The 2025 season is right around the corner, making it a great time to take a look at who might lead the SEC in passing this fall.
By breaking down efficiency and volume metrics from previous years, we can attempt to predict who will have the most prolific season among SEC quarterbacks for 2025.
This piece will do just that, although it will only aim to predict the SEC’s leaders in total passing yardage — not necessarily the most efficient or most effective — during the regular season.
SEC football predictions: Top 5 passing leaders for 2025
Here’s a look at the top 5:
No. 5: John Mateer, Oklahoma
New Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer cracks the list at No. 5 overall. He was extremely efficient at Washington State last season and threw for over 3,000 yards. The recent track record for Group-of-5 quarterbacks transferring to the SEC has been pretty good in terms of maintaining efficiency.
Ben Arbuckle is also now in Norman, which will certainly help with Mateer’s transition. My lone concern with Mateer cracking the top-5 has to do with play style. Will the Sooners run it too often — either with Mateer or Jadyn Ott — to climb this high in the passing yardage rankings? It’s possible. But OU has a very tough schedule, which could lead to a higher pass rate late in games. I think Mateer will do enough to approach 3,000 passing yards during the regular season, which should be sufficient.
No. 4: Austin Simmons, Ole Miss
It’s hard to justify putting Simmons any lower on this list than here. Ole Miss doesn’t throw it quite as often as Lane Kiffin’s reputation may suggest, but Jaxson Dart did lead the SEC in regular-season passing yards in 2024 and finished in the top-6 in each of the 2 prior years. The key to getting enough passing volume has been tempo — the Rebels are 1st in the SEC in total plays run since the start of the 2020 season.
That kind of pedigree is impossible to ignore as Simmons steps into the starting role. Simmons looked great in limited reps last season and reports this offseason have suggested there’s reason for optimism with him under center this fall. Even if he doesn’t quite match Dart’s efficiency rating, which led the SEC in 2024, Simmons should see enough volume to crack the top-5 in SEC passing yards.
No. 3: Austin Mack, Alabama
This is the kind of prediction that will look real silly if Ty Simpson ends up winning the starting job, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take. Even by Ryan Grubb’s own admission, Mack is the best pure passer Alabama has right now. He also has more familiarity in Kalen DeBoer’s offense than Simpson does as he was with Washington in 2023 before transferring to Alabama.
I expect Mack will ultimately win this job even if it takes a game or 2. Simpson has never been impressive in game reps, even in mop-up duty. Mack profiles as a potentially elite passer, which is a fun proposition in a Kalen DeBoer offense. In 2023 at Washington, DeBoer called an offense that featured a 4,900-yard passer in Michael Penix Jr. That’s unlikely to be replicated in Year 1 as an SEC starter, but all the ingredients are here for Mack to have one of the best seasons in the SEC — if he can win the starting job.
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No. 2: Arch Manning, Texas
This is a bit of a leap of faith with Manning not having much of a track record at the SEC level. But the former 5-star quarterback will finally have a clear runway to a starter’s workload this season after backing up Quinn Ewers the last couple of years. It certainly helps that Texas has a very easy SEC slate (on paper) with games against Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Kentucky and Arkansas all on the schedule.
Ewers battled injuries and inefficiency issues last season and still managed to throw for 2,307 yards in 10 regular season games. If Manning stays healthy, there’s every reason to believe he will be given the opportunity to have a prolific season. Texas was 4th in pass play rate last year amongst SEC teams and that was with a passing offense that was relatively ineffective for stretches of the season. If Manning lives up to the hype, I expect Steve Sarkisian to dial up a lot of plays for him.
No. 1: Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
This is a chalk pick, but Nussmeier is the clear choice for No. 1 on this list for a bunch of different reasons. He finished 2nd in total passing yards during the regular season a year ago, finishing only behind Dart. He threw for 3,739 yards last season and still has plenty of room to grow from an efficiency standpoint.
Nussmeier had a dead-end throw rate of 49.9% last year, which isn’t great, but it’s not bad either. He ranked 40th out of 122 qualified FBS quarterbacks last season in that stat. With another year of experience, he should be able to improve his efficiency.
But the No. 1 reason to feel good about Nussmeier leading the SEC in passing is volume. During last year’s regular season, he attempted 491 passes. Only one other SEC quarterback (Carson Beck) was even over 365. LSU had a pass play rate of nearly 57% on first and second down last season — the national average is 45.3%. The Tigers are gonna sling the ball around the yard a lot this season and I think Nussmeier’s numbers will make the necessary improvements to have a prolific season.
Honorable mentions: Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green, Mizzou quarterback Beau Pribula and Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton.
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