Liverpool vs Everton Prediction ...0

We look ahead to Wednesday’s Premier League game at Anfield with our Liverpool vs Everton prediction and preview. Will Arne Slot get his first Merseyside derby win?

Liverpool vs Everton Stats: The Key Insights

James Tarkowski’s last-gasp volley brought a dramatic conclusion to the final Merseyside derby at Goodison Park back in February.

Everton earned a late 2-2 draw to take two points from title-chasing rivals Liverpool, and were arguably the better team for much of that encounter, having more shots (10-6) and limiting the visitors to just 0.62 expected goals – the lowest xG total the Reds have had in any league match this season.

The Toffees, though, looked to have been undone by a moment of magic from Mohamed Salah, before Tarkowski lashed home in the 98th minute. Timed at 97:07, it was the second-latest goal Liverpool have conceded in the Premier League, since Opta began recording such data in 2006-07, after a Robin van Persie strike for Arsenal in April 2011 (97:10).

A lengthy VAR check did not cool the temperature at Goodison Park, where matters boiled over at full-time. Curtis Jones and Abdoulaye Doucouré saw red after a coming together when the former took exception to the latter goading Liverpool fans, while Reds boss Arne Slot and assistant Sipke Hulshoff were also sent off after confronting referee Michael Oliver.

When counting players only, the Merseyside derby has produced more red cards than any other fixture in Premier League history (25), with the Toffees’ 17 dismissals against the Reds also the most one team has against another in the competition.

Slot conceded that he should not have lost his cool at Goodison despite feeling decisions had largely gone against his team, and the Dutchman will be hoping to get revenge on the pitch as Liverpool welcome their neighbours to Anfield, where they have only lost once to Everton in the 21st century.

It will be easier said than done, though, as David Moyes’ side are unbeaten in nine league games, which is Everton’s longest such run since the 2016-17 season under Ronald Koeman.

Everton last went longer without defeat in December 2013 (10). Indeed, it is their longest unbeaten run going into a league meeting with Liverpool since February 2010 (also nine), when they lost 1-0 at Anfield, with Moyes at the helm on that occasion, too.

Liverpool will be looking to get back to winning ways after being eliminated from the UEFA Champions League by Paris Saint-Germain on penalties and losing meekly to Newcastle United in the EFL Cup final before the international break.

However, the Reds are runaway leaders in the top flight with a 12-point cushion over Arsenal heading into Matchday 30, and having played just one Premier League game since the end of February, will be ready and raring to go with the Anfield crowd behind them.

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Moyes has won none of his 19 Premier League away games against Liverpool, the joint-most any manager has faced an opponent on the road without a single victory in the competition (Moyes also 19 vs Chelsea). In his first spell at Everton, he drew six of his 11 league visits to Anfield (L5), including his last one in May 2013 (0-0).

Everton have been able to welcome some players back from injury in recent weeks, though it remains to be seen whether this game will come too soon for Iliman Ndiaye, who was injured in the reverse fixture, and Dwight McNeil, while Dominic Calvert-Lewin remains out of action.

They have shown plenty of resilience in this recent run of form, with Jake O’Brien popping up with late equalisers against both Brentford and West Ham, although Everton have won just one of their last six outings (D5).

Everton have scored 41% of their Premier League goals this season from non-penalty set-pieces (13/32), a league-high ratio. Indeed, Beto’s opener in the reverse fixture at Goodison Park came from a quickly taken free-kick.

By contrast, Liverpool have scored the lowest share of their goals in the competition this season from non-penalty set plays at just 6% (4/69).

However, Liverpool do not need to rely on set-pieces with the attacking talent at their disposal.

Chief among their threats is, of course, Salah. He has been directly involved in eight goals in his last seven Premier League Merseyside derbies (six goals, two assists), both scoring and assisting at Goodison Park. The only players to score and assist in both of their Premier League matches against Everton in a single season are Chris Sutton in 1993-94 and Alan Shearer in 1994-95.

Only Steven Gerrard (nine) has scored more Premier League goals in Merseyside derbies than Salah (eight). With uncertainty over a new contract at Anfield, this could be the Egyptian’s last appearance in this famous fixture, so he will be out to surpass Gerrard’s record.

The hosts saw Alisson and Ryan Gravenberch return to the club early from the international break with injuries, though both are expected to be available for this one. Conor Bradley is back in training but the game will likely come too soon for him, so Jarell Quansah could continue at right-back in the absence of the injured Trent Alexander-Arnold.

Liverpool vs Everton Head-to-Head

From 120 derbies at Goodison Park, the 2-2 draw in February meant the honours finished even before the old stadium closes its doors in May: both sides won 41 each of those fixtures (D38).

Yet at Anfield, the record is wholly more one-sided, especially in the modern era.

Liverpool have won their last three Premier League home games against Everton, each by a 2-0 scoreline. They last won more consecutive home league Merseyside derbies between 1990 and 1994 (five), while they have never done so without conceding.

Indeed, Liverpool have lost just one of their last 24 Premier League home games against Everton (W14 D9), winning five of the last six at Anfield.

Liverpool are on 99 wins in this fixture. If they win this match, it will be the fifth time an English league side has beaten another 100 times since the formation of the Football League in 1888 (Arsenal 111 vs Everton, Manchester United 106 vs Aston Villa, Liverpool 103 vs Aston Villa, Arsenal 100 vs Manchester City).

Moyes, meanwhile, has won just four of his 38 Premier League games against Liverpool (D10 L24), a win rate of just 10.5% – his lowest against any opponent in the competition.

Liverpool vs Everton Prediction

Twenty-six of the 65 Premier League meetings between Everton and Liverpool have been drawn, with only Chelsea vs Man Utd finishing level more often in the competition (27). Indeed, Everton have also drawn more Premier League matches than any other side this season (13), including each of their last four in a row.

But our model is not forecasting a draw as a likely outcome, with the match finishing level in just 18.8% of the data-led sims.

Liverpool’s win probability comes in at a healthy 66.3%, while Everton are given just a 14.9% chance of taking the three points.

Liverpool vs Everton Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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Liverpool vs Everton Prediction Opta Analyst.

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