As Mark Carney celebrates an unprecedented and historic come-from-behind victory in Canada’s 45th federal election, there seems little doubt that he owes his mandate entirely to Donald Trump, America’s 47th President.
Even as Canadians were casting their ballots on Monday, Trump could not stop himself from sticking his oar into the business of America’s northern neighbour one last time, with a social media posting that effectively consigned Pierre Poilievre’s candidacy to the ash heap of Conservative Party history.
Trump appeared to suggest that Canadians should write his name onto their ballot papers so that he could advance his aim of forcing the country to become America’s 51st state.
“Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World”, urged Trump on his social media account.
“It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!” he insisted, in one final Election Day intervention.
Poilievre reacted with fury, even as millions of Canadians were trekking to the polls. “President Trump, stay out of our election” he said on X in a dramatic election morning message.
“The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box. Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent, and we will NEVER be the 51st state”, he asserted.
Carney’s secret weapon turned out to be Trump himself (Photo: Mandel NGAN / AFP)As the votes were counted, it became clear that Canadians had decided that Carney, who had never held any elective office prior to succeeding former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as Liberal Party leader on 9 March, will now helm the next government.
The turnaround for the Liberals is one for the history books, after they eradicted Poilievre’s 25 per cent lead in the opinion polls on the day Trump was inaugurated, and eked out a victory that at the start of the year seemed impossible.
Carney’s secret weapon turned out to be Trump himself.
The American President’s insistence that Canada must abandon its independence and join the United States was first voiced last during a pre-inauguration meeting with Trudeau at Mar-A-Lago on November 29th.
The Canadians thought it was a joke, with former Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who witnessed the conversation, telling reporters “the President was teasing us. It was, of course, in no way a serious comment”.
By mid-December, Trump was raising the issue publicly, mocking Trudeau on social media as the “Governor of Canada” and insisting “many Canadians want Canada to become the 51st State. They would save massively on taxes and military protection”. The Canadian government began to understand that Trump was not offering his proposal in jest, but Poilievre seemed slow to appreciate that his own election prospects were about to be torpedoed.
On paper, Trump and Poilievre initially seemed like soul mates, with some key figures in the US President’s “Make America Great Again” movement ardent fans of a populist Canadian Conservative they hoped would be come yin to Trump’s yang.
But early endorsements by Elon Musk, podcaster Ben Shapiro and former Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz predated Trump’s trade war on Canada, and his growing determination to annex America’s northern neighbour.
Amid a rising tide of public fury in Canada over Trump’s “51st state” rhetoric and America’s punishing tariffs on steel, aluminium and other Canadian exports on which the US relies, Poilievre distanced himself from Trump.
The move did nothing to halt the slide in his support among Canadian voters, but did earn him US President’s eternal fury.
“The Conservative that’s running is stupidly no friend of mine”, Trump told Fox News on March 25th. “I think it’s easier to deal, actually, with a Liberal”, he said in remarks that stopped just short of endorsing Carney in the election.
Now it will fall to Carney to chart the future of bilateral relations with Trump.
In March, with Carney serving as Canada’s caretaker leader, the two men agreed on the need for comprehensive negotiations about a new economic and security relationship as soon as the election ended.
So decisively have Canadians rejected Trump’s intervention in their affairs, that one election night commentator on CBC TV publicly thanked America’s President for forging national unity even in Quebec, where long-term calls for independence were marginalised during the campaign.
Carney will point to his victory as a clear indication that Canadians have no desire to abandon their democracy, sovereignty and independent leadership role in the world in order to become part of the United States.
But earlier this week, Trump told Time Magazine that he was “really not trolling” Canadians with his 51st state demands.
“Canada is an interesting case” to become part of the USA, he again insisted.
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