NCAA Tournament action tips off on Tuesday night in Dayton with First Four action. Alabama State vs. Saint Francis (PA) gets the festivities started as those 2 schools fight for the right to be a 16-seed in Auburn‘s bracket.
Then North Carolina has a chance to prove the doubters wrong with a matchup against San Diego State for the right to be an 11-seed that will face 6-seed Ole Miss in Round 1.
The 32 first-round games are where the real excitement happens, though. Upsets will abound in Round 1 — that’s why it’s called March Madness, after all.
College hoops analyst Evan Miyakawa is looking into potential upsets. As you can see below, he named the most likely upset for every seed line in this year’s NCAA Tournament:
Most likely upset by seed-line according to win probabilities at t.co/cegyfz96ax:16 v 1 Norfolk State > Florida (3.6%)15 vs 2 Bryant > Michigan St. (5.7%)14 vs 3 Troy > Kentucky (20%)13 vs 4 Yale > Texas A&M (30%)12 vs 5 Colorado State > Memphis (53%)11 vs 6 VCU >…
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 18, 2025As you can see, a few SEC basketball teams are on upset alert. Florida is the most-likely 1-seed to lose in Round 1. The Gators take on 16-seed Norfolk State. In the 3/14 matchups, Kentucky is most at risk against Troy (largely due to injuries on the Wildcats’ roster).
On the 4/13 line, Texas A&M faces a tough challenge against a Yale team that does a lot of the things that cause the Aggies problems. Evan Miyakawa gives Yale a 30% chance to pull off the upset.
Notably, Miyakawa has VCU over BYU as the most-likely 6/11 upset, instead of Mizzou losing to Drake (which has become a trendy pick in many brackets).
Related: Missouri will launch sports betting at some point in 2025. Stay tuned to Saturday Down South for all of the best DraftKings Missouri promo code information.
And finally, Miyakawa actually gives 9-seed Baylor a 58% chance to “upset” 8-seed Mississippi State in the Round 1 8/9 matchups.
The Madness is about to get started! Which teams will suffer upset losses? We’ll find out soon enough.
NCAA Tournament upsets: Analyst Evan Miyakawa names most-likely upset for every seed line Saturday Down South.
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