Nine NFL teams plan to hand over the offensive keys to a new starting quarterback. We analyze who will hit the fast lane and who may sputter in the 2025 season.
Quarterback turnover in the NFL is normal, especially when a team drafts a rookie or wants to make a quick fix with a veteran.
Other times, though, teams have a successor waiting in the wings to take over or make a high-profile move in an attempt to upgrade the position.
There’s a mix of that heading into 2025 as nine quarterbacks are expected to be the new starter for their respective team. This includes at least one rookie (No. 1 overall draft pick Cam Ward), one 2024 first-round pick (J.J. McCarthy) and some veterans of various levels of experience.
Not all of these new starters may succeed this year, so before the season kicks off, let’s take a look at which quarterbacks are in the best or worst spots.
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J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
McCarthy, who was sidelined all of last season with a knee injury, has three very positive elements going for him in his debut campaign with the Minnesota Vikings: a great group of skill position players, an upgraded offensive line and a quality coaching staff.
Sam Darnold threw for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions with the Vikings last season, mainly with receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Tight end T.J. Hockenson returned midway through the season and running back Aaron Jones was an effective pass catcher as well.
That entire group returns for McCarthy, but with a healthier Hockenson as well as ex-San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason and third-round rookie wideout Tai Felton also in tow. That’s a powerful group of weapons for a young quarterback in his first season as a starter.
Minnesota made offensive line upgrades a priority this offseason after making the playoffs despite allowing the 12th-highest run disruption rate (68.8%) and tying for the 13th-highest pressure rate (42.7%) and the fifth-highest sack rate allowed (8.4%). Not only did the Vikings sign guard Will Fries for $88 million and center Ryan Kelly $18 million, but they also used their first-round pick on Ohio State guard Donovan Jackson.
Fries and Kelly were two of the best pass- and run-blocking interior linemen in 2024, while Jackson finished his final season with the national champion Buckeyes with a 7.9% run disruption rate allowed, an 8.5% pressure rate allowed, and a 2.1% adjusted sack rate allowed.
The continuity of coach Kevin O’Connell ties this all together. His offense has been huge for quarterbacks, as his average passing success rate of 41.7% since 2022 ranks 11th in the NFL.
Darnold had a Pro Bowl season under him last year and Kirk Cousins also finished with 4,547 passing yards in his final full season (2022) in Minnesota.
McCarthy is set up for success if he can live up to his draft billing.
Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers
Weirdly, the Steelers are a great fit for Rodgers at this point in his career.
Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Arthur Smith loves to target receivers inside the numbers, and tailored his skill position players toward those types of passing attempts. Rodgers attempted more than half of his passes inside the numbers in 2024, where he also completed 68.9%.
The Steelers’ pass catchers aren’t game-breakers, but they don’t need to be for this to work. DK Metcalf is a big-bodied receiver who can catch anywhere on the field, and he caught around 51% of his passes inside. The same goes for tight end Pat Freiermuth. Even 2024 fourth-rounder Roman Wilson is an inside-the-numbers receiver, similar to veteran Robert Woods.
Given the Steelers sent George Pickens packing in a trade, Rodgers only has one deep threat in Calvin Austin. But again, Rodgers isn’t a deep-ball thrower anymore. His 6.95 air yards per attempt ranked 35 out of 39 quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts in 2024.
The 41-year-old Rodgers may not succeed in Pittsburgh, but the infrastructure around him offered a better chance than with other NFL teams. What could derail him is the team’s porous offensive line that allowed the fifth-highest pressure rate and tied for the fifth-highest sack rate at 45.3% and 8.4%, respectively.
Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders
Smith enters an interesting season. He didn’t have a bad year for the Seattle Seahawks in 2024, yet he was traded to a Raiders team that’s now coached by the man who helped resurrect his career, Pete Carroll. That has to count for something.
While new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly hasn’t coached in the NFL since 2016, he will call the offensive plays and could continue to play off Smith’s traits that thrived under Carroll in 2022 and ’23. During those years, Smith combined for 7,906 passing yards as well as 50 passing touchdowns and 20 interceptions.
The skill position players aren’t fantastic, but Smith will get a solid collection to work with between electric tight end Brock Bowers, veteran receiver Jakobi Meyers, and rookies Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton Jr. Vegas also drafted running back Ashton Jeanty in the first round, which should bring a power-rushing element to the offense.
QBs in a Worse Spot
Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks
Darnold enjoyed a career resurgence in Minnesota, but he might have some trouble repeating that production in Seattle.
Not only do the Seahawks have a new offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak, but the skill position weapons are pretty barren after some major offseason shake-ups. The offensive line doesn’t look much better either after having struggles last season.
While Kubiak had his moments as the offensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints last season, the team floundered down the stretch and injuries took hold of the offense. They finished 22nd in offensive success rate and 30th in pass success rate. That was mostly without Derek Carr under center or competent receivers following injuries to Chris Olave and Rasheed Shaheed, but the Seahawks don’t have much better options.
The Seahawks also traded away Metcalf and released Tyler Lockett while only adding Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdez-Scantling to the receivers unit alongside Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
At 32, Kupp is not the same player he was four years ago when he won the receiving triple crown. He finished last season with a 54.2% burn rate that ranked 32nd out of 40 receivers with at least 100 targets. Smith-Njigba’s 57.7% burn rate wasn’t much better at 26th.
