Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 14 Mar. Sharply lower Univ. of Michigan ignored. Stocks up ...Middle East

Markets:

In the forex market, the USD was mixed. The greenback was higher vs.:

The dollar was lower vs:

In the US debt market, yields moved higher today:

For the trading week, yields were little changed:

In the US stock market, the broader indices close sharply higher:

However, for the week, each of the broader indices fell for the fourth consecutive week

Technically, the NASDAQ Index did fall to the 38.2% of the move up from the October 2024 low at 17278 and found support buyers.That hold give traders some hope that a low is in place. It will take a move below the level to disappoint the buyers. Although the price bounced, the index remains well below the 200 day MA at 18417.78.

For the S&P index, the price did not reach the 38.2% like the Nasdaq, but the low for the week did take the index down about 10.5% into what is considered correction territory. The bounce today, took the price back higher. On the topside, a swing area between 5642 to 5669.67 needs to be broken, followed by the 200 day MA at 5740.34.

The rise in the US stocks came despite a sharp fall in the University of Michigan sentiment index and its major components.

In March 2025, the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers reported a significant decline in consumer sentiment and a notable rise in inflation expectations compared to February 2025:​

Consumer Sentiment Index: Decreased from 64.7 to 57.9, marking an 11% drop and reaching the lowest level since November 2022. ​

Current Economic Conditions Index: Fell from 75.1 to 69.3, indicating a 7.7% decline. ​

Index of Consumer Expectations: Declined from 58.4 to 53.3, a decrease of 8.7%. ​

One-Year Inflation Expectations: Increased from 4.3% to 4.9%, the highest reading since late 2022. ​

Five-Year Inflation Expectations: Rose from 3.5% to 3.9%, reaching the highest level since early 1993.

Democrats' expectations dropped 20%, Republicans' fell 10%, and Independents' declined 12%, reaching their lowest level since 2023.

This downturn in consumer sentiment reflects growing concerns about economic policies, including tariffs and trade tensions, which are contributing to heightened inflation expectations. The broad-based decline across various demographic groups suggests widespread apprehension about future economic conditions. Elevated inflation expectations present challenges for policymakers, particularly the Federal Reserve, as they balance efforts to manage inflation and support economic growth.

Next week, the market will be focused on the Fed rate decision, which will take place on Wednesday. At the meeting the Fed will also release the dot plot and the central tendencies for GDP, Inflation and Unemployment. Will the Fed increase the rate cuts to 3 from 2? Will they be as negative on inflation as the Univ. of Michigan?

In addition to the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England will all announce interest rate decisions.

Here is a list of the major releases next week:

Monday, March 17

Tuesday, March 18

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