We look ahead to Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League semi-final second leg at San Siro between Internazionale and Barcelona with our prediction and preview. Can Inter rely on their strong European home record to withstand Barça’s all-star attack?
Inter vs Barcelona Stats: The Key Insights
Barcelona are deemed by the Opta supercomputer to be favourites to reach the final, with a 56% chance of progression. Inter are looking to reach their third UEFA Champions League final (also 2010 and 2023); it would be Barcelona’s sixth final (1994, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2015). Barça have won just one of their six away Champions League matches against Inter. Overall, they have managed five wins in 24 matches in Italy (21%), their lowest success rate in any foreign country in the competition.If you want to understand just how much Internazionale and Barcelona value the UEFA Champions League, look no further than the players who watched from the benches in their respective domestic matches over the weekend.
Despite both teams being in tense title races in their national leagues, only three of the 22 starters from last week’s first-leg thriller started again at the weekend – Pedri and Gerard Martín for Barcelona, and Yann Bisseck for Inter.
While Inter were able to let their second string see through a 1-0 victory at home to Hellas Verona to stay within three points of leaders Napoli in Serie A, Barcelona were forced to turn to Lamine Yamal, Frenkie de Jong and Raphinha to reverse a first-half deficit away to already-relegated Real Valladolid.
The first leg, which finished 3-3 last Wednesday in Spain, can already be safely regarded as a modern classic. Yamal’s contribution in particular will live long in the memory, and his continued ascension to footballing greatness remains astonishing given he is still two months away from officially reaching adulthood.
Yamal has scored five goals in the Champions League this season, with only three players in the history of the competition scoring more in a single campaign while still a teenager – Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappé and Raúl, all of whom who took up more central positions.
On the other wing is Raphinha, who will likely be at the centre of Ballon d’Or debates even if Barcelona don’t lift the Champions League later this month. The Brazilian is nearing the record for goal involvements in a single Champions League campaign, with his 12 goals and eight assists (20) trailing only Cristiano Ronaldo’s 17 goals and four assists (21) for Real Madrid in 2013-14.
Both Yamal and Raphinha will need to be at the top of their game if they’re to overcome Simone Inzaghi’s Inter, who still remain one of the strongest sides in Europe despite some disappointing results to close out April.
Inter are currently unbeaten in 15 home games in the Champions League, their longest undefeated run on their own turf in Europe since the 1980’s, while they have won nine of their last 11 semi-final matches at San Siro in European competition.
It is looking increasingly likely the reigning champions of Italy will be without their captain and leading scorer Lautaro Martínez for the second leg, however, after he was substituted at half-time with a muscle injury last week.
But Inter did manage to score three goals against Barcelona without a direct contribution from Martínez in the first leg, with Denzel Dumfries scoring twice after Marcus Thuram had given them the lead in the first minute. If either player were to score on Tuesday, they would be the first to score in both legs of a European Cup semi-final for Inter since Giacinto Facchetti in 1966-67.
Barcelona have been without their own leading scorer lately, with Robert Lewandowski missing their last four games with a hamstring injury. The Pole is said to be in contention to return on Tuesday, although his spot in the starting XI isn’t necessarily guaranteed given the form of Ferrán Torres, who made a darting run to get on the end of a Raphinha header when he scored in the first leg.
Torres is in the best form of his Barcelona career and has held the fort admirably in Lewandowski’s absence. The Spaniard has scored 19 goals in all competitions this season despite only starting 17 games, hitting the back of the net every 92 minutes on average.
While Inter have reached the Champions League final as recently as 2023, it is no doubt surprising for readers to be reminded that Barcelona haven’t participated in the showpiece of Europe’s premier competition since 2014-15, when they defeated Juventus.
Barcelona are very much this season’s entertainers, and while their fluidity of play under Hansi Flick can see them fall foul to conceding chances, it has made them a mesmeric attacking force. They have scored 40 goals in the Champions League this season and are now five goals short of the competition record set by themselves in the 1999-2000 campaign.
Inter vs Barcelona Head-to-Head
This will be the 18th major European meeting between Inter Milan and Barcelona, with only Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid (28), Juventus vs Real Madrid (21) and Inter vs Real Madrid (19) played more often. Each of the last two games between the teams have ended 3-3, in the UEFA Champions League in October 2022 and last week’s first leg.
Barcelona have won just one of their six away Champions League matches against Inter, a 2-1 win in December 2019. Overall, Barca have managed just five wins in 24 away games in Italy (21%), their lowest win ratio in any foreign country in the competition.
Inter vs Barcelona Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is indifferent to Inter’s strong home record in Europe, giving Barcelona the greatest chance of a win at San Siro on Tuesday (42.7%). Inter won the game in 33% of simulations, while the likelihood of a draw sits at 24.3%.
Chance of progression to the final by any means sits at 56% for Barcelona and 44% for Inter.
Inter vs Barcelona Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday in Milan, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Inter vs Barcelona Prediction Opta Analyst.
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