Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa are competing for three spots in next season’s Champions League. But who is best placed to qualify?
While the title race and relegation battle both ended a while ago, the race for Champions League qualification is still very much alive.
Five teams – Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa – are battling for three spaces in Europe’s premier competition in 2025-26, with only four points separating third and seventh spot. With three games remaining, the season is set for a grandstand finish.
Here’s the state of play at the time of writing. Remember, only the teams finishing in positions three, four and five will qualify for next season’s Champions League. Arsenal could still drop out of the top five but the possibility of that is so slim (0.08% according to the Opta supercomputer) that we’ve decided not to interrogate their chances.
So, who is best set to make it? Here, we delve into the reasons for each team from third to seventh to be positive about their chances and why they shouldn’t be. We also compare the relative difficulty of each team’s remaining fixtures and ask the Opta supercomputer for its predictions. Let’s go.
Manchester City
Reasons to be Cheerful
It has been an awful season for City. A long way off their usual levels, they have lost nine of their 35 Premier League games, which is more than the previous two league campaigns put together (8). After winning a record four top-flight titles in a row, they were out of the title race before Christmas presents had even been unwrapped.
However, an awful season for Man City is not like an awful season for others. Despite all those defeats, Pep Guardiola’s men are well on course to secure Champions League qualification, and could even do so by finishing in second place if they can overtake an out-of-form Arsenal side only three points above them.
They’ve hit form at the right time, having won five of their last six games in the league (D1) and seven of their last eight in all competitions.
That has been helped by an improvement defensively. City have conceded 43 goals this season, as many as 14th-place Everton and more than Bournemouth, Forest, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. However, since the start of April, they have only conceded three goals in six league games, fewer than any other team in that time. And one of those goals was a penalty.
Another boost for Guardiola is having Erling Haaland and Rodri back in training. The City boss has stressed he will not rush either back, but it seems likely both will play some part in the run-in. Rodri’s impact speaks for itself as the current Ballon d’Or holder, while Haaland will be looking to add to his 21 goals in 28 Premier League games this season.
With their experience of finishing seasons strongly, as well as a three-point gap to Forest in sixth, City will be very confident of getting over the line and securing UCL football again next season, especially with Kevin De Bruyne, who will leave the club at the end of the season, surely keen to sign off in style. The Belgian scored the winner against Wolves last time out and will be hoping to have even more influence in his final three league games for the club.
Reasons to be Fearful
It has been a season of struggle for City. They may end up with an FA Cup trophy, but as Guardiola himself said recently, that would not be enough to make up for their poor showing in the league or the Champions League.
Their form has improved of late, but even their recent victories haven’t always felt as dominant as we have grown used to seeing with City.
Their 2-0 home win over Leicester City at the start of April wasn’t as emphatic as many expected against a woefully out-of-form opponent; they drew 0-0 at lowly Manchester United in a truly insipid afternoon at Old Trafford; had to come from 2-0 down to beat Crystal Palace at home; left it late to overcome Everton 2-0 at Goodison Park; left it even later at home to Aston Villa when Matheus Nunes scored an injury-time winner; and then secured a 1-0 win at the Etihad over Wolves when only the football Gods will know how the visitors didn’t score.
Vitor Pereira’s side passed up several golden chances, and Matheus Cunha hit the post in the second half. Meanwhile, City only recorded 0.71 xG themselves; only twice in the league this season have they posted a lower xG in a game.
Going the other way, City have been more susceptible this season, too. Six Premier League teams have a lower total xG against than their 45.8, while only seven teams have allowed more than their 86 big chances conceded – a chance from which the opposition would usually be expected to score.
Opta Supercomputer’s Projected Chance of a Top-Five Finish: 97.5%
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Newcastle
Reasons to be Cheerful
On paper, Newcastle have the toughest run-in of all the contenders for a top-five finish (more on that further down), but the Magpies seem to thrive on big-game pressure. This should give them confidence ahead of back-to-back games against Chelsea and Arsenal.
On the whole, their performances against the best Premier League teams this season have been great. Looking at results between the current top seven sides in all competitions this season, Eddie Howe’s side have the best record.
