The system will work against Farage – which is exactly what he wants ...Middle East

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The system will work against Farage – which is exactly what he wants

Nigel Farage is more keenly aware than anyone else of the dangers of winning power but failing to deliver change. When the Conservatives and Labour committed exactly that sin, he capitalised relentlessly on voters’ frustrations – which paved the way for last Thursday’s stunning election results.

A core Reform message is that no matter who you vote for, the Government always gets in (in the words of Neil Innes). Each main party promised to control taxes, borrowing and immigration, only to let down voters repeatedly. In doing so, they made Farage’s case for him.

    If that failure was poison for established parties, it is all the more dangerous if the insurgents who criticise it then do the same. Those who Reform won over on a mix of “vote for change” and “a plague on all their houses” will turn on their new party if it turns out to be the same as the others.

    None of this is news to Farage, who has spent more time and effort on these issues than anyone else in modern Britain.

    Reform’s achievement in the local elections was truly remarkable, winning Durham as easily as in Kent. Had the Government not opted to delay elections in nine other areas across the South East and East Anglia, it would have done well there too.

    Winning control of 10 local authorities, including the new mayoralty in Greater Lincolnshire, opens a new and risky phase of the campaign to win power nationally. People voted for change, and for business as usual to be swept away. They expect it to happen, sharpish.

    We’ve heard rapid announcements about how things will be in Reform-run areas, ranging from firing diversity officers and cutting spending (“a DOGE for Lincolnshire”), to deterring applications to build new solar farms and ensuring council buildings only fly the Union Flag and the flag of St George.

    A party promising a revolution must be seen to deliver it. There are three main obstacles that could stand in Reform’s way.

    The first is the way the culture of local government has developed. Many local authorities are effectively run by council officers, rather than by councillors, the elected representatives of the people.

    As participation in party politics has declined, the complexity of council budgets and operations has grown. In some town halls, part-time councillors simply lack the capacity to wield executive power; in others, there has been outright empire-building by council officers who wield more power and patronage than any transient elected representative can build effectively from outside.

    This is informal power, à la Yes Minister‘s Permanent Secretary Sir Humphrey, so it can easily be over-ridden in theory, but may be hard to curtail in practice. This problem lends weight to Reform’s charge that nothing ever changes – so they will have to overcome it, and fast.

    The second obstacle is the deep centralisation of the British state, even in “local” government. A large share of councils’ responsibilities are mandated from the centre or in statute, and a large proportion of their finances are determined by central government, too.

    It’s absolutely right for voters to expect that their locally elected representatives should decide the priorities and policies of their local authority, according to the concerns and wishes of residents. But the way our system is structured often denies voters and councillors any meaningful choice for radical change.

    Perhaps ironically, much of this centralisation came about under Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s, to stop “loony left” councillors running authorities into the ground. Now the boot is on the other foot, and it’s the insurgent right railing against left-wing dogma emanating from Whitehall.

    Third is the way in which the legal and regulatory system will bind Reform’s hands. Take employment law, for example. It’s legitimate to stand for election on a platform of shutting down all of x activity or firing every officer working on y, but there are regulatory costs – not least redundancy payments.

    Or planning. If a council denies an application for, say, a solar farm that has legal grounds to be approved, then the authority (i.e. taxpayers) have to fund the extensive legal costs of fighting an appeal.

    Reform have evidently studied the way in which lawfare – the tactic of politically-motivated court cases – was used by the left to bog down decisions by the last Conservative government. Dame Andrea Jenkyns, the new Lincolnshire mayor (and a former Tory minister), has already said that Reform councils may take the government to court over Net Zero and immigration. Farage and his allies must be aware that they, too, could face legal action intended to obstruct their policies.

    square MARK WALLACE

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    That’s not to say that Reform councils cannot change things locally. I expect we’ll see some administrations which are determined and able enough to shake things up, and I hope we’ll see council officers accept that they must defer to a democratic mandate.

    However, it is inevitable that before long this election result will give rise to a discussion about the fact that our system is not set up – neither by official preference, devolved formal powers, nor regulatory flexibility – to allow serious, locally-driven change. 

    Expect to hear from Reform councillors, sooner rather than later, about institutional inertia, about obstructive officialdom, and about overmighty Whitehall.

    Much of it will be true, born of real frustrations and highlighting genuine problems. Some of it will be canny, a wisely-deployed explanation of why the promised change hasn’t yet happened.

    And all of it, conveniently, will point to one conclusion: that the best way to change the whole system is to put Farage in Downing Street.

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