The ongoing fight between the Trump administration and certain media outlets over the full extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear program from U.S. airstrikes misses the much larger picture of what they mean for the future of the Middle East.
Quite simply, in its myopic focus on just how damaged the Fordow facility is, both the media and the administration are missing the true impact of what occurred and what the outcome may be.
President Trump’s decision to strike Iran’s main nuclear facilities – and the beating Tehran took during its 12-day war with Israel – open the door to fundamental changes in the Middle East.
Foremost among them are significantly higher chances for genuine peace in the region, particularly if the U.S. and Israel seize this opportunity via active diplomacy to turn tactical wins into strategic victories.
With that in mind, Israeli media reported on a phone call between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu following the U.S. strikes, where they discussed next steps.
These included winding down the war in Gaza and expanding the Abraham Accords to include Syria, Saudi Arabia, and others.
In no uncertain terms, if the U.S. and Israel do in fact build upon these developments, the Middle East will see its most profound shakeup since the fall of the Ottoman Empire.
Put another way, as I wrote in these pages last week, “Moderate Arab countries will now be able to build upon the Abraham Accords and develop a more prosperous region, free from the dangers of a nuclear armed Iran.”
To be sure, the increasing possibility of a more peaceful Middle East is not solely due to Trump’s decision to strike Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
Rather, it is the culmination of the more than 20-month war Israel – with help from the U.S. – has fought against Iran’s proxies and eventually the regime itself.
Indeed, for nearly fifty years, the Iranian regime has been the root cause of the tremendous chaos in the Middle East.
When the Shah was toppled in 1979, the new regime spread and then nurtured Islamist movements, which soon became terrorist groups, throughout the region, eventually forming a “Shia Crescent.”
From Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza through Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria, Shia militias in Iraq and the Gulf, and into Yemen via the Houthi Rebels, Iran spread its tentacles far and wide.
Via direct support – funding and arms – or indirect support – inspiring radical beliefs of a true Islamist government – Iran’s Ayatollah’s and its terrorist proxies effectively held the Middle East hostage.
As Iranian influence spread, virtually every country it touched soon descended into civil war, causing states to fail and the spread of terrorism, both of which contributed to decades of violence in the Middle East.
Moreover, Iran’s corrosive influence also extended to the region’s most high-profile conflict: that between Israel and the Palestinians.
By positioning itself as the most powerful and vocal supporter of the “Palestinian cause” Persian Iran held outsized influence on the “Arab street” where anti-Israel feelings are particularly animating among populations from Morocco to Iraq.
Underscoring just how powerful and destabilizing Tehran had become, Saudi Arabia – a longtime enemy of Iran – put centuries of animosity aside to normalize ties in March 2023.
This deal, brokered by China, reflected Saudi Arabia’s intense concerns over the power of Iran to inflame passions within the Kingdom, and potentially drag Saudi Arabia – and the region – into war.
When that war came – seven months after the Iran-Saudi deal – it marked the beginning of the end of Iran’s proxy network, eventually culminating in a humiliating defeat for the Iranian regime itself and opening the doors to a fundamental shakeup in the Middle East.
Now, with Iran battered and weakened, Hamas and Hezbollah virtually destroyed, and Assad hiding in Moscow, Iranian influence over the affairs of Arab countries will wane.
Moreover, the combination of restoring American deterrence with the remarkable ingenuity Israel showed serve as a stark reminder to Arab countries of the benefits of moving closer to the West and further from Moscow and Beijing.
As Israeli jets dominated the skies over Iran, Tehran’s biggest benefactors – Russia and China – offered little aside from words.
At the same time U.S. and Israeli airstrikes were pounding Iranian nuclear facilities built by Russia, China, and North Korea, and as Iranian diplomats rushed to Moscow and Beijing to beg for assistance, neither Putin nor Xi were willing to give their “ally” the smallest bit of military assistance.
The contrast of Russia and China refusing to help Iran with the unparalleled power and cooperation displayed by the U.S. and Israel is noteworthy due to a trend that emerged during the Obama and Biden administrations.
Then, perceptions that the U.S. was a declining power turning away from the Middle East spurred Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E begin cozying up to Moscow and Beijing.
Trump’s willingness to unleash the American military and the supremacy of American and Israeli weapons over Iran’s Russian and Chinese arms should immediately arrest and reverse that trend.
Finally, even though the Khamenei regime survived the 12-day war, the impact of the war on the regime’s longevity should not be overlooked.
Iranians deeply hate their government, and while it was a mistake to assume the populace would rise up in the middle of the fighting, it is entirely possible that the war and ensuing crackdowns on citizens will exacerbate this tension, leading to a popular uprising.
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Of course, it is possible that Iran reconstitutes its nuclear program, rebuilds its proxy network, and ignites more conflicts. Preventing this will require constant outreach to countries in the region.
Nevertheless, with Iran defanged, and the benefits of ties with Israel and the U.S. looking increasingly attractive to moderate Arab countries, peace and prosperity in the Middle East appears closer than at any point in recent years.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant. Saul Mangel is vice president at Schoen Cooperman Research
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