Arsenal vs PSG: Six Semi-Final Subplots That Could Decide the Tie ...Middle East

Arsenal have already beaten Paris Saint-Germain this season, but can they get the better of them in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals? We look ahead by identifying some key elements to keep an eye on.

Kicking off the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League semi-finals on Tuesday are Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain, two clubs still yet to ever win the competition.

The two teams converge on the Emirates Stadium for the first leg, before doing it all again at the Parc des Princes next Wednesday.

Ahead of what promises to be an engrossing tie, we identify six facets that could be decisive…

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Saka vs Mendes – Who’ll Have the Edge?

It’s fair to say Bukayo Saka was a notable presence in Arsenal’s last Champions League outing, the 2-1 win over Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabéu that made sure of their progress to the semi-finals.

An early penalty miss might have set the tone for a Madrid comeback after losing 3-0 in the first leg, with Saka’s ‘Panenka’ pushed away by the grateful Thibaut Courtois. But he made amends just past the hour, this time his delicate finish leaving the Belgian with no chance as he raced on to Mikel Merino’s perfectly weighted pass before clipping over the lunging goalkeeper.

The England winger holds such importance for Arsenal because he can be impactful in so many ways, be it from set-pieces, by beating his man, teeing up colleagues or applying finishes himself.

Arsenal’s trust in him is partly highlighted by the fact only four teams in the Champions League this term have had a greater proportion of their touches in the attacking half come down the right flank (40%).

And that was especially evident when these two sides met in October, as – remarkably – Arsenal saw 60.4% of their attacks come from the right-hand side.

Saka was up against Nuno Mendes on that occasion, and their battle was a big feature of the match. But after being beaten by the Arsenal winger in the second minute, the Portuguese full-back acquitted himself pretty well.

He stuck tight to Saka and prevented him from wriggling away from their duels. Mendes pushed up high himself, winning possession back from his rival in the final third on one occasion.

But it’s not just going to be a case of the Arsenal winger attacking and the PSG defender defending; Mendes escaped Saka in the build-up to a shot that struck the post in the first half of that game, which ultimately ended 2-0 to Arsenal.

Furthermore, both of PSG’s full-backs play prominent roles in the build-up. In all competitions this season, Mendes has been involved in 156 open-play passing sequences, excluding instances of him having a shot or creating a chance; only Vitinha (193) and right-back Achraf Hakimi (170) have tallied more among PSG players.  

This is a contest that could have an impact at both ends of the pitch.

Lewis-Skelly vs PSG’s Right-Hand Side 

It was only six months ago – in the aforementioned league-phase fixture between these two – that the teenage Myles Lewis-Skelly was making his Champions League debut, and his rise since has been nothing short of phenomenal. But in this week’s semi-final first leg, he might just face his biggest challenge yet. 

Having kept Rodrygo almost completely silent over two legs against Real Madrid in the previous round, the left-back will now come up against one of the few Champions League teams who are more right-heavy in their attacking than Arsenal. 

PSG have created more chances from their right side (77) than any other team in the Champions League this season, while only three teams – two of whom went out in the league phase and the other (Atlético Madrid) were knocked out in the play-off round – have had a higher proportion of their attacking touches down the right flank than them (40.9%).

Much of PSG’s right-sided thrust comes from the relentless running of captain and right-back Hakimi, who, after his goal against Aston Villa in the previous round, has more goal involvements (two goals, five assists) than any other defender in the Champions League this season. 

PSG’s biggest strength, however, is their attack, where manager Luis Enrique rotates his players on a weekly basis. It’s therefore impossible to know for sure who will be on their right at the Emirates on Tuesday, which makes Lewis-Skelly’s task of preparing for the game even more difficult. Whoever plays, though, he is sure to come up against a dribble merchant. 

In Désiré Doué (3.1), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (2.7), Bradley Barcola (2.6), and Ousmane Dembélé (2.2), PSG are the only team to boast four players who average more than two successful dribbles per 90 in the Champions League this season. Any of them could play on the right against Arsenal, though it is most likely to be Doué or Barcola. 

