There is a grim predictability to the unpredictability of Donald Trump. His impulsive, often erratic swings on matters of immense economic consequence — especially tariffs — have become a defining feature of his presidency. The latest chapter in this increasingly farcical saga unfolded on April 22, when Trump, with little fanfare and even less explanation, declared that the "very high" tariffs on Chinese goods would soon be "substantially reduced."
This sudden reversal followed weeks of climbing the tariff escalator, punctuated by a selective retreat in sectors like electronics — a move less about strategic calibration than tactical bargaining. No solemn apology was offered for this breathtaking U-turn. None was expected. Instead, Trump’s rare moment of restraint in tone hinted at a more uncomfortable reality: the administration's bellicose trade strategy has yielded little beyond domestic pain and global confusion.
There is a temptation to view Trump’s tariff gambits as erratic improvisations. In truth, they are symptomatic of a deeper malaise: an administration where the performance of toughness consistently eclipses the pursuit of results. The self-congratulatory tariffs — which at their peak reached an eye-watering 145 percent on some Chinese imports — have neither compelled Beijing into submission nor revived American manufacturing from its slow-motion decline.
Instead, Trump’s so-called strategy has backfired spectacularly. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s muted calls for de-escalation reveal a growing recognition of the unsustainable nature of the current situation. In a recent closed-door investor summit coinciding with Trump’s public pivot, Bessent acknowledged the obvious: the trade war with China was unsustainable. His words, aimed at soothing fraying nerves, could not disguise the fact that the American tariff regime has devolved into a parody of strategic governance.
Perhaps the most telling response has come not from Washington, but from Beijing. Unlike other nations entangled in Trump's tariff dragnet, China has eschewed frantic diplomacy. It has requested no emergency negotiations, sought no desperate exemptions. In its studied silence, Beijing has wagered that Trump’s inconsistency is a greater liability than any import duty.
In response to Trump’s actions, China’s Ministry of Commerce denounced Washington’s weaponization of trade as performative populism — a pointed rebuke of an administration that frequently confuses theatrics with diplomacy. Last month, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs elaborated further: emphasizing that China and the United States, as the world’s two largest economies, share "extensive common interests and broad space for cooperation" — interests threatened by the rise of unilateralism and protectionism in Washington.
These are not mere platitudes. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations 46 years ago, Sino-American trade has exploded more than 270-fold. Over 70,000 American companies operate in China, with exports to the Chinese market supporting nearly a million U.S. jobs.
Despite the political turbulence of 2024, bilateral trade expanded by 3.7 percent year-on-year, reaching a robust $688 billion. The figures speak for themselves. Yet this reality is precisely what the Trump administration, lost in its protectionist delusions, refuses to accept.
Trump’s economic nationalism is being sold to the American public as a panacea for lost jobs and withering industries. In practice, it has achieved the opposite. Manufacturers reliant on global supply chains have faced surging costs. Farmers — once bedrock Trump supporters — have been driven to dependence on government bailouts. Consumers have paid more for everyday goods. What makes the chaos even more galling is its selective nature.
Trump’s decision to exempt electronics — protecting supply chains critical to big companies — reveals a transparently transactional logic: punish sectors that are politically expendable, shield those that align with corporate America’s most powerful lobbies. If the goal were truly economic security, tech would be the last sector carved out. Instead, Trump's exemptions betray the familiar pattern: electoral math over national strategy.
More dangerous than the incoherence, however, is the erosion of America’s global credibility. Trade wars, unlike conventional wars, do not merely inflict damage on adversaries. They poison alliances, destabilize markets, and erode the multilateral norms painstakingly constructed over decades.
Under Trump’s stewardship, American trade diplomacy has ceased to be a tool of engagement and become a weapon of spectacle — and the world has noticed. China, for its part, has adopted an almost statesmanlike strategic restraint. Despite being on the receiving end of unprecedented tariff escalation, it has been consistently emphasizing cooperation over confrontation.
In its recent statements, Beijing pointedly reminded Washington that "unilateralism and protectionism damage the development of bilateral economic and trade relations," destabilize global supply chains and harm both economies’ people.
Contrast this with Washington’s flailing approach: hiking tariffs, slapping duties, initiating new Section 301 investigations, stripping duty-free status for Chinese goods — all measures that hurt American businesses as much as they aim to hurt China.
The bitter irony is that Trump’s tariffs have become a form of economic self-sabotage, doing more harm at home than abroad. It is an enduring lesson of history: protectionism may feel good in the short term, but it inevitably isolates and impoverishes in the long run. One can almost predict Trump’s next move.
Like a magician eager for applause, he may soon claim victory — framing the rollback of tariffs as proof of his negotiating genius. But the world has seen this act before: the manufactured crises, the hasty compromises, the hollow declarations of triumph. The damage, however, is not so easily undone.
If nothing else, this episode should serve as a cautionary tale for future policymakers: power wielded without purpose invites ruin. And the greatest threat to the American economy may not come from Beijing, but from the chaos within.
Imran Khalid is a physician and has a master’s degree in international relations.
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