We’re diving through each league and revealing who our supercomputer’s favorites are in our NCAA women’s basketball conference tournament predictions.
March is an exciting time in women’s basketball every season. But this season might be even better.
Conference tournaments are the final note of record when the selection committee decides where to seed each team. With more parity in women’s hoops than in years past, the seedings could go a long way toward determining the eventual champion. So it stands to reason these conference tournaments are more important than ever.
That’s not even mentioning the teams that need to win their conference tournaments in order to get into the NCAA tournament. Or the teams that need a strong performance to move off the bubble. So much is at stake in these single-elimination tournaments, making these games some of the best basketball you’ll see all year.
We’ve simulated each conference tournament thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster). It is a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more. As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 that averages 70 possessions per game is projected to outscore an average team by .29 points per possession (20 divided by 70) in a game. If the game had 100 possessions, then that 20-some TRACR team would outscore the average team by about 29 points.
We’re going to dive through each conference, starting with the first league tourneys to get underway this week, and see who our model’s favorites are. The teams within each conference are ranked by the highest probability of winning the league tournament, with that probability in parentheses.
Note: Conference tournament win probabilities for each team are their projected chances entering the conference tournament. Some conferences are still finishing their regular season. These projections will continually update after the end of each conference’s regular season.
Horizon League
Green Bay (43.7%) Purdue Fort Wayne (32.6%) Cleveland State (19.1%) Robert Morris (2.5%) Northern Kentucky (1.2%) IU Indianapolis (0.4%) Detroit (0.3%) Wright State (0.1%) Oakland (0.1%) Youngstown (0.1%) Milwaukee (0.1%)Green Bay went 19-1 in conference play, with its only loss coming on the road against Purdue Fort Wayne, 67-66 back on Dec. 7. The two teams met on March 1, resulting in a 68-63 overtime win for the Phoenix. If these two teams meet in the final, it should be quite close.
Sun Belt
James Madison (49.9%) Troy (16.3%) Arkansas State (14.6%) Coastal Carolina (12.7%) Old Dominion (3.3%) Louisiana (1.8%) Marshall (0.5%) Georgia Southern (0.4%) ULM (0.3%) Georgia State (0.2%) App State (0.2%) Texas State (0.1%) Southern Miss (0.1%) South Alabama ( Read More Details
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