UK temperatures could edge towards 30°C by early next week but the warmer weather may bring some “vigorous” thunderstorms, the Met Office has warned.
A record-breaking start to May was followed by slightly cooler conditions over the last week.
The mercury then crept back up from highs in the teens up to the low to mid-20s heading into the weekend. Saturday highs are expected to reach 24°C in eastern Wales, the Midlands, East Anglia and southern parts of England.
That trend looks set to continue into at least the first half of next week, with increasing humidity heightening the risk of thunderstorms.
Met Office deputy chief meteorologist Dan Harris said this could make highs of 26 or 27°C a possibility for many on Sunday and Monday, although from Saturday onwards there is also an increasing chance of unsettled weather and isolated thunderstorms.
“From Saturday night, into Sunday morning, there is an increasing chance of rain, showers and isolated thunderstorms moving northwards across the southwest of the UK,” he said.
“As we continue through Sunday and into Monday, this will extend to other western parts of Great Britain and into Northern Ireland too.
“On Monday itself, we could see some particularly vigorous thunderstorms developing, most likely in Wales and parts of southern England, whilst elsewhere during this whole period, dry, fine, and increasingly warm conditions are expected.”
Mr Harris added: “Should these thunderstorms develop, especially on Monday, there is potential for 25-35mm of rain to fall in an hour or so which may lead to some localised surface water flooding. Hail, lightning, and isolated strong wind gusts would be additional hazards.”
Such forecasting remains uncertain, he said, advising that the public stay up to date with any Met Office updates and potential severe weather warnings throughout the weekend.
Highs of 26°C on Sunday are likeliest in southwestern areas like Bristol, the Met Office said, though temperatures in the mid-20s are expected widely across the south in particular.
On Monday, meanwhile, the mercury is expected to reach 27°C in parts of the Midlands and up towards Manchester, but a few other regions across the UK should reach the mid-20s again.
It comes as water companies are preparing for a summer of drought, after the driest start to spring in 69 years. Farmers have warned that some crops are already failing.
There water companies, Yorkshire Water, United Utilities and Severn Trent, have already implemented the first stages of their drought contingency plans, as fears of hosepipe bans increase.
The Met Office defines a heatwave as “when a location records at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold.”
This threshold varies by county, and is set at 25°C for Scotland, Northern Ireland, most of Wales and parts of northern and southwest England.
It’s 26°C for some parts of the north, like Barnsley, as well as areas of Somerset, and 27°C for broader areas of the Midlands, the east and southern England.
The heatwave temperature threshold is highest in an around London, set at 28°C.
UK temperature threshold map by county (Photo: Met Office)Of next week’s spiking temperatures, the Met Office told The i Paper: “Technically it’s not going to be classified as a heatwave, but it’s still a prolonged period of warm weather with above average temperatures over the next five days or so.”
There’s no official definition of a mini-heatwave, but the Met Office forecast predicts that temperatures in parts of the UK could reach or surpass some of these thresholds at some point in the coming days.
Whether or not this happens for three consecutive days in one location to constitute an official heatwave appears unlikely, but remains to be seen.
Five-day forecast
Saturday should be “another fine, warm and dry day for most,” according to the Met Office’s latest forecasts. The far southwest, and the northwest of Scotland, might receive more clouds and a few showers, with risks of thunderstorms developing later in the night.
Those showers, turning heavy and sometimes thundery, are expected to continue in the southwest on Sunday, with the possibility of further, longer spells of rain in Northern Ireland and southwest Scotland.
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It should be “dry, warm and sunny” elsewhere, the forecaster said.
By Monday, however, those heavy and thundery showers that will continue in the southwest may spread further north and east.
Unsettled conditions are predicted to ease through Tuesday, though, before a return to “fine and settled” weather on Wednesday, with the rest of next week expected to bring “dry and largely sunny conditions” to the vast majority of the UK.
Daily high temperatures for many regions are generally expected to remain at or a few degrees above the 20°C mark through next weekend, though parts of the east coast of the UK could be a little cooler, topping out in the high teens.
Beyond this, the Met Office added: “There is an increasingly likelihood that conditions could turn wetter and more unsettled as areas of rain, stronger winds, and possibly thunderstorms begin to approach from the west and/or south.
“Winds will mostly be light otherwise, with daytime temperatures generally above average throughout although there is a chance of some chilly nights in places.”
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