Lammy and Trump – the odd couple whose tensions will shape UK foreign policy ...Middle East

When Sir Keir Starmer arrived in Kyiv last Thursday, he declared – via his X account – that his visit symbolised “peace through strength”.

The use of this slogan, borrowed directly from the man about to become US president for the second time – and also repeated in a Fox News opinion piece by Starmer’s pick for US ambassador Lord Mandelson – was seen by diplomatic observers as deliberate.

Not only did it apparently seek to flatter Donald Trump by echoing his language, it also sent a message that Britain, with its allies on the Continent, is determined to show the new president that Europe is strengthening its sense of unity against Moscow.

This was designed to show Trump, who has expressed concerns about underspending of European Nato countries on defence, and has repeatedly dropped hints about pulling the plug on Ukraine, that the UK and its EU neighbours can provide a bulwark against Russia.

As Foreign Secretary and the UK’s top diplomat, David Lammy is the man who has to balance the competing interests of Britain’s relationship with Europe – which are undergoing a “reset” under the Starmer government – and the special relationship with the US under Trump and his pick for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.

Significantly, Lammy was sent out to represent the Government on the morning of Trump’s inauguration by appearing on the agenda-setting 8:10am slot on BBC Radio 4’s flagship news programme, Today.

Allies of Lammy say the Foreign Secretary is looking forward to working with Rubio, who is seen in Whitehall as a sensible, straightforward politician with whom the UK can get along.

Lammy’s relations with the new president himself, and his vice president JD Vance, are well-established after the Tottenham MP spent time in opposition building contacts with that team.

The Foreign Secretary and the man he once described as a “Nazi sympathiser” make an unlikely odd couple on the world stage, but they got on well at their dinner with Starmer in New York in September, and Trump later praised Lammy, suggesting that he sees those remarks as in the past.

Yet, in recent weeks the Foreign Secretary has toughened his language about some aspects of Trump’s foreign affairs strategy – suggesting the next four years are not going to be a smooth ride.

Here is how Starmer, Lammy and other key UK government figures are preparing for Trump’s arrival.

In his confirmation hearing last week, Rubio underscored how China will be the main foreign affairs priority of the second Trump administration, saying the US will “have to deal” with Beijing invading Taiwan before the end of this decade.

This comes just as the UK is re-establishing ties with China, including the recent visit by Chancellor Rachel Reeves to Beijing and the Foreign Office’s ongoing “audit” of relations with the communist state.

But diplomatic insiders insist there is no conflict between the UK and US approach towards China, given how often the British Government repeats its mantra that it will “challenge” as well as compete and cooperate with the regime.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer during a bilateral meeting with President Xi Jinping of China at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in November (Photo: Stefan Rousseau/PA)

The US’s increasing focus on the Indo-Pacific does, however, explain why the UK Government is seeking to bolster alliances in Europe – not to turn away from Trump but to show the president-elect that the eastern flank of Nato is solid.

Starmer has strengthened the UK’s relations with President Emmanuel Macron’s government in France, and following the PM’s visit to Kyiv last Thursday he travelled to Poland, one of the most important European nations for defence, where he and Prime Minister Donald Tusk signed a new bilateral security treaty.

Ed Arnold, European security senior research fellow at think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said Starmer’s trip to Ukraine – his first since arriving in Downing Street six months ago – appeared timed to send a message to Trump that Europe was strengthening ties in the face of Russia.

He said: “I think this is all about sort of creating a leadership grouping within Europe, probably in addition to Nato, to try and weather the expected unpredictability of Trump in the next four years.

“My concern about it is that they don’t seem to have much of an agenda and an agreed position. It’s more just hoping that the more discussions, the more meetings that we have at these levels, somehow a strategy might develop.

“I see Europeans now basically doing four years of Trump contingency planning in a two-month transition window. There was not much ahead of the election.

“There were discussions and conversations, but there’s nothing concrete to say, ‘Okay, if Trump gets back in, this is our position’.”

He added: “Whether it’s designed that way or it’s just a product of this trip … if Trump takes notice of it, there will be an element of him saying, ‘Yes, you know, the Europeans are scared of what I’m going to do, the Europeans are getting their act together’.

“I think Trump quite likes the fact that personally, that the Europeans are running around because they’re worried what he’s going to do.”

But there have also been recent diplomatic efforts to remind the incoming president and his administration that the war in Ukraine – which Trump has previously claimed he can end in a day before watering this down – matters to global stability.

Dame Barbara Woodward, the UK’s ambassador to the UN, told the UN Security Council in New York at the end of last week that the participation of North Korean troops in Russian combat operations, and Moscow’s emboldening of regimes in Pyongyang and Tehran, had “direct implications for global security”.

She added: “This reckless behaviour is not just a significant concern for Ukraine’s security, it is a concern for us all.”

On the Middle East, where a tentative ceasefire was due to start on Sunday, the policies of the UK and US diverge.

Under the Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary, the British Government has taken a much more critical approach to Israel.

Lammy told the Commons last week that the last few months had been “the most challenging political environment for this conflict, partly because there was an election in the United States for much of 2024 and had we been able to achieve a more bipartisan approach sooner, we might have seen the pressure that was necessary to bring both parties to the deal that we have finally reached”.

But Lammy is also understood to be hopeful of Trump revitalising his Abraham Accords, which had begun to normalise Israeli relations in the Middle East, as well as a possible track for a two-state solution.

The Foreign Secretary was more blunt about Trump’s threats over Greenland, saying earlier this month that his refusal to rule out military action was “destabilising” rhetoric.

