March Madness: Best Bets for the Florida-Houston national title game ...0

Florida will face Houston on Monday night (8:50 p.m. ET, CBS) for the 2025 national championship.

The Gators (35-4) won the SEC Tournament, knocked the 2-time defending champs out of the NCAA Tournament in the second round, survived Texas Tech, stromed back to stun Auburn, and now sit 1 victory away from their third national title in Florida basketball history.

The Cougars (35-4) haven’t lost a basketball game since Feb. 1. Owning the nation’s longest winning streak at 18, Houston ripped through the Big 12 Tournament, knocked off Gonzaga, manhandled Tennessee, and pulled off one of the most improbable Final Four comebacks we’ve seen agaisnt Duke.

The stage is set. Here’s how to bet on the action.

2024-25 record: 25-25

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Florida-Houston national championship odds

Spread: Florida -1.5

Total: 141.5

Money line: Florida -115, Houston -105

Odds via BetMGM

Bet Florida -1 (-108 via DraftKings)

According to OptaSTATS, there had been 335 NCAA Tournament games before Saturday night where 1 team finished with a higher shooting percentage, more free throw attempts, more assists, more steals, and fewer turnovers than their opponent. Those teams were 335-0. Duke became the first team to lose a game with those specific advantages. Esoteric? Sure, but it reinforces something we saw with our own eyes. Duke blew it. The Blue Devils had a 9-point lead with 3:03 to play and got outscored 15-3 from there on out. They gave up a 9-0 run in the final 33 seconds of the game to lose by 3. To a certain extent, Houston shouldn’t be in the title game.

The Cougars are, of course, and their culture deserves some praise for that. But Houston’s grueling practices didn’t cause Tyrese Proctor to dribble off his knee, or Sion James to throw the ball away, or Proctor to miss a free throw, or Cooper Flagg to foul on a rebound attempt. Change just 1 of the litany of Duke mistakes over the final 5 minutes and the result changes. I’m fading Houston in this spot and backing the Gators.

Florida feels undeniable at this point. The Gators got 34 points from Walter Clayton Jr., who now has 123 points in 5 March Madness games. He’s the best player in the country right now, and there isn’t a shot he can’t make. Clayton has had some ridiculous buckets in the tourney — pull-ups over outstretched arms that shouldn’t have gone through but did.

Houston is going to attack in a different kind of way. The Cougars blitz ball screens and will force Florida’s guards to make plays for teammates. I trust Clayton to do that, and Florida has plenty of options — Thomas Haugh, Will Richard, and Alijah Martin — who can knock down catch-and-shoot shots.

The defense against Auburn was outstanding, forcing Johni Broome out to the perimeter in order to get touches and neutralizing Tahaad Pettiford. The Gators are comfortable playing a ton of different ways, have several players who can beat a defense, and will have the best player on the floor when Clayton’s out there.

It also bodes well to be the favorite in this spot. Since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985, favorites in the national title game are 26-12 straight up and 20-18 against the spread. Favorites have won 6 of the last 7 national titles. And this year’s tourney has been nothing if not chalky.

First-half point total over 66.5 (-105 via bet365)

During the Gators’ current 11-game winning streak, first halves have averaged 78.5 points. Ten of those 11 games have featured first halves with more than 66.5 points.

That includes a game against Tennessee, which plays a similar “take the air out of the ball” style to Houston. Now, Houston’s last 11 games have featured an average of just 61.5 first-half points, but Houston has a couple of spots where it can press Gator weaknesses. The Cougs have enough frontcourt depth to hang with Florida’s size. And the Gators can get beat up a bit inside by teams that pound it down low to their bigs.

There are several avenues here. If Houston establishes itself inside and opens space for shooters like LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp, the Cougs will have plenty of decent looks. We can also get there if Florida hits one of runs we’ve grown accustomed to seeing this season.

March Madness: Best Bets for the Florida-Houston national title game Saturday Down South.

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