CLEVELAND — Four times during last year’s National League Division Series between the Dodgers and San Diego Padres, Tanner Scott faced Shohei Ohtani. Four times he struck out Ohtani, making the best hitter in the National League look overmatched.
That was the reliever who came to mind when the Dodgers signed Scott to a four-year, $72 million contract, one of the most lucrative deals ever given to a reliever. That is not the reliever they have seen so far this season.
“I think, performance-wise, he hasn’t performed the way any of us expected, him included,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts acknowledged even before Scott let a lead get away Wednesday against the Cleveland Guardians.
That was Scott’s fifth blown save already this season, the third in his past five appearances. Over the previous two seasons, Scott had a total of six blown saves in 34 save opportunities with the Miami Marlins and Padres. His ERA this season is an unsightly 4.62 after being charged with 10 runs in his past 4⅔ innings.
If a big contract creates big expectations of any player, it almost demands that a reliever be perfect.
“Yes, it does. And you can look at any big contract and that’s unrealistic,” Roberts agreed. “I think for me we signed him to take the baseball, to pitch in whatever role. He’s doing that. And also the point is, we’re betting on him not just for the season but for the postseason.
“I do think a guy that has taken the baseball deserves some grace in the infancy of his contract. Because he’s not perfect. He’s never going to be perfect.”
Scott doesn’t claim to be – or expect to be. He looks at his first two months as a Dodger realistically.
“There’s been some good. There’s been some bad. I like seeing more good, obviously,” he said. “But if I was only seeing good, baseball wouldn’t be baseball, right?”
The bad happens when he is “missing locations,” Scott said. But the reality inside Scott’s results is more complicated than that.
Scott evolved into an elite reliever by throwing more strikes. He walked 5.8 batters per nine innings during his first six seasons with the Baltimore Orioles and Marlins. He cut that number to 3.2 in the three seasons that have followed.
This year, he is throwing even more strikes, a career-high 59.1% of his pitches and only three walks in 25⅓ innings. But those pitches are being hit more often (a career-low 26.2% swing-and-miss rate) and hit harder more frequently (career highs of 9.2 barrel percentage and an average of 91.6 mph exit velocity on balls put in play).
Scott’s issues come down to “not missing in the right spots,” according to Dodgers pitching coach Mark Prior. When Scott misses his spot, it hasn’t been out of the strike zone resulting in walks. It has been within the strike zone – but into a spot where the hitter can do damage.
Prior would like to see Scott throw more balls out of the strike zone, particularly when he has count leverage. The two-run, game-tying single Scott gave up in Cleveland on Wednesday came on a 1-and-2 slider that caught the outside corner. Nolan Jones was able to reach it and slap it through the left side. The game-tying single he gave up to Tyrone Taylor in the ninth inning against the New York Mets on Friday also came on a 1-and-2 slider, this one catching too much of the outer half of the plate.
“I wouldn’t say he’s been a guy who has Kershaw’s command or somebody of that caliber,” Prior said. “Right now, he’s missing on the outer halves of the plate or he’s missing down when he’s supposed to be up or vice versa. So I think that’s probably a little out of whack. And he’s gotten into some predictable patterns that we’re trying to clean up.”
Scott is a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his four-seam fastball and slider almost exclusively.
“The velocity is down a little bit, so obviously these guys get that fraction of a second longer,” Prior said. “And he’s in the zone more when he needs to be out of the zone, therefore it creates more contact.
“Then you layer on where it’s like, ‘Hey, it’s heaters early, spin late’ and it’s in zone so they have a better idea of what’s coming so they’re guessing right and he’s leaving it in spots where he’s going to make himself vulnerable.”
Prior describes it as a triangle “where instead of pushing everything away from the center, he’s kind of pushing everything in.”
“What I mean by that is – they have a better idea of what’s coming and he’s leaving it in spots where they can make contact and they can make harder contact versus expanding a little more, putting a little more doubt of what pitch might be coming, putting it a little more on the edges if not out of zone,” he said. “Then if they do make contact it’s more weak contact or presumably we get more (swing-and-)miss in those situations.”
Scott’s struggles come at a time when injuries have left Roberts with very limited options in high-leverage situations. Evan Phillips, Kirby Yates, Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech or even Brusdar Graterol might be getting called upon in save situations while Scott works out his issues. But all of those relievers are on the injured list.
“I don’t know if I come in with expectations of what guys are going to be. I think we just stick to the process and at the end of the year we can probably answer that question better,” Prior said. “Especially relievers. At times they can be so volatile. You can have a good 10-day run and then all of sudden he’s had a couple rougher ones. It is what it is.
“But he’s working hard and he’s going to get to the point where he is the guy everyone expects him to be or is accustomed to seeing from last year.”
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