Yet, there are also signs of the Starmer Government trying to placate Trump on the foreign policy agenda – last week Downing Street announced that the deal with Mauritius over the Chagos islands would be put on hold to allow the incoming president to review it.

Sir Peter Westmacott, a former UK ambassador to Washington, said British ministers, diplomats and officials should be prepared to challenge Trump and his team when necessary.

Westmacott has told a forthcoming edition of Politico’s Westminster Insider podcast: “My view is that what will matter – more with this president-elect than most others – is to establish early on a relationship of trust and mutual respect.

“That doesn’t mean agreeing with everything Trump throws at you. It means drawing on his known affection for the UK, and its Royal Family, to make clear when you do agree and when you don’t.

“And when you don’t, stand your ground, marshal your arguments, avoid special pleading but try to cast your differences in ways which reflect what’s good for America as well as what’s good for the UK. Never forget that this president will be, above all, transactional.”

Defence

The key strategic defence headache for the UK Government when it comes to the Trump administration is what the new president will do about Ukraine.

Despite Trump’s rhetoric over the past couple of years of suggesting a withdrawal of support for Ukraine, insiders are more hopeful that there will be a difference between the man as campaigner and as second-term president.

A western official said it was “still early days to know exactly what the new administration’s approach will be, I’m sure that will be revealed pretty quickly”.

They added: “My impression is that they understand the need to show strength to Russia. If you want to get the deal, then you need to ensure the other side, you know, has a reason to come to the table and right now we see no sign that President Putin feels the need to come to the table.”

But, as was revealed last week, talks are already underway in Europe, including between Starmer and Macron, about a possible international peacekeeping force – just in case that deal materialises.

The UK Government is less keen to discuss peacekeepers in public, however, because it risks giving too much away to the Kremlin about the West’s plans.

Arnold warned that there could be difficulties with a multinational peacekeeping force in Ukraine, particularly because some European nations, such as the UK, France and Poland, were in favour but others like Germany and Spain appeared to be against it.

He said: “Nato can’t do it because Putin would never agree to Nato forces within Ukraine.

“So it has to be a coalition of the willing amongst Europeans, and that’s where you’d probably get unity breaking down…

“This situation is just completely different and almost needs a bespoke solution, because any European forces that go into Ukraine, if a war happens between Nato and Russia, those forces would immediately need to turn to combat and effectively assault the Russians from the south.

“This isn’t about putting soldiers in with blue berets and soft skin vehicles patrolling. Whatever force you put in there needs to be actually a very credible combat force.

“And again, the Russians are not going to agree to that, and even if they did, are the Europeans going to agree to that and take forces away from Eastern Europe, I’m not sure… this is totally uncharted territory.”

The UK, along with other Nato allies in Europe, also has to fend off criticism from Trump over the level of defence spending.

The incoming president said earlier this month Nato countries should be spending 5 per cent of GDP, to which Nato secretary general Mark Rutte responded by saying its European members should aim for “north of 3 per cent”.

Starmer has pledged to reach 2.5 per cent, although the timetable to reach that figure has not yet been revealed.

An MoD source stressed that the “US is our closest ally and our close defence relationship will continue”, adding: “On spending, we all recognise defence spending needs to increase and we’ve got a cast iron commitment to hitting 2.5 per cent”.

In a piece for Fox News on Friday, Lord Mandelson, the incoming ambassador to Washington, said the US was “right to ask if Nato partners can do more to reduce the US’s outsized burden”.

Trade

Ministers are more hopeful of a smoother ride with the incoming US trade chief, Jamieson Greer, who has previously suggested he would be in favour of striking a deal with the UK despite Trump’s threat of tariffs on a string of countries.

Jonathan Reynolds, the Business Secretary, and trade minister Douglas Alexander have both sounded positive in recent interviews about the outlook on trade from the incoming administration.

There has already been some contact between both teams on an unofficial level.

Discussions have centred around possible deals on digital technology and services. Yet there are concerns among the British farming industry that Greer might push for an agreement over the UK allowing tariff-free access to American meat – which is likely to be controversial given the British ban on chlorinated chicken and hormone-fed beef.

A favourable deal with the US would be crucial for Labour’s growth plans, but observers have pointed out the difficulties of the UK trying to balance new trading relationships with both Washington and Brussels.

Before his appointment as ambassador to Washington, Peter Mandelson insisted that this balancing act could be achieved.

Mandelson’s start date in Washington has not been set – it had been expected shortly after Trump’s inauguration, but the Labour peer himself told Times Radio earlier this month that there was a lot of “bureaucracy” around the post to wade through.

In his piece for Fox News, Mandelson said the UK was “hungry to trade more and innovate more with America – but we must do so in a way that generates good, well-paid jobs for all our citizens and keeps us ahead in the global race”.

He added: “As only two western countries on the planet with trillion-dollar tech sectors, we must do more together to invent, develop and industrialize the technologies of tomorrow.”

Addressing the Commons Liaison Committee in December, Starmer made clear that the UK would not be a pushover when it came to trade, saying “we have to make sure that we avoid tariffs” and he was “alive to the dangers” posed by them.

Alexander told Radio 4 last week: “We are open to conversations both in relation to the reset with Europe, which continues to be a priority for the Government, and of course we want to look at ways we can deepen our partnership with the United States and with other major trading economies.

“You need to differentiate candidate Trump from president Trump, let’s see what he says and indeed what he does when he’s inaugurated next Monday.”

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