Donald Trump is set to unveil a new wave of tariffs in an announcement from the White House on Wednesday, marking so-called "Liberation Day" and raising fears of a global trade war.
Trump plans to announce a series of "reciprocal" tariffs, which are intended to match the duties that other countries impose on US products.
The proposed measures include a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, steel, aluminium, and various other goods.
While the administration asserts that these tariffs will bolster US manufacturing and generate significant revenue, critics express concerns that such actions will disrupt global supply chains, increase consumer prices, and provoke retaliatory measures from affected countries, potentially escalating into a full-scale trade war.
Though primarily aimed at economic rivals such as China and the European Union, the effects of this trade war are indirectly influencing the economic stability, trade balances, and geopolitical relationships of numerous MENA nations.
The New Arab looks into how Trump's tariff 'trade war' could potentially impact MENA countries.
Which countries could be directly hit by Trump's tariffs?
Several MENA countries stand to be directly affected by Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs, particularly those with preferential access to the US market and uneven tariff relationships.
Egypt is among the most exposed, with over $1.1 billion in apparel exports to the United States in 2023—largely through the Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZ) framework, which grants duty-free access under certain conditions (including the involvement of Israel).
At the same time, Egypt maintains higher tariffs on a range of US goods, making it a likely target if the principle of reciprocity is strictly applied by the Trump administration.
Jordan, whose exports to the US reached nearly $2.9 billion in 2024—about $1.7 billion of that in garments—could also be vulnerable despite its 2001 Free Trade Agreement, especially if its tariffs on American products are deemed disproportionate.
Morocco, which exported around $969 million in apparel to the US in 2023 under its own FTA, may face similar pressure. Countries like Algeria and Tunisia, which lack trade agreements and maintain average tariff rates of around 18–19%, could be caught in wider retaliatory measures.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, while it does impose tariffs on US imports—around 5%, and up to 25% on some goods—is unlikely to be directly hit, largely due to its strategic relationship with Washington, deep energy ties, and extensive defence contracts.
The UAE and Qatar are similarly shielded, with strong military and investment links and minimal trade friction in sectors identified by the Trump administration as being vulnerable.
Israel, on the other hand, has taken the precaution of eliminating tariffs on US goods, ensuring it won't get hit by whatever Trump unveils on Wednesday.
However, given the volatility and unpredictability of Trump, if he feels any tariff imposed by any MENA country is unfair, he could take measures to raise tariffs on its exports to the US.
What will the affects be on countries directly affected?
The most damaging consequence will be a potentially devastating loss in jobs.
For Egypt, which depends on the US as a primary market for its garment and textiles industry, new tariffs could erode the competitiveness of its exports, leading to decreased orders, which therefore lead to job losses in a sector that employs hundreds of thousands.
Jordan would face similar risks—its textile sector, a major employer, could be hit by shrinking demand if US buyers shift to cheaper or untaxed alternatives.
For Tunisia and Algeria, which have less diversified economies and relatively high tariffs on imports, the imposition of raised US duties could complicate efforts to expand industrial exports, particularly in sectors like agriculture and manufacturing.
Both countries are already contending with high unemployment and sluggish growth, and a hit to trade would only deepen fiscal and social pressures.
Oil threat
One of the most notable indirect consequences of Trump's potential wave of new tariffs could be a fall in demand for MENA oil.
As Trump's tariffs create uncertainty and potential slowdowns in global economic activity, the demand for energy resources like oil and natural gas could decline. Reduced industrial output, particularly in China—the largest oil importer—and Europe, could drive global oil prices downward.
Countries heavily reliant on oil exports, such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Algeria, and Kuwait, could face budget deficits, forcing governments to scale back public spending, delay infrastructure projects, or borrow more heavily to cover shortfalls.
Inflation danger
In North Africa, countries like Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco, which heavily rely on imports of grain, fuel, and consumer goods, could experience heightened inflationary pressures due to disrupted global supply chains and rising import costs stemming from tariffs.
Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, may encounter increased costs for essential commodities like bread, posing risks of economic instability or social unrest reminiscent of past events triggered by price spikes.
Currency volatility is another consequence facing several MENA nations. Countries with less robust currencies, such as Egypt, Lebanon, Tunisia, and Algeria, are particularly vulnerable to fluctuations arising from global economic tensions.
All of these countries may experience currency depreciation, making imported goods more expensive, which, in turn, exacerbates inflation, and places additional burdens on consumers. Lebanon, already grappling with profound economic crises, could find its recovery efforts further complicated by these global economic disruptions.
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