Who is winning the global arms race? ...Middle East

The UK must prepare for war in its homeland, the Government’s new security strategy warned this week.

The head of the British Army has identified the four key countries posing threats to the UK: Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, which are increasingly collaborating.

Nato chief Mark Rutte has suggested Russia could be in a position to attack a member of the alliance within five years.

The Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia – home to the largest contingent of British troops anywhere outside of the UK – are considered some of the most likely targets. All were under Soviet rule, host Russian minority populations, and have long borders with Russia today.

Under Nato’s Article 5 defence clause, an attack on one member of the alliance is considered an attack on all – meaning the UK could be drawn into direct confrontation.

As the risk of conflict rises, nations continue to build up their military capabilities in a global arms race – which in turn escalates risk.

Here, defence experts compare the capabilities of the UK’s greatest threats in an attempt to asses just how much of a risk they pose.

In September 2024, Russian president Vladimir Putin issued an order to increase the size of the Russian military to 1.5 million, offering lucrative bonuses for recruits – estimated to be up to 22 times the average Russian monthly wage.

Russia is believed to be recruiting 30,000 new recruits a month, US officials said earlier this year.

It has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, with a stockpile estimated at 5,580 warheads, of which 4,380 are operational. They can be launched from air, land and sea.

Russia also has a large submarine fleet with an estimated 64 vessels, of which 16 are nuclear-armed submarines, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

How that compares to Nato

Nato dramatically outstrips Russia in military capabilities on land, air and sea, according to information gathering by defence intelligence company Janes for The i Paper.

The alliance’s 32 member countries can draw upon around 3.5 million personnel, more than double Russia’s force after its planned expansion.

Nato’s nuclear deterrence is operated by the US and UK. France is also a nuclear power but it currently does not use its nuclear capabilities for Nato-wide defence. However, Paris has indicated this may change.

Alongside the UK’s four nuclear submarines, the US has a vast nuclear arsenal, which can be launched from land, air and sea.

It keeps 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles in hardened silos in five US states which can be launched from land, operates 14 nuclear submarines which can carry up to 20 ballistic missiles, and has 66 aircraft which can carry nuclear warheads.

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'You can feel Putin's threat': The British soldiers guarding Nato's Russian border

The risk verdict? Russia would ‘lose quickly to Nato’ – but it all depends on Trump

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, UK’s Chief of the Defence Staff, said that Russia would be swiftly defeated by Nato.

Nato’s collective GDP is twenty times greater than Russia’s, and its total defence budget is three-and-a-half times more than Russia’s and China’s combined, Radakin said last year.

“The inescapable fact is that any Russian assault or incursion against Nato would prompt an overwhelming response,” he said.

“The biggest reason that Putin doesn’t want a conflict with Nato is because Russia will lose. And lose quickly.”

But the strength of the alliance depends on the level of US participation.

The US spends by far the most on defence as a percentage of GDP of any country – four times as much as the next largest country, China – and is home to 1.32 million of Nato’s troops and much of its most advanced technology.

Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to leave Nato or reduce US support, though UK and European defence insiders told The i Paper there has been no change to military engagement with the US since his inauguration.

Trump: ‘We Blew Iran’s Nuclear Sites To Kingdom Come’ President Donald Trump gives press conference at NATO summit in The Hague. Trump, NATO, PressConference, TheHague, Netherlands, Politics, WorldNews, InternationalRelations,

Justin Bronk, an air power expert at defence think-tank Rusi, said that Nato’s air dominance depended significantly on American support.

“If Nato forces could rapidly degrade and start to roll back the ground-based air defences, then even European air forces with minimal US direct support would likely have rapid successes in achieving air superiority against the Russian VKS [air force],” he said.

“However, Nato is currently heavily reliant on the US air force and EA-18G electronic attack and defence suppression aircraft from the US navy to degrade and destroy those Russian ground-based air defences.”

The comparative strength of Nato in a conflict situation also depends on whether it is facing Russia alone, or supported by Russian allies.

Moscow would almost certainly be supported by Belarus, a Russian satellite state which houses some Russian nuclear warheads and which has an army of around 60,000 but can call up far more as reserves.

Depending on origins of the conflict, Russia could also work with North Korea and Iran – both of which have been supporting its war in Ukraine – or China.

China has around three million active duty personnel, making it the largest force in the world, according to US officials.

It also has the largest maritime force in the world, operating 234 warships compared to the US navy’s 219 and the UK’s 70.

As part of this, China is believed to have 60 submarines, of which six can carry out nuclear attacks, with plans to grow the fleet to 65 this year.

Xi Jinping’s regime may once again resort to abrasive ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy as it seeks to project strength at home and abroad (Photo: Florence Lo/Reuters)

It could overtake the US’s naval firepower by 2027, measured by the total number of advanced missile launchers it has, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Beijing has made significant investments in its armed forces in recent years, with the world’s second largest defence budget last year.

In 2023, its aircraft numbered at least 600, rising from less than a hundred in 2016. It has continued developing new planes and upgrading old ones over the past year, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) annual Military Balance analysis.

It is also growing its nuclear warhead stockpile at a faster rate than any other country, with an estimated 600 in its possession, a report released last week found.

North Korea

North Korea has a disproportionately large military for its population, with an estimated 1.28 million active personnel, according to IISS.

Pyongyang also has one of the largest submarine fleets in the world with an estimated 83, two of which can carry ballistic missiles, the Nuclear Threat Initiative said.

However, its navy is considered inferior to its rivals, and a new warship capsized during its launch last month.

In 2020, it was estimated to have 400 fighter aircraft, 80 light bombers and more than 200 transport aircraft, but it was not clear how many were operational.

North Korea is continuing to make advances in its nuclear programme and says it is nuclear capable, but there is no evidence it has successfully integrated a warhead with any of its ballistic missile systems, IISS said.

Last year, North Korea and Russia ratified a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, confirming their military co-operation.

Iran is estimated to have 600,000 regular troops, while the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has around 200,000.

It is believed to have between 19 and 27 submarines and 350 aircraft, which have been reported to be fairly antiquated.

The state of Iran’s nuclear programme – which it claims is for civilian purposes, but analysts believe is intended to create a weapon – is not clear after it suffered wide-ranging attacks by Israel recently.

While Trump claimed Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility had been “eliminated”, a leaked report argues that joint US and Israeli attacks may only have set Iran’s nuclear programme back by fewer than six months.

How the UK compares

The UK has 180,780 total military personnel across all reserves and regular forces in all three branches, and had the fifth largest defence spending globally last year.

It has 10 submarines and 70 vessels, and 3,316 pieces of land combat equipment including tanks and personnel carriers, as of last year.

It also had 183 drones, 556 fixed-wing aircraft and 268 helicopters.

The UK is a nuclear power, operating four nuclear-armed submarines known as Trident.

But should the UK go to war, it would almost certainly be in co-operation with Nato allies.

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