Newcastle have faced other members of the current top seven 15 times in 2024-25 and won eight times. This includes a brilliant 2-1 League Cup final win over Liverpool at Wembley in March, when they sealed their first major domestic silverware in 70 years.
They are the only one of these sides to win more than half of their matches against top-seven opponents (53.3%), including three competitive wins over Arsenal without conceding a single goal. That bodes well for their trip to the Emirates Stadium on 18 May.
Alexander Isak will carry much of their attacking threat, as their only player to reach double figures for goals in all competitions this season (27). There are only five instances of a player scoring more competitive goals in a season while Newcastle have been a Premier League club: Andy Cole in 1993-94 (41), Les Ferdinand in 1995-96 (29) and Alan Shearer’s 28 goals in 1996-97, 1999-00 and 2003-04.
Newcastle have been able to rely on him in the matches against the best Premier League clubs, too. Across competitive appearances against teams in the top seven of the Premier League this season, Isak has scored 10 goals and assisted two more.
Reasons to be Fearful
Newcastle have encountered some issues giving up chances after losing possession in their own third this season.
While opposition sides don’t frequently win the ball high up the pitch against Newcastle – their tally of 280 high turnovers against is the eighth highest in the league – they have conceded a lot of shots from these situations.
Only bottom side Southampton (68) and Brentford (65) have faced more shots following a high turnover of possession in the Premier League this season than Newcastle (58). They are one of only three clubs to see more than 20% of high turnovers by opponents lead to shots, too.
This was a particular issue in the recent heavy defeat to Aston Villa, when Villa had five attempts following a high turnover and scored one of their four goals in this manner. Another recent example was when Forest had four shots after Newcastle gave away possession in their own third in their meeting at the end of February, scoring one.
This could be a problem against Arsenal and Chelsea. Only Man City and Bournemouth have made more high turnovers in the Premier League this season than Mikel Arteta’s side (305), while Chelsea (52) are only of only two sides to have attempted 50+ shots following a high turnover, ranking behind only Bournemouth (65) and Liverpool (58) in the category.
To add a further worry, one of their most important players could be missing for these two games, as Joelinton is still struggling with a knee injury.
When he missed a three-game sequence against Man City, Forest and Liverpool back in February, Newcastle conceded nine goals – 20% of their total for the whole season.
Opta Supercomputer’s Projected Chance of a Top-Five Finish: 76.4%
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Chelsea
Reasons to be Cheerful
Chelsea appear to have momentum on their side. They are on a six match unbeaten run in the league and have won three games in a row for only the third time all season. Following a run of just four wins and six defeats in their previous 13 games, it appears as though their season is back on track.
With Nicolas Jackson fit and firing again after a hamstring injury ruled him out of action through February and March, Chelsea’s form has taken a turn for the better. Hell, even Cole Palmer, who went 18 games without a goal between January and May, ended his drought in the 3-1 win over Liverpool on Sunday.
That victory will have given the whole team a huge confidence boost heading into the final three games of the season. Their performance at Stamford Bridge was the most complete and fluent Chelsea have put together in months, and it came against the best team in the Premier League in 2024-25 – even if the champions could afford to take their foot off the gas with nothing to play for.
It was the first time that Chelsea had scored more than two goals in a Premier League game against anyone other than Southampton – one of the worst teams in Premier League history – since 20 January when they beat a Wolves side only outside the relegation zone on goal difference 3-1, and the first time against a team who ended the day in the top half of the table since beating Brighton in late September. Manager Enzo Maresca will hope that that performance is a sign of things to come.
Chelsea’s most noticeable recent improvement has come at the back, with their mean(er) defence the foundation of their form recovering. They have conceded only five goals in their last nine Premier League games (0.6 goals conceded per game), keeping clean sheets in five (55.6%) of their games. Previously, they had conceded 36 in 26 games (1.4 goals conceded per game) and kept just clean sheets in just four (15.4%) of their games.
Liverpool needed a set-piece to break Chelsea down, and that sturdy defence could be key to their chances of securing a top-five finish.
Reasons to be Fearful
Chelsea have been on a good run of form of late but they haven’t exactly been massively convincing. Since the start of March, there have been single-goal home wins over Leicester, Tottenham and Everton as well as a 2-2 draw against a soon-to-be-relegated Ipswich. On the road, they required a 93rd-minute winner to narrowly edge out Fulham, drew 0-0 at Brentford and fell to defeat while being thoroughly outplayed by Arsenal.