However, Lewis-Skelly is a superb one-on-one defender, having been dribbled past only once in 1,488 minutes of Champions League and Premier League action. That’s more than 24 hours of football in his debut season, and only once has an opponent beaten him. 

In fact, this is somewhat reflective of Arsenal’s whole team. They are tougher to dribble past than any other team in the Champions League, with their players beaten on average 5.6 times per game this season – fewer than every other team. Meanwhile, PSG rank first for successful dribbles per game (13.6), and their total of 190 is the most by any team in a single edition of the competition since Barcelona in 2014-15 (238), 

Dribblers versus duel monsters: this could be a battle summed up by what happens down PSG’s right flank. 

Partey a Miss Against PSG’s Possession-Dominant Midfield

Luis Enrique has become one of the most renowned coaches in the world for his dedication to possession football, and it’s been on full display in this season’s Champions League.

Only Bayern Munich (65.2%) have averaged a greater share of possession than the Parisians (63.8%), though PSG are top of the rankings on a per-game basis for passes (668.2) and successful passes (598.4). They are also in the top three for final-third passes (199.6), attacking-half passes (379), and touches in the opposition’s box (39.4).

Much of that control comes down to the talents of their central midfielders. Portuguese pair Vitinha and João Neves offer so much on-ball ability; both are agile, graceful ball carriers capable of beating a defender, and they also look after possession well.

Neves has the greater defensive remit and is an effective presence buzzing around the middle, with his 3.5 tackles per 90 minutes in the UCL this term the second most of any player still in the competition (min. 360 minutes played). Similarly, he’s averaged 6.0 recoveries, putting him third among midfielders of clubs who’ve reached the semi-finals.

Vitinha doesn’t shirk that side of the game, but he’s the tempo-setter and bears the brunt of the responsibility with respect to PSG’s control.

Among players to feature for at least 360 minutes in the competition this season, he ranks second for touches per 90 (106.8) and third for passes (92.6) and successful passes (87.8).

But it’s not just about simply keeping the ball. When shooting actions and chance creation are taken out of the equation, only three nominal defensive/central midfielders have averaged more involvements in shot-ending sequences per 90 (4.5) than Vitinha, meaning he’s also frequently conducting attacks that lead to quantifiable threat.

As for totals, no PSG player has been involved in the build-up to a shot (excluding shot-taking actions and chance creation) more often than Vitinha this term (193), which the graphic below highlights.

Arsenal, however, aren’t worried about having the ball. In fact, they only had 35.1% of it when they beat PSG in October. The issue this time is they’ll be without the suspended Thomas Partey.

The Ghana international is such an effective reader of the game, and while Arsenal do have decent options to replace him, Merino – who might be required further forward anyway – does not offer quite the same all-round quality, and moving Declan Rice deeper would potentially impact what he provides going forward.

The Goalkeepers 

Hidden behind all the attacking talent in this tie are two brilliant goalkeepers in David Raya and Gianluigi Donnarumma. 

Since moving to Arsenal, Raya has developed into one of the most formidable all-round goalkeepers in Europe, while opposite number Donnarumma has been a consistent performer at the top level for years now. 

The Italian has been the hero for PSG in both of their Champions League knockout ties so far this season. He saved two of the three penalties he faced in the shootout triumph at Anfield in the round of 16, before producing three top-quality, crucial saves from Marcus Rashford, Youri Tielemans and Marco Asensio late on in the quarter-final second leg against Aston Villa when PSG’s aggregate lead down had been cut down to a single goal. Three times, he stopped the game going to extra-time. 

Raya’s heroics have been less dramatic but far more consistent over the season. He has conceded just six goals in 11 Champions League games this season, despite facing shots worth 10.4 expected goals on target (xGOT), meaning he has conceded 4.4 goals fewer than the average goalkeeper would have when tested with those shots. Only Girona’s Paulo Gazzaniga (5.1) has prevented more goals in the competition this season than the Arsenal stopper. 

Their roles won’t be limited to keeping the ball out of the net, though. Their distribution will also come under the microscope.  

