With about a year and nine months until the 2026 elections, the first forecast of House races is out.
So far, only one Southern California race is rated as a toss-up by election analyst Cook Political Report: California’s 45th Congressional District, where Rep. Derek Tran, D-Orange, eked out a win and flipped the seat from red to blue in November.
The Cook Political Report defines toss-up races as “the most competitive,” where “either party has a good chance of winning.”
In November, Tran edged out incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel by just 653 votes in the most expensive House race — the second-to-last to be called by the Associated Press.
The 45th District, which includes parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties, has 37.07% registered Democrats, 33.05% registered Republicans and 24.22% voters with no party preference, according to the secretary of state’s latest voter registration data from late October.
Tran already plans to run for reelection.
The seat, which is mostly in Orange County, helped narrow the House Republicans’ majority, which now stands at just three seats.
While Democrats “remain in recovery mode” and are divided on how to respond to the Trump administration quickly pushing forward its agenda, Erin Covey, an analyst at the Cook Political Report, said, “If history repeats itself, voters will be looking for an opportunity to put a check on the party in power next November.”
Meanwhile, other Orange County House seats are less competitive this early on in the cycle, according to the elections forecaster.
California’s 47th District, represented by Rep. Dave Min, D-Irvine, who plans to run for reelection, is rated as “lean Democrat.”
The district is nearly evenly split between registered Republicans (34.87%) and Democrats (34.83%), with nearly 24% of voters having no party preference.
And California’s 49th District seat, covering parts of Orange and San Diego counties, is rated “likely Democrat,” while the 40th District seat, in western San Bernardino and Riverside counties and eastern Orange County, is rated “likely Republican.”
Sign up for Down Ballot, our Southern California politics email newsletter. Subscribe here.The Cook Political Report defines these races as “not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.”
Both Reps. Young Kim, the Republican who represents the 40th District, and Mike Levin, a Democrat who represents the 49th District, plan to run for reelection. And already, some challengers have announced their campaigns, including San Diego Supervisor Jim Desmond in the 49th District and art dealer Esther Kim Varet in the 40th.
It’s still early in the cycle, and these ratings could change closer to Election Day.
Toward the end of the 2024 cycle, forecasts for the 45th District shifted in Tran’s favor, pointing to his gains among “typically Republican-leaning voters in Little Saigon” and strong fundraising numbers.
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