How much could Newcastle spend on a single transfer this summer? ...Middle East

Newcastle United are set for a transformative summer, especially if they clinch a top five place on Sunday.

After three barren transfer windows, the need to revamp their squad is obvious.

If Eddie Howe’s side qualify for the Champions League, that potential rebuild becomes even more exciting.

We asked The i Paper readers for questions and unsurprisingly most focused on transfers.

Here Mark Douglas, our northern football correspondent, answers the best of them.

With the sales of Kelly and Almiron, how much do you think the club have to play with in terms of budget? I’ve heard similar to summer 2023, and then they’ll consider the sale of a Barnes, Willock or Longstaff to take spending north of £150m. Would you say that’s correct? – James

Newcastle’s approach under Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has always been that they will spend what they can. So if headroom hovers around £100m, I think a spend of around £150m feels realistic.

But the word from St James’ Park remains that player trading is a vital component of their business. Howe is reluctant to sell big players – in terms of proper first-teamers who have been sold there is probably only Allan Saint-Maximin that caused a stir externally even if the manager was happy to sanction the deal – and with Newcastle not under pressure it will be interesting to see what happens.

I floated the idea of further interest in Anthony Gordon earlier this week with Chelsea, Arsenal and possibly Liverpool still keen. But it still feels to me as if there are too many moving parts in that to make a deal at £80m (the only price it would make sense to sell at given PSR) – and he has got a big part to play at Newcastle still.

Joe Willock and Harvey Barnes are interesting because in a Champions League campaign (or any type of European campaign) you can’t really afford to let players who might play 15 to 20 Premier League games go because they are likely to be needed with a schedule of three games in a week. It would really depend on the sort of offers you receive, and I’m not sure if anyone is meeting Newcastle’s valuation.

The irony about player trading is that the ones you could make a profit on are exactly the sort Newcastle don’t want to let go.

Wouldn’t it make sense for the club to sign two defenders this summer? One being a centre-back and the other being someone who can play anywhere across the back, since our options mostly consist of 30-somethings with Botman the youngest (25) but prone to long-term injury? – Mike

Good question and yes it certainly would. Newcastle’s centre-back recruitment has been beset by problems spanning over a year now – they have missed out on Tosin Adarabioyo, Marc Guehi, Abdukodir Khusanov and now Dean Huijsen as they look to bring in a really good, pacey centre-back who is the right age.

I think they will finally get their man this summer and they will be pushing hard for Guehi. Bournemouth’s Illia Zabarnyi is another they are keen on and watch out for Jorrel Hato, Ajax’s in-demand 19-year-old. He is coveted by a few Premier League clubs and Newcastle are among that pack.

It wouldn’t surprise me if, after spending big money on a centre-back, Newcastle did look for a “project” player who can play across the backline towards the end of the summer. Given his reputation for sourcing potential, that is where director of football Paul Mitchell’s abilities should really come to the fore.

While the talk has been around a goalkeeper, centre-back and right winger, do you think another pressing need is a central midfielder? With Willock and Longstaff both potentially leaving, I don’t think we can rely on our starting three and Miley to cover a 50+ game season. – Miles

I don’t think it is necessarily a pressing need but it is certainly an area that needs to be looked at and assessed, especially given the demands Howe puts on that department. The way he wants his teams to play, it all starts with the midfield and Newcastle have been lucky this season that Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes have been fit and available for almost all of the games since November.

Lewis Miley needs games and will get them next season. The word from Newcastle is that they still have a huge amount of belief in him but he needs a run of starts.

The interesting one is Sean Longstaff, who hasn’t cut a particularly happy figure this season. When we spoke to him earlier in the campaign after he had been recalled to the team, he mentioned being underappreciated and while an extra year has been triggered on his deal, it might be that he feels he needs to go. He has dropped down the pecking order and isn’t the sort of character who will be happy just picking up his wages.

If he goes, he needs to be replaced, but I think in terms of priorities, centre-back, right winger and striker are in front of central midfielder. That could change if a potential star signing emerges, but I think the really pressing needs lie elsewhere.

What is the max amount you think Newcastle would spend on one player this summer, with the need to get the balance right between signing top quality players and improving as many positions as possible? – Harry

Newcastle may be out of the woods this summer from a profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) perspective but, given they are not yet one of the league’s big revenue generators, it remains a tightrope for them to walk. They have the scope to spend big but as Amanda Staveley pointed out a couple of years ago they can’t afford to sign a dud – and the cost of getting one wrong would be considerable.

From speaking to sources, the rough figures are this: if the Magpies make it into the Champions League they will have PSR headroom of £100m plus.

If they stumble on the final day against Everton – which I don’t think they will – consider that figure closer to £40-50m.

A quick reminder: this is headroom we are talking about, not budget. So for the purposes of PSR, a £100m signing over a five-year contract goes in the books as £20m. The long and short of it, then, is that with Champions League football in the bag Newcastle could – in theory – sign three or four £100m players and probably still get away with being under the PSR calculations for 2025-26.

I don’t think that is realistic, though. For a start, wages are also part of the consideration, and £100m players come with big wages which would give Newcastle problems. They are already close to the Uefa limits.

Secondly, spending all that money maxes out their PSR headroom for the next three years and hugely increases the pressure on them to sell a star asset in future summers. Given Alexander Isak’s situation is likely to come to a head in 2026 (unless he signs a new contract, which I’m not sure he will this summer), they don’t want to be facing turbulence like that.

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So to get back to the original question, I think they will be prepared to spend around £50-60m on one player if it is someone who can really take them forward. Given some of their big domestic targets – think Zabarnyi, Guehi and Bryan Mbeumo – are all going to be priced at about that level, they are going to have to be prepared to spend at that level.

Could they break their transfer record? It is definitely a possibility but the word from Newcastle insiders is that it is not about the prices, it is about the player.

They know there is more value overseas so it may be that if another Isak or Sandro Tonali opportunity presents itself, they will go to that sort of price point. As one source pointed out to me recently: “When the rest of the Premier League was spending £100m, we got a £100m midfielder in Tonali for almost half that.”

My suspicion is that this summer will mirror 2023, especially if Newcastle are in the top five. There will be two or three big deals that really take the club forward – a centre-back, right-sided forward and either a goalkeeper or forward to replace Callum Wilson – and then the rest might depend on outgoings or whether they can get the “project” players they are after.

Either way, with an update on the stadium and new chief executive set to be ticked off in the coming months, it feels like a potentially transformative summer awaits.

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