With the SEC regular season about to end, it would be great to say that the league picture was crystal clear and that everything was sorted out heading into Hoover and then the NCAA Tournament.
It also would be a tremendous lie.
But entering the final league play of the regular season, here’s a look around the SEC at where things stand — and a few thoughts on where they might be going.
Boyz II Men Teams (The End of the Road)
It’s all over for these squads:
16. South Carolina (27-26, 5-22)
The Gamecocks have lost their last 7 league games and will host LSU to end the regular season. Yes, it’s been a brutal season, but Carolina would be 15th… if not for the weirdest series in the SEC season.
15. Texas A&M (27-23, 10-17)
Fresh off a series win over LSU that seemed to give Texas A&M very solid postseason standing, the Aggies promptly hosted Missouri and not only lost a game, not only lost the series, but were swept by a combined 23-8 margin. In theory, a sweep of Georgia could edge A&M back into the realm of NCAA possibility, but that just doesn’t seem plausible.
14. Missouri (16-35, 3-24)
Break up the Tigers! Yes, a 2-spot jump for a 3-24 team might seem ridiculous, but it would equally have been silly to put the Tigers below a team they just swept on the road. Missouri’s pitching staff still has a horrible ERA over 10 in SEC play, but a few weeks ago, it was over 13 in SEC play.
Willie Nelson Teams (On the Road Again)
This is the ranking section for the teams that will be in the NCAA Tournament, but won’t be hosting, barring something insane:
13. Mississippi State (31-20, 12-15)
Since the firing of Chris Lemonis, Mississippi State has gone 5-1 in league play. Accordingly, they’re turned a shaky NCAA situation into a solid one. Granted, Missouri played the series of its dreams last week, but the Tigers should be a team that State can best to reach 14 or 15 league wins.
12. Oklahoma (32-17, 13-14)
Oklahoma could have been in hosting shape, but they were swept last week by Kentucky and now have to finish the regular season with a Texas team trying to lock down the league crown. Oklahoma should be in the NCAA field even if Texas sweeps, but would probably need a series win over the Horns to get a hosting nod.
11. Kentucky (29-20, 13-14)
On the other hand, Kentucky seemed likely to need wins over Vanderbilt to reach the NCAA field, but a sweep over Oklahoma all but locks down an NCAA bid. A win over Vandy would absolutely lock the NCAA situation down, but Kentucky would need a sweep and/or something wild in Hoover to have a real hosting shot.
10. Ole Miss (35-17, 14-13)
The Rebels have lost their last 2 series matchups which probably knocks them out of hosting range. They host Auburn and a series win could jump them back into regional hosting conversations, but that seems unlikely.
9. Florida (35-18, 13-14)
Florida’s rebound from 1-11 to 13-14 is nothing shy of amazing. A home series with Alabama does give the Gators an outside shot at a hosting nod. It probably would take a sweep, but the possibility of a winning SEC season after a 1-11 start is almost impossible to believe.
John Denver Teams (Country Roads, Take Me Home)
These are teams looking at a hosting set-up, but not lined up for a top 8 super regional spot:
8. Tennessee (40-13, 15-12)
Tennessee has lost its last 4 SEC series matchups heading into this weekend’s series at Arkansas. The Vols are vulnerable to a slide below Florida and/or Ole Miss and possibly losing a regional nod. The immediate question is why. Vanderbilt’s series win and emotional outburst afterword showcased some tough truths. Tennessee is no longer scary, and a big part of the reason is that the Vols are awful at little things. They’re last in the SEC in errors and teams steal bases on the Vols like it’s going out of style. If Tennessee doesn’t clean it up, it’s going to take a lot of homers to overcome bad fundamental baseball.
7. Alabama (39-13, 15-12)
The Tide’s series win over Georgia has them solidly in the regional hosting world. A series win over Florida could still jump Alabama into super regional range. They are an upwardly mobile squad and could still control their own destiny.
Shania Twain Teams (Come on Over, Come on In)
The group for teams with the super regional set-up locked in or within immediate range:
6. Auburn (37-15, 16-11)
Auburn is 7-2 over its past 3 SEC weekends. The Tigers finish up at Ole Miss. Unless they’re swept, they should be good for a top 8 finish. Auburn’s No. 2 RPI certainly doesn’t hurt. Watch Ike Irish and revel at the impressive season these Tigers have stitched together.
5. Georgia (40-13, 16-11)
Georgia comes off a series loss to Alabama and would be vulnerable were it not facing a Texas A&M team that just got steamrolled by the worst team in the SEC. The Bulldogs have the top RPI ranking in the nation and barring a sweep, should also be locked in for a top 8 finish.
4. Vanderbilt (36-16, 16-11)
Fresh off a series win over Tennessee, Vandy finishes the regular season at home against Kentucky. The Commodores are No. 3 in the RPI rankings. The other big story here will be which of the Vandy/UGA/Auburn trio wraps up a No. 4 seed for Hoover. Only having to play potentially 3 games in Hoover would be a define advantage over having to play four as the No. 5 or No. 6 seed.
3. Texas (40-10, 20-7)
Texas went 1-5 in the last 2 SEC matchups. So what’s wrong with the Longhorns? The issue is one of style. Texas is a team built to win professional-looking games. Running through their schedule shows plenty of 6-5 and 3-2 type games. But down the stretch, college baseball doesn’t usually run that way. Teams run deep into pitching staffs and need to put together high-scoring beatdowns. Can Texas be successful down the stretch? It probably depends on whether they can adapt, because 4-3 and 3-2 games probably won’t win in Omaha.
2. Arkansas (41-11, 18-9)
Arkansas has lost 4 of its last 5 series matchups, but that’s a function of a brutal schedule more than issues with their team. A final matchup with Tennessee matches 2 relatively ice-cold teams, but the Hogs seem to be in a better situation heading into postseason.
1. LSU (40-12, 17-10)
LSU meanwhile has won 3 of its last 4 series battles. The Tigers close out at South Carolina and should be able to lock door a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in Hoover and are probably already set for a super regional hosting nod.
SEC Baseball Power Rankings, Week 14: Marching to Hoover and pondering mysteries of Texas and Tennessee Saturday Down South.
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