The delicate, diffident dance surrounding Keir Starmer’s push for a softer Brexit finally seems poised to give way to the UK and EU actually thrashing out a deal.
It’s not just this week’s announcement of an UK-EU summit in May indicating that things have turned serious.
The diplomatic niceties of recent months are fading as hard-headed negotiation begins. And splits on both sides of the talks have already emerged.
This week, The i Paper revealed Cabinet tensions over the EU’s demand for a youth mobility scheme.
Reports have meanwhile suggested Brussels will demand a deal on fishing rights before considering agreeing any other agreements or co-operation, in what was seen as a blow to Starmer.
But both EU and UK sources believe this is far from a settled position in Brussels, and actually reveals splits between member states, which could play to the Prime Minister’s advantage as he looks for early wins in his reset.
The pace is also picking up elsewhere with a revamped Government communications strategy, with Starmer and EU Relations Minister Thomas-Symonds and others are now taking a more explicit and confident approach to explaining the benefits and the case for closer ties with Brussels, as well as more detail on what the UK wants from it.
Starmer this week revealed at a dinner with EU leaders the UK’s desire for “industrial collaboration” on defence which would see British firms granted access to European procurement.
Thomas-Symonds meanwhile decided to write in the Daily Telegraph to directly tell Brexiteer readers he would negotiate with “ruthless pragmatism, leaving ideologically driven division in the past in search of mutually beneficial areas of interest for both sides”.
Business asked to back a deal
Business leaders have also been asked to take to the airwaves to make the case for the reset, and particularly aligning with EU law to boost trade, as the Government attempts to get ahead of any Brexiteer backlash, according to one industry insider.
Although it is understood no explicit request has been made by the Government, encouraging outside voices to amplify messages is a common tactic used by ministers.
Despite the pace and new found confidence in Westminster, there remain hurdles.
European Parliament Brexit reset lead Sandro Gozi has told The i Paper that Starmer must “take sides” in the looming trade war between Donald Trump’s United States and the EU, an approach the PM rejects, and has warned the UK will have to pay into the Brussels budget to unlock a deal on defence cooperation.
Gozi who is an MEP in France and is regarded as an ally of Emmanuel Macron – is openly backing a “package” approach to negotiations, telling The i Paper the UK must show “concrete will” on fishing rights if it wants a deal on defence and security.
He called for “parallel” talks on fishing rights and a security deal to build trust and “move together” on different “layers” of issues.
The UK needs to show “concrete will to finish the job we have started” with the current deal giving the EU rights to fish in British waters running out in 2026.
“These things can go in parallel, they can even reinforce them mutually, but they must go both [together],” he said.
This is not an approach that has universal approval among EU member states, however.
Some, led by France, may want to take the package approach to negotiations in which nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, presenting the UK with tricky trade-offs on fish and potentially youth mobility.
Germany and Poland put defence first
But other nations such as Germany and Poland, which holds the rotating EU presidency, want a “two-tier” approach with a defence and security deal agreed regardless of talks on other issues because it is viewed as vital at a time of deep global instability, a European diplomatic source said.
The source said: “There is not an EU approach to the negotiations so far because the [European] Commission needs a mandate, and that has not even been discussed”.
“We have been discussing bits and pieces and a general attitude, I think there are different approaches between different member states.
“The Commission is trying not to be too outspoken because they know there are different opinions between the member states.”
They said that those who favour the two-tier approach acknowledge the need for a fishing deal, but suggested this should be packaged with trade, rather than defence and security. “because how else can you negotiate if there’s not give and take on both sides”.
It is understood that the UK also does not believe it will be forced to trade fishing rights for security, with the Government planning instead for a “fish-for-trade” negotiation, that is also likely to include talks on the EU’s demand for a youth mobility scheme.
UK wants quotas on any youth mobility scheme
As reported by The i Paper this week, some ministers are beginning to make the case for a compromise in this area, but the thinking in Government is that any scheme must not be uncapped – as demanded by the EU – and should instead be subject to quotas on the number of Europeans who can come to the UK every year.
One Whitehall source said that there were “established mechanisms”, including quotas, in UK youth mobility deals with the likes of Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Japan and South Korea, which the Government would want to see replicated.
As the reset process accelerates, UK sources have also sought to tackle EU criticism that the Government has been slow to set out what it wants. They argue that it was important for different departments to work through policy issues – for example Defra on a deal to ease food trade or the Ministry of Defence on security – before Starmer and Thomas-Symonds can put forward concrete positions.
The announcement of the summit on 19 May is now expected to lead to a flurry of talks on the various issues, with Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen no doubt keen to have something to show for their much-vaunted reset.
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