It doesn’t bode well then that they have such a tough-looking final three games, with trips to fellow Champions League chasers Newcastle and Nottingham Forest either side of a home game against Manchester United. The only saving grace is that United have absolutely nothing to play for domestically and will be fully focused on the Europa League final.
Based on the average Opta power rating of each remaining opponent (more on this below), only Newcastle have a more difficult remaining set of fixtures than Chelsea. With only two points between themselves in fifth and Forest in sixth, there really isn’t much room for error.
Chelsea’s form has almost perfectly mirrored the form of star man Palmer, and although he ended his goal drought against Liverpool on Sunday, he needed a penalty to do so, and there haven’t been many signs that he could get back to anything like his best for these three crucial games. Without him playing well, Chelsea could struggle to get enough points against three tricky opponents.
Opta Supercomputer’s Projected Chance of a Top-Five Finish: 66.0%
AT
Nottingham Forest
Reasons to be Cheerful
For so long, Forest looked almost destined to enjoy one of the greatest achievements in Premier League history as they cemented themselves in the race for Champions League football.
Sadly, from a neutral’s perspective, their form has suffered lately and they head into the final three matchdays in sixth – finish there and there’ll be no return to Europe’s top table. Make no mistake, it’ll be a huge disappointment given what this season seemed to promise.
However, this will be a campaign that lives long in the memory of Forest fans regardless of what happens over the next few weeks.
If you’d told supporters this time last year that they’d end the 2024-25 season with European qualification, they’d have questioned your sanity. And yet, they need just two points to ensure they go into the UEFA Conference League at the very least.
Considering they finished 17th last term, 2024-25 will have been an immense success whichever way you slice it.
Of course, Champions League football is still very attainable, and despite now being on the outside looking into the top five, the fixture list leaves them in a decent position. Games against Leicester (H) and West Ham (A) are eminently winnable, and although their meeting with fellow UCL hopefuls Chelsea on the final day is hardly ideal, it’ll take place at a raucous City Ground.
There’s a very good chance Forest will take maximum points from their clashes with Leicester and West Ham. After all, only the current top four have bettered their record of 2.28 points per game against opposition in the bottom half of the table this term.
That alone may not be enough, but should ensure they’re still in with a fighting chance, with their rivals generally having more difficult ends to the season.
But even if Forest ultimately fall short of UCL qualification, this season has still been a wild ride and they are all but certain to enjoy European football in 2025-26. If that’s not a reason to be cheerful, we’re not sure what is.
Reasons to be Fearful
As alluded to, Forest’s form has suffered over the past month or so.
On 4 April, the Opta supercomputer gave Nuno Espírito Santo’s men a 91.5% chance of finishing in the top five. But the following day, they lost 2-1 to Aston Villa, and their form’s not really recovered.
They have won only won and lost three of their past five Premier League games, and this has contributed to a rocky run at home too, suffering back-to-back defeats in their own stadium.
While it’s all well and good highlighting a relatively kind end to the season with their fixtures, Forest have the least momentum of the five sides currently battling it out, taking just four points from their past five games. Villa, Chelsea, Newcastle and Man City have all won at least three times over the same period.
Forest’s bid to maintain their top-five push hasn’t been helped by the goals drying up somewhat for Chris Wood.
Since netting a hat-trick in the 7-0 demolition of Brighton on 1 February, the Kiwi has scored just two goals in 12 appearances across all competitions.
Forest aren’t a side overflowing with regular goalscorers, either; Anthony Elanga is their second top scorer in the Premier League with six.
If Wood can rediscover his goalscoring touch over the next few weeks, the impact could be significant.
Opta Supercomputer’s Projected Chance of a Top-Five Finish: 44.5%
RB
Aston Villa
Reasons to be Cheerful
Might the fixture list actually do Aston Villa a favour here? On paper, they have what looks like a difficult run-in. They travel to Bournemouth and then Tottenham, before hosting Manchester United on the final day of the season.
