The 2024 election is the latest data point in a trend of increasing Republican support among Latinos. But in a new survey of over 1,450 Latino eligible voters that Professor Roberto Suro and I designed and fielded through USC’s Understanding America Study, a nuanced picture of this tendency emerges.
First, the vote totals. According to our survey, Harris won 59% of all Latinos who voted, while Trump took 38%. However, if we include nonvoters in the calculation, they make up the largest slice of eligible voters, with 40% of Latinos sitting out the election, compared to 36% voting for Harris, 23% for Trump and 1% casting ballots for other candidates.
So it wasn’t Trump, but the couch that won the 2024 Latino vote.
In our survey, contrary to prevalent media narratives, Trump did not win most Latino men, garnering 44% of them versus Harris’ 55%. In comparison, Harris won women by 30 points at 65%, dwarfing Trump’s 35%. However, if we include eligible voters who sat out the election, a different picture emerges: Harris got 36% of Latinas, and 35% of Latinos, Trump got 19% and 28% respectively, while 44% of Latinas and 37% of Latinos abstained.
Rather than Latino males switching to Trump in huge numbers, the key factor in this election was the numbers that did not go out to vote, and most of them were Latina women.
In the face of this it is also key to highlight the ideological differences that emerge between Trump and Harris voters. 71% of Harris Latino voters stated that what happens to Latinos in general affects their lives, while 63% of Trump voters said it would not. This is a first sign that each candidate was talking to a distinct group of voters, with largely diverging views. This data point calls into question the existence of a cohesive Latino voting bloc, bound by their identity.
After the election, the media story has been how macho Latino men turned to Trump because they did not want to vote for a woman. Our analysis shows that in many issues — such as teachers’ roles in affirming young people’s sexuality or debates over “wokeness” — show partisan rather than gendered differences.
Where we did find a gender gap was in gender-based financial expectations and topics relating to men’s role in society. When asked whether pressure to be financially successful weighs more heavily on men than on women, 58% of Latino men agreed compared to only 40% of Latina voters. This 18‐point gap points to a pronounced gendered economic anxiety.
This gets to the central issue with the Democrats’ Latine problem: the Democratic party’s reluctance to engage boldly on economic issues. A political speech that greatly exemplifies this gambit: Hillary Clinton’s claim that “If we broke up the big banks tomorrow…. would that end racism? Would that end sexism?” during the 2016 primary, in a jab against Bernie Sanders.
This quote exemplifies the abandonment of economic issues in favor of lip service to racial and gender equality. While these are worthy causes, it is sad to realize that those policies in the past 12 years have left the American people — including Latines — with little to show for them. Putting identity first and economics second has led to Latines, many of whom are working class, uninspired by the academic takes of an elitist Democratic party. Politicians such as Sen. Ruben Gallego from Arizona have said as much.
As Trump’s gains during the last election show, talking to Latines about improving their material conditions as part of the American people might be the way to go. Rather, the Democrats are stuck in a stereotypical “Chancla-Fiesta” approach that is hyper-fixated on Latinidad and fails to seriously engage with the needs of working-class people.
While the current administration’s actions might turn some Latine voters off — especially if we enter an economic recession, Democrats must talk about economic justice if they want to beat the couch. Or even bring some “Latinos for Trump” back around.
José E. Múzquiz is a Ph.D Candidate in political science and international relations at the University of Southern California and a Fulbright-Garcia Robles Fellow.
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