This Ukraine peace summit has not yet turned into the spectacular win Donald Trump hoped for. While Volodymyr Zelensky has travelled to Turkey, as suggested by Vladimir Putin last week, the Russian leader is nowhere to be seen.
This meeting will not, therefore, provide a springboard to a Nobel Peace Prize which Trump so desperately craves, to match Barack Obama. As with his mediation with Israel over Gaza, which the US President glossed over during his glittering meetings with Arab leaders this week, it is all proving too difficult.
As a result, Trump is slinking away from his boasts that he could sort out two of the world’s major conflicts “alone” and on “day one”. That could be very good news for Ukraine if it finally kills the fading bromance between Trump and Putin. It means the United States may revert to where it was before the Trump 2.0 whirlwind: grudgingly sticking with its allies over the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
A few days ago, after Putin suggested meeting Zelensky in Turkey, Trump backed the Russians on social media: “President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this IMMEDIATELY.”
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Under pressure from the White House, the Ukrainian President agreed to turn up without preconditions. This flattered Trump, with whom the Ukrainian leader had already started to rebuild relations after the low of his Oval Office ambush. Zelensky was essential in helping the President grab the headlines at the Pope’s funeral, with the full consent of the Vatican, by pow-wowing with him in full view of the cameras.
But Putin didn’t turn up on Thursday, and Zelensky described the strikingly low-level Russian delegation fielded as a “theatre prop” and “a sham”. No Putin, no foreign minister Sergey Lavrov; the team is instead officially headed by an obscure former culture minister called Vladimir Medinsky.
It now appears that the Russian President set up these peace talks in the hope of humiliating Zelensky. Had he turned up, the Russian would have been meeting the Ukrainian as an equal. That never seemed likely, and the Kremlin has been quick to mock Zelensky as a “clown” and a “loser”. The most likely scenario is that these talks will not result in a ceasefire but relatively minor agreements, such as the exchange of prisoners of war.
Until Air Force One heads back to the US, there is still a chance that the diplomatic sparring could result in the sort of headline-grabbing drama Trump loves. He said today that he still might go to Istanbul this week, where delegations from Ukraine and Russia are due to meet to discuss ceasefire plans.
That would put him back on centre stage. As he told reporters accompanying him: “Nothing is going to happen until Putin and I get together.” Speaking in Qatar, he held back on criticising the Russians’ no-show today, mumbling: “I don’t think he’s going to go if I don’t go.”
A few months ago, comments from Trump, JD Vance and others suggested that the new US administration had swallowed Russia’s propaganda that Zelensky and his government could be brushed aside. Some even dismissed Zelensky as a “dictator”. No longer.
There is no doubt that Trump’s patience with Putin is fraying. Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio is attending a Nato foreign ministers meeting in Antalaya, Turkey, at which the UK’s David Lammy declared, “We come with one message to stand by Ukraine and ensure that we get a just and lasting, enduring peace.”
The most likely outcome of this week’s drama is that the US will continue to supply and support Ukraine militarily and move towards tougher sanctions on Russia, unless Putin comes to the table with concessions on Russia’s maximalist demands.
Most importantly, Zelensky and Ukraine remain an equal in this great game – he has not been squeezed out by the vanity of the US President or the machinations of the Russian leader.
Adam Boulton presents Sunday Morning on Times Radio
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