Both are happy to go long when needed, with each team playing more than 50% of their goal-kicks out of their own penalty area.  

Raya is encouraged to go long by Mikel Arteta, who wants his goalkeeper to try and turn defence into attack quickly when the opportunity arises. Only two goalkeepers (min. 300 passes attempted) have played a higher proportion of their passes long in the Champions League this season than him (43.4%). 

Donnarumma is arguably at his weakest when he has the ball at his feet. He rarely tries difficult passes and, under pressure, is forced long probably more than Luis Enrique would like. He might be wise to expect an intense Arsenal press whenever they have the chance. 

PSG’s Main Weakness: Set-Pieces?

We know what you’re thinking. “Oh, another piece highlighting Arsenal’s set-piece prowess, how original…” That would be totally understandable.

However, there’s a slightly different angle to this one: not only do Arsenal have real prowess at set-pieces, such situations appear to be one of few weaknesses in this PSG side.

In Ligue 1 this season, only four teams (all on 11) have conceded more set-piece goals (excluding own goals) than PSG (10). That equates to 32.3% of their overall goals against, which is comfortably the greatest proportion in France’s top flight.

While their 6.2 expected goals against from set-pieces is actually the fourth lowest in Ligue 1, that also accounts for 21% of their overall xG against. Only Nice (22.4%) have seen a greater proportion of their xGA come via set-pieces.

Nice were the latest to score a set-piece goal against PSG, doing so in Friday’s shock 3-1 at the Parc des Princes, with Marquinhos acknowledging afterwards that this was an area they’d have to improve against Arsenal. “We know they are very strong in this respect,” he told DAZN.

Six of PSG’s set-piece goal concessions have come at corners, and four of those have come after their opponents either got a near-post flick-on or directed the ball back into the danger zone from the far post, raising doubts about the Parisians’ effectiveness in duels at the first contact.

They don’t concede many chances from corners, with their opponents having 30 shots from 98 of corners, but they do concede goals too often. They have let in a goal from 6.1% of their opponents’ corners, easily the poorest record in Ligue 1 this term.

And don’t forget, Saka’s goal against Luis Enrique’s men in October came directly from a free-kick out wide that the defence failed to deal with.

Arsenal might not be quite the same threat without Gabriel Magalhães, but PSG’s record hints at a genuine weakness there to be exploited.

Momentum 

PSG are no strangers to this stage of the Champions League, having reached the knockout stage in each of the last 13 seasons and at least the semi-finals in four of the last six. 

However, despite regularly appearing contenders to win the competition, they have consistently struggled to perform in the latter stages. They have still never won Europe’s biggest prize. 

Though it can’t be proved as true, it has often been suggested that winning their domestic title early – as they regularly do and have done again this season – means they are not able to keep up their intensity into the final rounds of the Champions League. Whether they admit it or not, there are times it has certainly looked as though they have been hurt by not having competitive league fixtures in between European games. 

This season, they won the Ligue 1 title at the start of the April with six games to spare, and since then, have won just two of five matches. On Friday night, they followed up a 1-1 draw at Nantes with their first league defeat of the season as they went 3-1 down to a Nice side who came into the game with just one win in their previous six. PSG’s recent results could well give Arsenal hope. 

However, Arteta’s side have stuttered of late, too. They were sensational in winning home and away against Real Madrid in the last round, but their domestic campaign has been over for weeks, and with so many injuries, particularly in attack, they have lacked intensity in their Premier League games. They have drawn three of their last four – against Everton, Brentford and Crystal Palace – with their only win coming at 19th-placed, 10-man Ipswich. 

They have clearly been saving themselves for the Champions League, not least in the rotation of key players, but there have also been signs of vulnerability in the last few weeks that PSG may well focus on. 

Arteta said Arsenal had “momentum” on their side after knocking Madrid out, but one could argue that a record of six wins in 13 in all competitions represents stuttering form. 

Neither side has been consistently at their best of late. 

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Arsenal vs PSG: Six Semi-Final Subplots That Could Decide the Tie Opta Analyst.

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