Can Tottenham reach just the fourth European semi-final in their history? We look ahead to Thursday’s UEFA Europa League quarter-final second leg at Deutsche Bank Park with our Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham prediction and preview.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham Stats: The Key Insights
Eintracht Frankfurt have the edge according to the Opta supercomputer, which gives them a 40.6% chance of victory. Tottenham have lost six of their previous seven away games in knockout ties against German opposition. Spurs have only kept one clean sheet in their previous 19 matches on the road in the UEFA Europa League.It’s safe to say Eintracht Frankfurt and Tottenham Hotspur had contrasting domestic matches after they drew 1-1 in London last week.
The German side enjoyed a 3-0 home win over Heidenheim, which kept them third in the Bundesliga table. Whereas Spurs delivered an error-strewn performance at Molineux on Sunday, losing 4-2 to a Wolves side who remain one of just five clubs below them in the Premier League.
Tottenham will need to be much better to win this tie. History is very much against them, though, and in more ways than one.
Spurs have lost six of their last seven knockout stage games away to German opponents in Europe (winning the other), failing to score in four of the last five. The most recent instance saw them suffer a 3-0 loss to RB Leipzig as part of a 4-0 aggregate defeat in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League in 2019-20.
Tottenham have also only kept one clean sheet in their 19 most recent away matches in the UEFA Europa League. That came in a 1-0 win over Qarabag in November 2015. Ange Postecoglou can at least point to a result that suggests these nuggets may not matter, as his men won 3-2 at Hoffenheim in the league phase of this competition in January.
But Hoffenheim haven’t been at anything like the standard of Eintracht Frankfurt this season. Tottenham’s opponents this time around have a much stronger attack, which will likely maintain Spurs’ issues with recording clean sheets in the Europa League.
Eintracht have averaged over two goals per home match in this competition over the years, scoring 55 times in 27 matches. Their key man at Deutsche Bank Park in Europe this term has been Hugo Ekitiké, who leads their standings for Europa League goals and assists at home with three and two respectively.
The 22-year-old Frenchman scored and set up a goal at the weekend after opening the scoring in the 1-1 draw at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last Thursday. Only two strikers have been involved in more goals in a Europa League campaign for the club, so Ekitiké is unquestionably the man for Tottenham to be most worried about.
Their own talisman might set a club record here, though. If Son Heung-Min appears in this game he will overtake Harry Kane to become Tottenham’s all-time leading appearance maker in major European competition, with 68 games played.
Son is only averaging a goal every 217 minutes in the UEFA Europa League this term, however, which is his worst ratio in an edition where he’s made more than two appearances.
It’s also not guaranteed he will start this match, as he missed the defeat at Wolves as a precautionary measure following a minor foot injury. Son aside, Kevin Danso may be able to return here, with Radu Dragusin remaining Postecoglou’s only long-term absentee at present.
Frankfurt potentially have a few more injury problems than their visitors here. Aurèle Amenda will miss the game, while Junior Dina Ebimbe and Ansgar Knauff look to be touch and go in terms of their potential involvement. Some good news for manager Dino Toppmöller is that Kevin Trapp looks set to return in goal.
With the tie level and home advantage on their side, Eintracht Frankfurt will feel positive about their chances of reaching a third Europa League semi-final, having previously done so in 2018-19 and 2021-22, ultimately lifting the trophy in the latter campaign. The only team to have qualified for more than three semi-finals in the competition ahead of this season are Sevilla, who have done so five times.
Tottenham have progressed from just one of their previous 10 knockout ties in European competition after failing to win the first leg at home. In fairness, it was one of the most famous nights in the history of the club, as they progressed past Ajax to reach the Champions League final in 2018-19.
It may take a performance of similarly heroic proportions for Spurs to reach their first European semi-final since then, just the fourth in their history.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham Head-to-Head
The last meeting of these teams in Germany ended all square. However, that 0-0 draw occurred in the group stage of the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League, so it was not as important as this knockout clash.
Eintracht’s only prior victory over Tottenham occurred in the preceding instance of them playing in Germany. As it was way back in 1982, it’s only of use as an omen for the Bundesliga club rather than being relevant to the present-day sides.
With Spurs having two wins and a draw from their three meetings in the last three seasons, the balance of power in the recent head-to-head lies with them.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is siding with Eintracht Frankfurt. A home win was the outcome from 40.6% of its 10,000 simulations of the match.
As you would guess from that percentage, the margin is not huge though. Tottenham’s hopes of a win in 90 minutes are rated as a 32.8% possibility.
Should the 26.6% likelihood of a draw come to pass, we will be heading to extra-time and possibly penalties.
Taking all eventualities into consideration, the supercomputer gives Eintracht a 53.9% likelihood of reaching the semi-finals, therefore putting Spurs’ chances at 46.1%.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham Prediction Opta Analyst.
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