’s side currently hold a commanding 12-point lead at the top of the table and could clinch the title as early as mid-April. The Opta supercomputer gives them a 99.1% probability of lifting the trophy when all is said and done.
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The Premier League is Back – How Difficult Are Every Team’s Remaining Games? Opta Analyst.
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