The AUDUSD has been confined within a narrow 191-pip range between 0.63216 and 0.6513 over the last 28 trading days. That is a relatively tight range, indicative of a market that is unsure of the next shove.
At the center of this range are the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, both of which are now nearly converged at 0.6439. Over the past several days, the price has been fluctuating above and below this moving average cluster, with each break lacking follow-through. Today, the pair has once again moved back below the MAs, tilting the short-term bias back to the downside.
The key question now is: Can sellers hold the price below the MAs and build momentum? The next key technical target comes in at the upward sloping trend line and the recent swing low near 0.6388, which has acted as a floor since last Friday. A break below that level would open the door toward the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.63669. Below that, the support zone between 0.63216 and 0.63437 comes into focus.
On the flip side, a move back above the 100/200-hour MAs at 0.6439 would shift attention to the 200-day moving average at 0.64532. The last four trading days have seen unsuccessful attempts to stay above that key long-term average, including a failed break again during today’s session highs.
Key Technical Highlights (Updated):
Range: 0.63216 to 0.6513 (191 pips over 28 days)
Current resistance zone: 100/200-hour MAs near 0.6439
Upside target if broken: 200-day MA at 0.64532. Tries above the 200 day MA have failed recently.
Initial support: 0.6388 (swing low/floor since last Friday)
Next support: 200-bar MA (4-hour) at 0.63669
Broader support zone: 0.63216–0.63437
Bias: Bearish below 0.6439, with pressure building if 0.6388 fails
This technical standoff continues—momentum favors sellers, but they still need to take out key downside targets to gain clearer control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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