For all its multilateralism and high-minded talk of collective defence, Nato has always depended – militarily, financially, and symbolically – on the United States. The alliance’s founding principle, that an attack on one is an attack on all, only holds weight because of the assumed backing of American firepower. As Nato leaders gather in The Hague next week for what could be one of its most consequential summits, that assumption is under renewed strain.
Donald Trump’s long-standing hostility to Nato, once dismissed as bluster, now poses a real and present danger. His repeated threats to withdraw the US from the alliance if re-elected have rattled European capitals and triggered a reckoning over the continent’s military reliance on Washington.
With war raging in Ukraine and confidence in US security guarantees at a historic low, the summit will test not only Nato’s cohesion but its credibility as a deterrent in an unstable world.
Founded in 1949, Nato was designed to keep the US – the world’s dominant military power – engaged in European security, primarily to counter the Soviet threat in Eastern Europe. Trump’s America First pledge has helped to cast doubt over that engagement. And his transactional and impatient diplomatic style is only adding to the uncertainty.
Trump’s decision to leave this week’s G7 summit in Canada a day early suggests that even his presence in the Hague cannot be guaranteed. But there is a much more fundamental issue at stake: Will he support a gradual rebalancing of leadership toward Europe – or storm out in frustration?
Lord Ricketts, a former UK government national security adviser, believes Trump “won’t pull out entirely – there is no roadmap for this in the treaty – but he will likely ratchet down the US commitments”. How quickly that happens depends on Trump himself.
Trump wants Nato states to commit to spending 5 per cent of their GDP to be spent on defence. The i Paper reported this week that the UK has requested a three year delay to the 5 per cent target by extending the deadline to 2035, with a review clause in 2029.
So, with all this going on in the background and Trump’s focus likely to be on Iran and Israel, what can – and should – Sir Keir Starmer do to try and keep the leader of Nato’s most important member state onside when the pair meet in the Netherlands on Tuesday?
The US currently contributes 15.8 per cent of Nato’s total budget and spends around 3.4 per cent of GDP on defence, according to the World Bank. The UK, by contrast, spends 2.3 per cent. Trump has called for members to commit 5 per cent, as has Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte, who said earlier this month that the UK must accept a 5 per cent commitment or “learn to speak Russian”.
Trump’s team have made clear they see Europe as not paying their way. The Signalgate group chat leaks revealed the strength of that feeling when Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense, told Vice-President JD Vance: “I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC.”
To combat this, Starmer can point to last week’s spending review – where he pledged to raise defence spending to 2.5 per cent of national income by 2027 – and the UK’s ambition to get to 5 per cent, even if it does want to extend the deadline to 2035.
But as Dr Karin von Hippel, former Director-General of the RUSI defence think-tank, suggests, it’s not only the amount of money that matters.
“It’s not just about what you spend, but how you spend it,” she says. “Europe could be militarily more efficient and integrated. The Ukrainians have shown phenomenal resourcefulness. Their drone innovations have been incredibly effective and not that expensive.”
Convincing Trump that Western European powers can achieve the same nimble efficiency could help to persuade that him that it’s not the US doing all the work.
2. Get the messaging right to buy Europe more time
With limited resources to boost defence spending quickly, as evidenced by Starmer’s request for 10 years’ grace, effective communication to keep Trump onside will be key. “Britain needs to get the messaging right to the Americans about how we’ll reach that increased spending – and how fast,” says Sir Laurie Bristow, the UK’s former ambassador to Russia during Trump’s first term.
Trump’s impatience and form for sudden early departures means any transition toward greater European leadership must be carefully managed. Bristow believes Starmer must “convince Trump that it’s in the US interest for Nato countries to be capable allies and that they’ll work with him to achieve this”.
The UK will also need to reassure Trump by talking about, and demonstrating, the incremental progress it can make on the way to the 5 per cent target.
Lord Ricketts agrees: “Ideally, there would be a transitional period of five to eight years if the US seeks to reduce its role, allowing Europe time to plug the financial hole.”
Peter Apps, former Reuters global defence correspondent and author of Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of Nato, cautions against expecting Starmer – or anyone else – to sway Trump through rhetoric.
“The idea that Starmer, Macron or even Zelenskyy could argue Trump into changing his mind plays incredibly badly in Washington,” says Apps. “It often seems like Europeans are telling the Americans to do more, without offering anything meaningful in return and at worst, it implies the US President needs to be walked back to a sensible course by smarter Europeans.”
So how can Starmer handle this? Apps suggests Starmer might bet on Trump’s soft spot for Britain. “A state visit is one option. Or working with Trump to bring the European Open Golf Championships to his Scottish course.” Whether that is enough to offset the large gap in defence expenditure is another question.
4. Appeal to Trump’s peacemaking sensibilities
Trump wants a Nobel Peace Prize – badly. “They will never give me a Nobel Peace Prize,” he told Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in March 2025. “It’s too bad. I deserve it.” In his inaugural address in January he said his “proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier”. Would Trump want to be remembered as the man who triggered a Russian invasion of Nato territory?
To counter that, Starmer can highlight the existential threat. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala told the Globsec Forum last week that the war in Ukraine “concerns our own security.” He warned that Europe lives “close to a country…which is not able to run itself – but always wanted to run the world”. Starmer can echo that urgency in the Hague. By reminding the Nato leaders – who do still include Trump – that alliance’s core mission remains protecting European security.
Bronwen Maddox, chief executive of foreign policy think-tank Chatham House, advocates a strategy with an emphasis on unity and the threat posed by Putin: “Starmer can show solidarity with other Nato members about the importance of containing Russia – and trying to establish that force doesn’t pay,” she says.
This might help Trump see that by undermining this togetherness he could potentially be scuppering the world’s most successful military alliance, which has ensured peace in its member states for more than 75 years.
5. Don’t let Trump feel left out
Will there be a pre-summit meet for the “coalition of the willing” that Starmer formed back in February to all get on the same page before the official business begins in The Hague?
The danger is that there is a perception of the US and – to a lesser extent – Hungary being left out and isolated.
Ricketts thinks the coalition will be alive to the risk. “I don’t think European leaders will want to meet as a group without Trump,” he says. “That would look like conspiring behind his back. So I think the networking will go on bilaterally or in discreet huddles.”
Starmer will have to tread a careful line between showing Trump that the UK, France and Germany can lead Nato, as the most established military powers, whilst also managing his fragile ego to stop him from pulling out suddenly.
Ricketts says that a win for Starmer at next week’s summit will be “a sense of unity in Nato [and] avoiding rows and splits”. No pressure then, Prime Minister.
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