We analyse what the 2024-25 Premier League table looks like based on Opta’s expected points model; put crudely, what the table ‘should’ look like based on each team’s underlying numbers.
The latest Premier League campaign is in the books.
Liverpool were runaway champions. They’ll be joined in the Champions League next season by Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea and Newcastle – who finished second through fifth – as well as Tottenham, who qualify as a result of winning the Europa League. At the other end of the table, we said goodbye to the three promoted teams for the second consecutive season.
The final standings are irrefutably set in stone. But how well do they reflect the teams’ actual performances across the campaign? Football is full of variation – it’s a sport of marginal moments, even over 38 games. That can mean even final league positions don’t always tell the full story of a season.
That’s where expected points come in. Based on Opta’s model, we can get a better sense of which teams may have overachieved or underperformed relative to the chances they created and conceded.
Before you say it, yes, we know real-life points count for infinitely more than expected points. But the underlying data can help augment the story of the season and can be used to see which sides perhaps got lucky or unlucky over the course of the campaign.
So, how does it work? Opta’s expected points model simulates the number of goals scored in each match using the expected goals (xG) value of every shot. It then simulates the outcome (win/draw/loss) 10,000 times per match. Each team’s expected points are calculated based on how often they win, draw, or lose across those simulations.
It’s not an exact science, as expected goals data doesn’t include a lot of factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots.
Nevertheless, it’s still a decent barometer for how teams performed over the course of the 2024-25 campaign.
The first graphic shows how the final standings might have looked if the season was decided by underlying numbers rather than final scores.
And the second graphic effectively does the same thing, but rather than show expected final position, it shows each side’s expected points tally and how those differed from their actual output. Let’s analyse the results.
The Title
No changes here. Liverpool have clearly been the best team in the league this season and the expected points model agrees. They ended up finishing 10 points ahead of Arsenal in the real standings and the expected points model also had the gap around that mark (9.8 points). All in all, it’s a very deserving second Premier League title for Arne Slot’s men.
The positive difference between Liverpool’s xG for and xG against (+44.8) is a huge 18.5 better off than the next-best team (Arsenal – 26.3). There’s no doubting their title credentials.
Relegation
Again, no changes here — the three relegated teams were comfortably the worst performers in the league, both in terms of actual points and underlying numbers.
The data suggests that Ipswich Town, Leicester City and Southampton all underperformed slightly relative to their expected points. Each should have collected more than they ultimately did.
Southampton, in particular, can feel slightly hard done by. Their final points total of 12 was 11.6 points below what their xG data indicates they deserved. Given that, they probably shouldn’t have spent so much of the season flirting with Derby County’s record-low haul of 11 points from 2007-08.
The model had Ipswich and Leicester swapping places, but at this point, who’s really counting?
Champions League Qualification
According to the expected points model, the three remaining Champions League qualification places went to the ‘right’ teams and in the ‘right’ order. Overall, there was very little to separate the trio of Manchester City (65.5 pts), Chelsea (64.5) and Newcastle United (64.3) over the course of the campaign.
Going into the final day, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest were both very much also in the hunt for Champions League qualification.
Villa ended up finishing sixth, which was one spot higher than their placing in the expected points table. Unai Emery’s side earned roughly seven points more in the actual Premier League table than their underlying performance data suggested they ought to have, although they were dealt a very tough hand on the final day, with Morgan Rogers’ goal against Manchester United incorrectly ruled out when the score was 0-0.
Who Were Fortunate?
Nottingham Forest were the season’s biggest overachievers. Their seventh-place finish secures a return to European competition for the first time since 1995-96 — a remarkable achievement under Nuno Espírito Santo, especially given pre-season predictions that they’d struggle again, as they had done in 2023-24.
That said, the underlying numbers suggest they rode their luck at times. Over the course of the campaign, Forest conceded more expected goals than they generated, hinting at a performance level that may not accurately match their final league position.
Forest finished with a goal difference of +12, but a -2.9 expected goals difference. That’s a swing of about 15 goals, by far the largest difference of any team in the Premier League.
The expected points table has Nottingham Forest as finishing 13th, six places and 14.6 points worse off than their actual final standing. Of course, Forest fans won’t care one bit and nor should they. Plus, it’s also worth noting that Forest’s style of play often invites pressure and opposition chances but that is by design. The expected points table doesn’t fully take that into account.
Who Were the Unluckiest?
Bournemouth can perhaps feel the most aggrieved. Despite finishing ninth in the table, the underlying data suggests their performances were strong enough for a sixth-place finish, a position that would have secured Europa League football. That three-place gap between their actual and expected finish was the second largest of any team in the league.
Crystal Palace (finished 12th) should have also been able to talk about a top-half finish, according to their xG data. They came eighth in the expected points table, with that four-place difference the most of any side in the division this season. We suspect they will be more than content with the FA Cup as a consolation, though.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Which Premier League Teams Finished in Wrong Position According to Opta’s Expected Points Table? Opta Analyst.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Which Premier League Teams Finished in Wrong Position According to Opta’s Expected Points Table? )
Also on site :
- Trump announces new round of US-China trade talks
- Iconic ‘80s Actor, 76, Is Unrecognizable Nearly 35 Years After 'Dallas’
- 'Days of Our Lives' Star, 53, Makes Plea to Fans Ahead of John Black's Funeral