But the Europa League final is sandwiched between those games against Spurs and United, who will be facing each other in that final with a chance to salvage their hugely disappointing campaigns. Frankly, there’s no way Spurs are going to put out a first-choice team five days before their biggest game in six years.
Similarly, four days after the final, they face United, who have absolutely nothing to play for in the league. Ruben Amorim’s side will likely find it very hard to get up for what is a dead rubber to them.
Villa also go into the final stretch in excellent form, having won six of their last seven league matches. Since the start of March, only Newcastle and Wolves (both 19) have won more points in the Premier League than Villa’s 18, and Unai Emery’s side have played one fewer game.
Reasons to be Fearful
In a race where Villa are the clear outsiders, you feel like they need to win all three of their remaining matches to have a chance at finishing in the top five. That includes winning away at Bournemouth, who have European ambitions themselves. Andoni Iraola’s side are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games (W2 D3), and play in a way that could match up well against Villa.
The Cherries have taken more shots following high turnovers than any other side in the Premier League this season (65), while Villa have proven themselves susceptible to that style of play, having conceded 134 high turnovers in 2025 alone, the fourth-highest figure in the league.
Emery’s side have also committed 20 errors leading to shots this calendar year – a tally only surpassed by Chelsea (24) and Tottenham (21) – suggesting teams can get plenty of joy by putting Villa’s back four under pressure. Tottenham in particular are likely to press them high up the pitch.
Opta Supercomputer’s Projected Chance of a Top-Five Finish: 15.5%
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Fixture Difficulty
Using Opta’s Power Rankings, which compare the relative quality of 13,000 teams across leagues from around the world, we can objectively rank the difficulty of each team’s remaining fixtures. By taking an average score of the opponents, we can see how difficult each side’s games are. Essentially, the higher the average rating, the more difficult their run-in is.
Newcastle have the toughest task on their hands, facing Chelsea and a resurgent Everton at home either side of a trip to Arsenal. The Gunners don’t have a great deal to play for but they aren’t yet completely certain of a top-five finish and also have a bit of a rivalry with Newcastle that means they will take that game very seriously. Newcastle do at least have the best record in games between teams in the current top seven in all competitions this season, having won eight of their 15 such fixtures (53.3%).
Chelsea’s fixture list is not at all kind, either. They play away against two other sides chasing Champions League qualification in Newcastle and Forest, and will likely need a result in at least one of those games. They have won only one away game in the league since early December – and even then, they required a last-gasp winner at Fulham.
Villa’s fixture list is the next-most difficult, but the power rankings don’t take into account that both Tottenham and Man Utd will both have more than half an eye on the Europa League final, so their games might actually be easier than they appear on paper.
Forest’s form has tailed off of late but they should still fancy their chances of getting three positive results in their remaining games. A high-stakes final game against Chelsea looks like it could be a nervy affair, but with Leicester and West Ham before that, they might have given themselves a bit of a cushion before Enzo Maresca’s men visit Nottingham on the last day of the season.
City have the easiest remaining games, kicking off their run-in with a favourable trip to Southampton, who are bottom of the table, already relegated, without a permanent manager and outside the top 200 teams in the world according to the Opta Power Rankings.
They then host Bournemouth and finish away at Fulham, neither of whom are in scintillating form. Understandably, the Opta supercomputer backs City to finish in the top five…
Who Will Qualify for the Champions League?
It has been a rollercoaster of a season for every one of these Champions League chasers. As the below graph shows, all of them except City have at some stage of the season had less than a 25% chance of qualifying for the Champions League, while also at some other point boasting greater than 50% chance.
City’s chances have remained above 70% all campaign, though, and they head into the final three games qualifying in 97.6% of the supercomputer’s simulations of 2024-25’s remaining weeks.
Newcastle (76.4%) are the next-most likely to finish in the top five, ahead of Chelsea (66.0%). That means Forest (44.5%) and Aston Villa (15.5) are likeliest to miss out according to the supercomputer.
Still, it has been wrong before (shock, horror!) and could well be wrong again. With so many moving parts, don’t take anything for granted in the final few games of the season.
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Five Teams, Three Spots: Reasons to be Cheerful and Fearful For Each Team Chasing Champions League Football Opta Analyst.
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