Why Russia should be worried by a rare Ukrainian F16 sighting ...Middle East

Rare footage has emerged of what is believed to be the first sighting of a Ukrainian Air Force F-16AM Fighting Falcon in combat equipped with glide bombs.

Until now, it was widely expected that Ukraine’s F-16AMs would be used primarily for air defence, staying away from the front lines to avoid losing the expensive aircraft in battle.

But new footage shows the jet carrying US-supplied GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs (SDBs) at a low altitude — a manoeuvre often used by experienced pilots to avoid radar detection and improve the accuracy of guided strikes.

The all-weather GBU-39 glide bomb is guided by both GPS and an Inertial Navigation System [INS], helping it hit targets with high precision and reducing the probability of collateral damage. Weighing just 250lb, this means aircraft can hold quadruple the number of weapons they usually carry, according to defence intelligence firm Janes. The bombs’ extended range also allows aircraft to strike from a safer distance.

This suggests that Kyiv is now taking the fight directly to Russian forces as Moscow makes slow but steady advances in Kursk and Donetsk.

The F-16AM’s firepower extends far beyond glide bombs. The aircraft can also be equipped with JDAM-ER precision-guided bombs, ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoys (MALDs), and French-made Hammer missiles — giving Ukraine the ability to strike deep into Russian-held territory.

Yet the long-awaited arrival of these fighter jets has been plagued by delays, compounded by the extensive training required for Ukrainian pilots and maintenance crews. The sight of these aircraft in action, carrying offensive munitions for the first time, will serve as a much-needed morale boost for Kyiv’s forces.

Ukraine confirmed on Thursday that it had also received its first batch of French Mirage 2000 fighter jets, as well as additional US-made F-16s from the Netherlands. However, analysts warn that this may have come too late to make a decisive difference on the battlefield.

“In 2022 and 2023, some had high hopes that the provision of F-16s would be a game-changer for Ukraine,” said Keir Giles of the London-based think-tank Chatham House. “Yet their final introduction has been something of a ‘soft launch,’ without the expectations of a sudden and dramatic impact that accompanied other high-profile weapons deliveries.”

He added that Russia had had ample time to prepare for their arrival, further limiting their immediate effectiveness. “The delay in making the decision to provide the aircraft now seems more misplaced than ever. What is more, Russia has had plenty of time to plan for their appearance and adapt accordingly.”

Russia launched 83 Iranian-made Shahed-type combat drones over the past day, with Ukrainian forces managing to intercept 61, Kyiv said on Monday. The remaining drones struck multiple regions, killing at least two civilians and injuring 16, including in Donetsk and Kherson. Ukrainian authorities also reported shelling casualties in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia.

Meanwhile, Ukraine intensified its campaign against Russia’s energy infrastructure. Overnight, drones targeted the Afipsky oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region, one of the country’s key refineries with a processing capacity of over six million tonnes of oil per year.

Shell gas shipments are being escorted by Kremlin-backed icebreaker boats

Drone attacks on Russian oil facilities have tripled in the past two months, as Ukraine targets the supply chains fuelling Moscow’s war effort. While these strikes are unlikely to cripple Russia’s military machine, they add pressure on the Kremlin at a time when its forces are grinding forward on the front lines.

Moscow’s sheer manpower advantages are continuing to push Ukrainian forces back. Russia says its troops have taken control of the eastern Ukrainian city of Toretsk, a strategically significant urban centre in the eastern region of Donetsk. Moscow is now focusing on Pokrovsk, a vital logistics hub southwest of Toretsk.

Further north in the Russian border region of Kursk, where Ukraine holds territory, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank tracking the front line, said there was geolocated footage showing that Ukrainian forces had advanced towards the villages of Makhnovka and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.

According to Russia’s state news agency Tass, Russia’s defence ministry said it repelled all three offensives in the Kursk region in one night over the weekend, little more than six months after Ukraine invaded in a surprise attack.

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