NHL Playoff Predictions: What Teams Are Best Positioned to Raise the Stanley Cup? ...Middle East

With the arrival of the Stanley Cup playoffs, we’re using our TRACR model and championship win probabilities for NHL playoff predictions, as we rank the teams’ chances from 1 to 16.

Drop the puck – the electricity is in the air.

The NHL Stanley Cup playoffs begin on Saturday, all with the promise of heart-stopping drama and unforgettable moments. 

With the playoff pairings finalized Thursday night, our projection model gives us data-backed predictions for which playoff teams will have success over the two-month postseason. The model is based on each team’s TRACR, win-loss record, strength of schedule, and more.

TRACR normalizes performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate numbers. It uses advanced metrics and other factors on both offense and defense to calculate how many goals a team is expected to score and allow each game. It then compares these values to the league-average club (lower is better for defense).

It all gets started with the first-round matchups:

Stanley Cup Playoffs

Key: A-Atlantic Division; M-Metropolitan Division; C-Central Division; P-Pacific Division; WC-Wild Card

Eastern Conference

Western Conference

We’re combining our NHL power rankings and championship probabilities to rank the 16 teams heading into the Stanley Cup playoffs.

NHL Playoff Predictions

1. Tampa Bay Lightning (TRACR: 1.08)

The back-to-back champions in 2020 and 2021, while third in the Eastern Conference points, are our favorites to reclaim the Stanley Cup this June. Propelled once again by superstar Nikita Kucherov, the Lightning have the depth and league-leading offense (3.56 goals per game) to win the title: Brandon Hagel, Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel join Kucherov (league-high 121 points) with 80 or more points. The experience and physicality of defensemen Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh in front of star goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy makes this Lightning squad a team nobody wants to face in the postseason. 

2. Los Angeles Kings (TRACR: 0.94)

The Kings have been one of the best defensive teams in hockey all season behind goaltender Darcy Kuemper, who allows just 2.02 goals per game (the NHL’s second-best average). Young defensemen Brandt Clarke and Mikey Anderson are key contributors already, capable of being leaned on in big games. The Kings may be vulnerable on the offensive end, as their 3.04 goals per game rank just 14th in the league, they have a 27th-ranked power play conversion percentage (17.9%), and are without a player with at least 75 points this season.

3. Winnipeg Jets (TRACR: 0.88)

Fresh off winning the President’s Trophy as the league’s best regular-season team (116 points in the Western Conference), the Winnipeg Jets seem poised to make a deep run in the Stanley Cup playoffs. They’re led by dominant goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, who allows the league’s fewest goals per game (2.00) and has the second-highest save percentage (.925) and most wins (47) of all netminders in the league. Forwards Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele provide the goal-scoring spark up front while Josh Morrissey has been one of the league’s best defensemen this season, making the Jets a complete team heading into this postseason. 

4. Vegas Golden Knights (TRACR: 0.67)

As they frequently have been since their first NHL season in 2017-18, the Vegas Golden Knights are once again contenders this postseason. Center Jack Eichel leads this squad, ranking sixth in the league in assists (66) and eighth in points (94). Defensemen Noah Hanifin, Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore have led a defensive group in front of goaltender Adin Hill that has allowed the third-fewest goals per game in the league (2.61). If the Golden Knights can get significant offensive contributions from players other than Eichel, expect them to make a run this postseason. 

5. Washington Capitals (TRACR: 0.28)

While many of the headlines surrounding the Capitals this season have rightfully come from Alex Ovechkin passing Wayne Gretzky for the most goals in NHL history, this team is far more than just Ovechkin’s goal-scoring ability. The Caps are one of three teams with at least five players who had 60 or more points in the regular season, leading to an average of 3.49 goals scored per game (second overall). The team with the best record in the Eastern Conference also ranks in the top 10 in fewest goals allowed per game (2.79), so we expect the Capitals to continue to find success in the postseason.

6. Toronto Maple Leafs (TRACR: 0.44)

With forwards Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares, the Leafs have some of the most star power of any team in the league. The experience of veteran defensemen Morgan Rielly and Oliver Ekman-Larsson also will be crucial for the Leafs. Goaltender Anthony Stolarz has been stellar this season, allowing just 2.14 goals per game to rank third in the league, and rounds out a complete Leafs’ roster as one of the league’s more dangerous teams on paper. However, as Leafs fans know all too well, a dominant roster on paper does not always translate to playoff success.

7. Dallas Stars (TRACR: 0.51)

With their acquisition of Mikko Rantanen in a blockbuster trade on March 7, the Stars assembled one of the best groups of forwards in the league. Matt Duchene and Jason Robertson have been dominant this season, while the anticipated return of Tyler Seguin seems to be approaching at the perfect time. Goaltender Jake Oettinger has valuable experience in the postseason, and he allowed just 2.59 goals allowed per game in the regular season despite giving up 14 across his final three outings. A potential vulnerability for Dallas could come from a lack of physicality that could allow other teams to impose their will on a series as the Stars rank second to last in hits per game (15.18). 

