Aston Villa are rated as clear favourites to beat Tottenham as they look to significantly enhance their Champions League hopes on Friday. Look ahead to the game at Villa Park with our Aston Villa v Tottenham prediction and preview.
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer rates Aston Villa as overwhelming favourites with a 66.3% win probability to Tottenham’s 16%. Spurs have won 11 away Premier League games at Villa Park. Only away to Manchester City (12) do they have a better record. Villa are unbeaten in 20 straight home matches across all competitions, their best streak in 48 years.Aston Villa will look to take advantage of Tottenham’s attention being elsewhere when they meet at Villa Park on Friday, with Champions League qualification still on the agenda for Unai Emery’s men.
This fixture was brought forward to a Friday evening kick-off to allow Spurs more time to prepare for their UEFA Europa League final with fellow Premier League strugglers Manchester United in Bilbao on 21 May.
And Villa, who sit sixth in the Premier League, will hope to have laid down a marker by the time most of their fellow UCL hopefuls are in action.
Emery’s side are certainly in the form to do so. The Villans are unbeaten in their past 20 home games in all competitions (W14, D6), having last put together a longer sequence between September 1976 and May 1977 (24).
Moreover, since the start of March, only Newcastle United (22) have earned more points in the Premier League than Villa (21), who’ve won seven of their eight top-flight matches in that time (L1).
Ollie Watkins will look to continue where he left off with his winner in the 1-0 victory at Bournemouth last time out. That was his 75th Premier League goal and saw him become Villa’s highest goalscorer in the competition.
In contrast to Villa’s rich vein of form, it has been a domestic campaign to forget for Spurs, who sit 17th and are focusing solely on the Europa League.
Ange Postecoglou’s side have won just one of their past 10 Premier League games (D2, L7), beating rock-bottom Southampton 3-1 in April. They have now conceded in 11 straight league games, their longest run without a clean sheet since a stretch of 16 between August and December 2010.
Indeed, Spurs have now lost 24 games in all competitions this season, their second most defeats in a single campaign in their history after 1991-92 (25).
Villa will be without the suspended Jacob Ramsey after he was sent off against Bournemouth, while Marcus Rashford is expected to miss the rest of the season and Youri Tielemans is again doubtful.
Dejan Kulusevski was taken off in Spurs’ defeat to Crystal Palace last time out and won’t play again this season. James Maddison and Lucas Bergvall are also absent.
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Head-to-Head
Aston Villa have won three of their past five Premier League games against Tottenham but have lost the last two. That is more victories than they managed in their previous 21 against Spurs (W2, D3, L16).
Spurs have won 11 Premier League games away to Aston Villa, winning eight of their last nine at Villa Park (L1). Only against Manchester City (12) do they have a better record.
The Villans have lost 4-0 and 4-1 in their previous two Premier League games against Tottenham.
Only against Everton (1891) and Blackburn Rovers (1935-1936) have they conceded four-plus in three consecutive league games against an opponent.
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Prediction
Spurs’ historical record at Villa Park may be good but the Opta supercomputer rates Villa’s chances at a whopping 66.3% from the 10,000 match simulations conducted.
By contrast, Spurs are rated as having just a 16.0% chance of emerging victorious in this one, with the draw occurring in 17.7% of occasions.
Villa sit sixth with two games to go and that is where they are likeliest to finish (37.9%) come a week on Sunday, though they still retain a 26% chance of clinching that all-important fifth spot.
Tottenham’s domestic campaign has been truly dismal. They have a 47.5% chance of finishing exactly where they reside now, in the lowly depths of 17th place.
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Friday, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
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Aston Villa vs Tottenham Prediction Opta Analyst.
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