Who will win promotion to the Premier League? Who will make the play-offs? Who will suffer relegation to League One? With only eight matchdays to go in 2024-25, we look at all the key Championship predictions ahead of the final stretch of the season.
There are only eight games remaining in the 2024-25 Championship season, so there’s no better time to check on the Opta supercomputer projections looking at how the final standings may shape up.
Can Leeds United win promotion after heartache last season, or will Sheffield United and Burnley bounce straight back to the Premier League at the first attempt? Will Frank Lampard lead Coventry City to play-off success? Are Luton Town set to suffer successive relegations and fall to League One?
There are many questions yet to be answered, but can the supercomputer help? We analyse the findings from the latest 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the Championship campaign.
Who Will Win Automatic Promotion to the Premier League?
It looks set to be a battle between just three teams for the two automatic promotion spots in the Championship, with Sunderland now nine points behind third-placed Burnley with eight games remaining.
Leeds and Sheffield United find themselves in the automatic promotion places with 80 points apiece, while Burnley trail them by two (78).
This is only the second time in 122 seasons of second-tier history that as many as three different teams have won at least 78 points from 38 games (based on three points for a win). Exceptionally, the only other time was last season (Leicester: 82, Leeds: 82, Ipswich: 81).
Back then it was Daniel Farke’s Leeds who eventually missed out on a top-two finish, and later lost in the play-offs to Southampton at Wembley. Now, after a month that’s seen them win just four points from four Championship games, supporters will be nervous of history repeating itself.
Leeds currently hold the top spot, but for how long? This season has seen the team at the top of the Championship table change at the end of the day 24 times, already five times more than it did in the whole of last season (19). The last time the lead changed hands more times in a single second-tier campaign was in 2019-20 (33).
As of 25 March, the Opta supercomputer is heavily backing Leeds to do enough for automatic promotion back to the Premier League after two seasons in the second tier.
They finish top of the league (61.7%) and in the top two (89.0%) the most often, but this is down from their chances of the title (75.7%) and automatic promotion (94.5%) a month ago when we last reviewed the projections.
Sheffield United, level on 80 points with Leeds, are the second favourites for automatic promotion (62.6%) and the title (23.8%). Chris Wilder’s side have dropped just five points in their last nine Championship matches (W7 D1 L1), with their only defeat in that run coming at home to Leeds (3-1) on 24 February.
Burnley are the outsiders with the supercomputer (48.4% automatic promotion, 14.5% title), despite only trailing Leeds and Sheff Utd by two points. The Lancashire club are breaking all kinds of defensive records this season, with only 11 goals conceded in 38 games – that 0.29 per-game average is the lowest in any English league season across the top four tiers.
Based on the Opta Power Rankings, Leeds have the joint-easiest run-in of all Championship teams across the last eight games of the season. The average Opta Power Rating of their last eight opponents is 77.8, level with Sheffield Wednesday. Much of the Opta supercomputer’s confidence stems from the opposition that both Leeds and Sheffield United – who have the fourth-easiest run-in – will come up against. Burnley, on the other hand, have a run-in that’s tougher than 17 other Championship clubs.
Looking at Opta’s expected points model, Leeds are clearly the best team in the Championship this season. The model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in every match based on the expected goals (xG) value of all shots taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is then simulated 10,000 times. The expected points for every team in each match can subsequently be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.
It’s not an exact science, as expected goals data doesn’t include a lot of factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots.
However, by looking at how many chances each team has created and conceded, and the quality of those chances, we can get an idea of which sides have been performing better – or worse – than the actual league table suggests.
Leeds have underperformed their expected points total (83) by three points. Compare that to promotion rivals Sheffield United (an overperformance of nearly 19 points) and Burnley (who have overperformed by over 15 points), then it would be a travesty should Leeds not win promotion again.
Which Championship Clubs Will Make the Play-Offs?
For a while, it looked as if the automatic promotion race in the Championship would be between four clubs, but Sunderland have gradually fallen away. Despite this, with 69 points from 38 games, they have already won 13 more than in the whole of last season and equalled their tally from 2022-23 when they made the play-offs.
For the third season running, Sunderland have the youngest side in the Championship. The average age of their starting XI in 2024-25 (23 years, 294 days) is nearly a year younger than the next youngest.
There’s a 12-point gap between them and seventh-place Bristol City, so the Opta supercomputer’s confidence that they’ll finish in the play-off spots seems well placed (99.9%). With Burnley still in with a decent shout of an automatic promotion place, their chance of finishing between third and sixth stands at 51.6%.
Coventry started the season poorly and were 17th in the table when Mark Robins was sacked on 7 November. Frank Lampard came in and began with a four-game winless streak before results began to turn in their favour. No Championship team have won more points in 2025 than the Sky Blues (31), who now sit in the play-off spots with a two-point cushion.
They finish in those play-off places in 69.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations, which is just a bit higher than West Bromwich Albion’s 62.7% chance.
As of 25 March, West Brom have sat in the play-off places for 154 days this season, with only Burnley (211) occupying a spot between third and sixth more regularly. However, the Baggies risk being overtaken by Bristol City (37.9%) or Middlesbrough (17.3%). Playing out fewer draws might help their cause – no team in England’s top four tiers have drawn more league matches than West Brom have this season (18).
Which Teams Will be Relegated to League One?
Even if Luton Town survive this season, it’s been a dismal campaign for the Hatters. Relegated back to the Championship from the Premier League last term, most fans would have expected them to be challenging for promotion once again. The reality has been quite the opposite, with Luton once again battling to avoid the drop.
Not since Sunderland in 2016-17 and 2017-18 have a team suffered consecutive relegations from the Premier League to League One, but Luton could end that run. Four points from safety with eight games left, they are relegated in 81.6% of the most recent 10,000 supercomputer simulations. Five of their last eight matches come against teams currently in the top nine, but they also face crucial matches against Derby County, Stoke City and Hull City – all within six points of Luton.
As of 25 March, Plymouth Argyle have spent 136 days in the relegation zone this season, more than any other team. They sit bottom of the league and six points from safety with eight games remaining, which leads the supercomputer to project their chances of relegation to League One at 96.7%.
Derby occupy the final relegation spot in 22nd, but the appointment of John Eustace as manager has spiked a charge for survival. They have won their last three games and now only a point separates them and the safety of 21st in the table.
The Rams’ chances of relegation stand at 34.6% with the Opta supercomputer, but that’s just behind Cardiff City (33.9%) and Stoke City (28.7%), who are a point ahead of them in the Championship standings.
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances. The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Championship Predictions 2024-25: March Opta Supercomputer Update Opta Analyst.
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