They ranked in the top 30 in both open and catch rate, but that will only take the duo so far in the competitive NFC West.
The offensive line is the biggest concern for Darnold, who left the aforementioned abysmal Vikings’ pass protection for an almost equally awful version with the Seahawks.
Seattle ranked first in pressure rate allowed in 2024 and ninth in sack rate allowed. Except for the centers, every other offensive lineman on the Seahawks allowed a pressure rate of at least 9.0% in 2024.
While Seattle will get Abraham Lucas back for the full season, the only major change they made was adding first-round draft pick Grey Zabel to the interior.
Russell Wilson, New York Giants
The Wilson-Giants marriage will be interesting to follow for two reasons: Neither the quarterback nor his new team were good in 2024, and two other players on the depth chart could easily replace him at any moment – Jameis Winston and rookie Jaxson Dart.
At best, Wilson is a mid-tier quarterback at this point in his career. He ranked 23rd in completion percentage and 16th in open-target rate and catchable-thrown ball rate among 34 quarterbacks with at least 250 passing attempts. However, Wilson was 10th in well-thrown rate.
New York, meanwhile, had the second-lowest offensive success rate at 34.8% and ranked 25th in pass success rate at 36.0%.
Wide receiver Malik Nabers is his best weapon, but he’s much more of an outside receiver. Wilson thrived on passes inside for the Steelers in 2024. His completion rate was 17.2% better, open target rate 17.8% better and well-thrown rate was 10.3% better on passes inside compared to outside.
The offensive line needs a lot of work, too, as it allowed the third-highest pressure rate and the 11th-highest sack rate this past season.
Plus, the Giants will face the NFL’s toughest schedule based off 2024 team winning percentages.
Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns
Similarly to Wilson, Flacco has a lot of competition breathing down his neck. Not only do the Browns have two rookies (Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders) who could take over, but the team also traded for former first-rounder Kenny Pickett, who has ample NFL experience.
Flacco last played for the Browns in 2023, but the offense is barren compared to that season or even what he had with the Indianapolis Colts last year.
The Browns had the NFL’s worst offensive success rate in 2024 and their only major pass-catching additions were Diontae Johnson and tight end Harold Fannin Jr. That leaves Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku as Flacco’s top options. Plus, Tillman was the only Brown with at least 90 routes to have a burn rate of at least 57% a year ago.
This is becoming a trend here, but the offensive line is also poor. Cleveland ranked ninth in pressure rate allowed and tied for second in sack rate allowed. Neither is a good sign for the 40-year-old Flacco.
Too Soon to Know
Justin Fields, New York Jets
Fields’ time in New York will be a fascinating case study because he will be on a different team for the third straight year. The Jets also have a new offensive system under Tanner Engstrand, who comes from the Ben Johnson coaching tree with the Detroit Lions, making an analysis difficult because of the uncertainty as an offensive play-caller surrounding him.
Everything else about the Jets is difficult to ascertain, too. Garrett Wilson is an incredible receiver, but he’s the only experienced weapon apart from running back Breece Hall. Rookie tight end Mason Taylor and receiver Arian Smith could have roles, and veteran receiver Allen Lazard has been inconsistent throughout his career.
Fields was solid in his limited time with the Steelers. When he was the starter from Weeks 1 to 6, Fields was 12th out of 34 with at least 60 passing attempts in completion percentage, 13th in well-thrown rate and sixth in catchable-thrown ball rate. He was 21st in open rate, though.
Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans/Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints
We’re going to loop these two together because while neither is in a particularly good situation, they’re both rookie QBs who could surprise the league. Just look at what Jayden Daniels did with the Washington Commanders a year ago.
Ward is the expected Week 1 starter after the Titans took him No. 1 overall, and he’ll join a team that invested a lot in its offense this offseason. The Titans signed tackle Dan Moore, guard Kevin Zeitler and receiver Tyler Lockett before adding receivers Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor in the draft. They also signed Ward’s favorite college pass catcher, Xavier Restrepo, as an undrafted free agent, to go along with returning wideouts Calvin Ridley and Treylon Burks and tight end Chig Okonkwo.
On paper, that’s not a potent group. But there is a lot of room for improvement on a team that finished 21st in offensive success rate and 24th in pass success rate and allowed the eighth-highest pressure rate while also tying for fifth-highest sack rate allowed.
Meanwhile, Shough might be in a solid position because of the addition of Kellen Moore as his head coach and offensive play-caller. Moore hasn’t always coached juggernaut offenses, but his quarterbacks have typically performed well. Quarterbacks under Moore have had a 42.6% average pass success rate since 2020, which ranks fifth among non-head coaches with at least two years of play-calling experience.
Shough joins an offense with some solid weapons in Olave and Shaheed as well as running back Alvin Kamara. But once again, the offensive line is bad. The unit allowed the fourth-highest pressure rate last season, but oddly enough, ranked 19th in sack rate.
It’s hard to completely gauge for good or bad until the two rookies are in their new offenses. In college, both Ward and Shough had solid catchable-thrown rates and well-thrown rates compared to their peers – both 78% or higher – which put them on par with others such as Dart or Sanders.
While rookies typically start slow, both have the collegiate experience, pedigree and skill set to break out if they get past the initial misgivings of their current teams.
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