Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction: League Cup Semi-Final ...Middle East

Newcastle caused a shock in the first leg of this League Cup semi-final, winning 2-0 at the Emirates Stadium. Can they complete the job in front of their own fans? We look ahead to the game with our Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction and preview.

Newcastle vs Arsenal Stats: The Key Insights

Newcastle United are one game away from reaching their third League Cup final and a second in three seasons, with the home leg of the semi-final against Arsenal all that stands in their way.

They lost the 2022-23 showpiece to Manchester United having also been beaten their first League Cup final appearance back in 1976 to Manchester City (2-1). Now, they are hoping it’ll be third time lucky as they face the Gunners at St James’ Park, leading 2-0 from the first leg in London.

The Magpies’ heroes at the Emirates Stadium last month were Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon, who stunned Mikel Arteta’s side in front of their own fans with a goal each in the 10 minutes either side of half-time.

After also scoring in the Premier League win over them in November, Isak has netted in both games against Arsenal in all competitions this season, with each being the opening (and ultimately, winning) goal of the game. No Newcastle player has ever scored in three different games against the Gunners in a single campaign.

Arsenal have hit some form following that week of disappointing cup action in January, as they lost the first leg of this tie and exited the FA Cup on penalties to Manchester United just five days later. They are now unbeaten in six games, winning five of those, including a superb 5-1 win over reigning champions Man City in the league on Sunday.

They’ll need to find the net once again on Wednesday night, as they have a two-goal deficit to make up. Before this season, there have been 32 instances of a side losing the first leg of a League Cup semi by a margin of two or more goals. Only one of those have progressed to the final, with Aston Villa overturning a 3-1 first-leg deficit against second-tier Tranmere Rovers in 1993-94.

Newcastle’s first-leg win formed part of a sensational nine-game winning streak between mid-December and mid-January in all competitions, but they have since lost two of their last three matches, both at home, against Bournemouth and Fulham. The Magpies haven’t lost three home games in a row since February 2021, which was nine months before current boss Eddie Howe took over at the club.

Arsenal failed to score in their last two trips to St James’ Park, with Martin Ødegaard the last player to score a goal for them there back in May 2023. The Norwegian talisman opened the scoring in the weekend win over Man City and now has two goals in his last three competitive matches after going 13 games without one for the club.

Arteta will still be missing the services of some crucial first-team players for this clash, with Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu sidelined, but the coach will be buoyed by the excellent performances of his academy products in their absence, with Ethan Nwaneri and Myles Lewis-Skelly both impressing in recent months.

Newcastle will hope to have Joelinton in their squad, although Howe has said he will be a major doubt following an injury sustained in their defeat to Fulham at the weekend. Some more positive news could see Callum Wilson return to the squad for the first time since December, but Harvey Barnes and Jamaal Lascelles are still out.

Newcastle vs Arsenal Head-to-Head

Newcastle have won four of their last seven meetings with Arsenal in all competitions (D1 L2), as many as they had in their previous 45 against the Gunners. They’ve never beaten Arsenal in three different matches in a single campaign before, however.

Arsenal lost the first leg against Newcastle 2-0 last month despite having 23 shots and posting an xG total of 3.2. They also lost 1-0 at St James’ Park in the Premier League back in November. Only against three sides have Arsenal failed to score in three different games in a single season in the 21st century (Liverpool in 2021-22, Chelsea in 2013-14 and Man Utd in 2004-05).

Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction

Arsenal are the favourites to win this match inside 90 minutes, according to the Opta supercomputer, winning on the night in 47.6% of the pre-game simulations. However, a victory might not be enough for them to progress – they have to win by two clear goals to stand any chance of making the EFL Cup final. Even then, they could still be knocked out in extra-time or after a penalty shootout.

Newcastle won or drew inside 90 minutes in 52.4% of simulations, with either result enough to take them to the final at Wembley Stadium on Sunday 16 March.

Overall, the Opta supercomputer sees Newcastle reach the EFL Cup final in 82.5% of simulations, while Arsenal only progress 17.5% of the time.

The winner of this tie will face either Liverpool or Tottenham Hotspur in the final, with Liverpool the supercomputer’s favourites to make it through (61.3%) despite losing the first leg 1-0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in January.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off Wednesday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction: League Cup Semi-Final Opta Analyst.

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