We look ahead to this Group H match at the 2025 Club World Cup with our Real Madrid vs Pachuca prediction and preview.
Real Madrid vs Pachuca Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer makes Real Madrid big favourites to get their first win of the tournament, with Los Blancos victorious in 78.3% of simulations. This is the second meeting between these two sides, just six months after the first. Real Madrid have converted only two of their last six penalty attempts in all competitions (excl. shootouts), dating back to March.Real Madrid and Pachuca had never faced one another before December 2024, but Sunday will see them play for the second time in around six months.
The Spanish giants won 3-0 in the Intercontinental Cup at the end of last year, with Kylian Mbappé, Rodrygo and Vinícius Júnior finding the net at the Lusail Stadium in Qatar.
This next meeting will be on Matchday 2 of the FIFA Club World Cup, with both looking for their first win of the tournament at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Madrid were held to a 1-1 draw by Al-Hilal in their first game, despite the impressive Gonzalo García putting them ahead at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. A Rúben Neves spot-kick denied them the win, while Federico Valverde saw a late penalty saved for the La Liga side.
Valverde’s miss from the spot means Real Madrid have converted only two of their last six penalty attempts in all competitions (excl. shootouts), dating back to March.
That draw ended a run of 11 straight wins in the Club World Cup (including previous formats) for Los Blancos, ending the longest winning run by any side in the tournament’s history. It was the first time Real Madrid failed to win a Club World Cup match since 2000 (1-1 vs. Necaxa, lost 4-3 on penalties).
On the plus side, García (21 years, 86 days) scored in his first start for the club, the fourth-youngest player to do so for Real Madrid in all competitions since 2009-10, after Jude Bellingham (20 years, 44 days), Marco Asensio (20 years, 201 days) and Dani Ceballos (21 years, 47 days).
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2 days ago Robbie DunneMbappé missed Madrid’s opening game with a fever, which ultimately led to him being admitted to hospital with acute gastroenteritis, though he was discharged on Thursday. The club said in a statement that the French striker “will continue with specific medical treatment and will gradually return to team activity”, so his involvement on Sunday seems unlikely.
Pachuca were beaten 2-1 by Salzburg on MD 1, with Bryan González equalising for the Mexican side after Oscar Gloukh put the Austrians ahead. However, Karim Onisiwo won it for Salzburg in the second half, and now Pachuca likely need to beat Real Madrid to keep their slim qualification hopes alive.
González’s goal came from a direct free-kick, the first direct free-kick scored at the 2025 Club World Cup from the tournament’s 14th set-piece attempt.
Former West Bromwich Albion and Everton striker Salomón Rondón could be a threat to Madrid’s relatively inexperienced centre-back pairing of 22-year-old Raúl Asencio and 20-year-old Dean Huijsen. The Venezuelan attempted four shots against Salzburg, the joint-most in the match, including one that hit the post.
Real Madrid vs Pachuca Prediction
The Opta supercomputer believes Real Madrid will get their first win of this Club World Cup. Xabi Alonso earns his first victory as manager in 78.3% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations. Pachuca get an unlikely win in 8.2% of sims, while the remaining 13.5% see Madrid held to another draw.
Despite their MD 1 draw, Real Madrid are still favourites to progress from Group H, successfully doing so in 88% of simulations. Pachuca only managed to do so in 4.1% of sims.
Real Madrid vs Pachuca Squads
Real MadridThibaut Courtois, Andriy Lunin, Fran González, Sergio Mestre, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, David Alaba, Lucas Vázquez, Fran García, Antonio Rüdiger, Ferland Mendy, Dean Huijsen, Youssef Enríquez, Jacobo Ramón, Diego Aguado, Raúl Asencio, Jesús Fortea, Jude Bellingham, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde, Luka Modric, Arda Güler, Dani Ceballos, Chema Andres, Víctor Muñoz, Mario Martin, Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, Rodrygo, Endrick, Gonzalo García, Brahim Díaz
Head Coach: Xabi Alonso
PachucaSebastián Jurado, Carlos Moreno, José Eulogio, Sergio Barreto, Alonso Aceves, Eduardo Bauermann, Bryan González, Carlos Sánchez, Federico Pereira, José Castillo, Gustavo Cabral, Luis Rodríguez, Jorge Berlanga, Pedro Pedraza, Santiago Homenchenko, Israel Luna, Agustín Palavecino, Javier Eduardo López, Alan Bautista, Brian García, Elías Montiel, Víctor Guzmán, Emilio Rodríguez, Illian Hernández, John Kennedy, Oussama Idrissi, Alexéi Domínguez, Salomón Rondón, Kenedy, Avilés Hurtado.
Head Coach: Jaime Lozano
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
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Real Madrid vs Pachuca Prediction: 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Preview Opta Analyst.
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