8. Carolina Hurricanes (TRACR: 0.35)

After six consecutive seasons with a playoff series victory yet zero Stanley Cup Finals appearances, the Hurricanes will hope to ride Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns to a deeper run this postseason. Propelled by Slavin and Burns, as well as other dominant defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere and Dmitry Orlov, the Hurricanes’ 83.6% penalty kill percentage is the best in the league and could prove to be crucial against the offensive firepower of some other Eastern Conference contenders. 

9. Colorado Avalanche (TRACR: 0.47)

Like Toronto, the Avs have the star power to make a surprise run this postseason. Nathan MacKinnon has arguably been the best player in the world this season, tied for the league high in assists (84) despite having a revolving door of teammates due to all the moves Colorado has made this season. Cale Makar remains a premier defenseman, capable of taking over games with his playmaking ability. However, as it has for the past couple seasons, a lack of depth and unreliable goaltending put a significant damper on the Avs’ chances to return to glory the way they did in 2022.

10. Florida Panthers (TRACR: 0.28)

The reigning Stanley Cup champs will hope to ride their depth and physicality to another title in 2025. The Panthers have utilized the same recipe for success coach Paul Maurice deployed last season: physicality in the offensive crease, punishing defense against the boards, and a physical forecheck. The Panthers led the regular season in hits per game with 29.83, or 2.84 more on average than the No. 2 Canucks (26.99). Their five 50-point scoring forwards Sam Reinhart (team-high 81 points), Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett will benefit from the addition of Brad Marchand at the trade deadline and the playoff experience he’s brought from Boston to South Florida.

11. Ottawa Senators (TRACR: 0.11)

The Senators are a defense-first team whose offense could limit their ability to get deep in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Defensemen Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot have had productive seasons playing a physical brand of hockey under coach Travis Green, leading the Sens to rank fourth in the league in hits per game (25.68). Goaltender Linus Ullmark also has been a big boost in Ottawa this season, ranking 11th in save percentage (.909). While the Sens have good depth, they lack the star power among their forwards to score a big goal in key moments, which could prove to be their downfall.

12. Edmonton Oilers (TRACR: 0.12)

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. If last year’s Stanley Cup runners-up are going to get over the hump this season, their elite goalscoring duo will have to dominate once again. Experienced forwards Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Corey Perry should provide a valuable boost offensively, but the Oilers will likely need more this postseason than the 0.53 points per game this trio has averaged during the regular season. Evan Bouchard and the rest of the defense will play a crucial role, especially with Mattias Ekholm expected to miss the first round due to injury, in front of inconsistent goaltender Stuart Skinner, whose 2.81 goals allowed per game ranks 31st among goaltenders with at least 25 games played.

13. New Jersey Devils (TRACR: 0.09)

The Devils are dominant on defense, ranking fifth in goals allowed per game (2.68) behind netminders Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen. Star defensemen Dougie Hamilton and Luke Hughes also deserve a lot of credit for the Devils’ stellar defensive record. The challenge for their team will be generating enough offense to compete with the league’s best. Their 2.93 goals per game tied for just 20th in the regular season, so the Devils will surely need more goals this postseason. 

14. St. Louis Blues (TRACR: 0.20)

A 12-game win streak from mid-March to early April must have Blues fans feeling like the sky is the limit for this year’s squad. Center Robert Thomas has been instrumental in St. Louis’ success as his 60 assists are tied for ninth in the league despite his 12 missed games this season. The playoff experience of Colton Parayko, Brayden Schenn and Oskar Sundqvist will be valuable, but we don’t see the Blues getting deep into the Western Conference playoffs with what looks to be a brutal postseason path.

15. Montreal Canadiens (TRACR: -0.23)

Nick Suzuki and Lane Hutson have emerged as stars this season, with Suzuki’s 89 points tied for 13th league-wide. The problem for the Canadiens is a lack of depth as they were one of five teams in the regular season to have only four players with 40+ points (the Minnesota Wild are the only other playoff team with this distinction). While the Canadiens’ future appears to be bright, they don’t appear ready for a deep playoff run in 2025. 

16. Minnesota Wild (TRACR: -0.29)

The play of young stars Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi, Kiril Kaprizov and Brock Faber combined with the final playoff run for 40-year-old Marc-Andre Fleury, the NHL’s No. 2 all-time wins leader (with 575 behind Martin Brodeur’s 691), should make the Wild a fun team to watch this postseason. However, with only four players with at least 40 points, there are some serious questions about their lack of depth. Goaltender Filip Gustavsson has been fantastic this season and ranks sixth in the league in save percentage (.914), so the Wild will have a chance if he stands on his head this postseason.

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NHL Playoff Predictions: What Teams Are Best Positioned to Raise the Stanley Cup? Opta Analyst.

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