Enab Baladi – Mowaffak al-Khouja
The United States has warned of a potential assassination operation against Syrian transitional president Ahmed al-Sharaa, indicating a convergence of interests between Damascus and Washington, prompting the latter to be concerned about the life of a man who is still, at this moment, on terrorism lists, despite his meeting with the American president.
The warning came from the US envoy to Syria and Turkey, Thomas Barrack, during his meeting with the al-Monitor website, published on June 10, stating his fears for al-Sharaa’s safety, saying, “We need to coordinate a protection system around al-Sharaa.”
Common interests
Syrian political researcher Dr. Nader Khalil said that the US interest in protecting al-Sharaa can be interpreted through a geopolitical lens, as a preemptive attempt to prevent Syria from entering an unwanted political and security vacuum if he were to be assassinated or removed.
He added, in his conversation with Enab Baladi, that Western capitals, especially Washington, fear a recurrence of previous scenarios, as occurred in Mosul or Raqqa, where chaos and vacuum enabled the Islamic State to regain control.
The researcher believes that Washington sees al-Sharaa as a “valve” preventing complete collapse in Syria, not as a man for a full phase, and that this requires striving for stability in Syria.
Conversely, Washington may see this as an opportunity to present itself as an international sponsor for balance in a post-war Syria, in the face of Iranian and Russian influence, according to Khalil.
How to protect him?
Researcher at the Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies, Nawar Shaaban, stated that the American message is that al-Sharaa is a “pragmatic” president who seeks to build a strong state and is moving toward a comprehensive political process amidst these dangers.
Shaaban added, in his conversation with Enab Baladi, that the United States can protect al-Sharaa through security, military, and intelligence agreements to eliminate mutual threats which can be classified as dangerous to him.
He pointed out that threats and actual dangers exist, both with or without the American statement, and the latter did not bring anything new, but with this statement, it proves it has the capability or desire or the appropriate climate that aligns with goals, which prepares for possible future cooperation.
At the same time, researcher Shaaban confirmed that there is cooperation currently on some files, but the US operates under a kind of “diplomatic precaution” in front of regional allies and in front of the US interior.
He noted that part of the US administration still views President al-Sharaa as a jihadist who will not change, and thus, with this statement, the United States contradicted that view.
“Soft panic”
Researcher Nader Khalil said that reading between the lines of the American warning indicates a state of “soft panic” over the possibility of an imminent explosion within the Syrian opposition scene, which could revert it to square one and perhaps worse.
He added that Washington seeks to salvage what can be salvaged by providing “symbolic support” to al-Sharaa, not out of love for the man, but out of fear of bad alternatives.
These alternatives, according to Khalil, consist of a security chaos that would tempt the Islamic State to return, bloody conflicts between faction wings, or even the return of the regime with a new façade under Russian or Iranian auspices, leading Syria into a whirlpool of divisions and violence.
In addition to the security dimension, Barrack’s warnings carry a broader strategic dimension, which is preserving a fragile relative stability, enabling the United States to remain a decisive player in Syria without being directly militarily engaged on the ground.
Barrack’s statements indicate that the United States recognizes these dangers and conflicts, and it seems to be a clear declaration that it will not remain neutral, according to researcher Khalil.
He stated that these statements do not come from nowhere but express a clear shift in the American reading of the current Syrian scene, especially concerning the position of the new president, al-Sharaa, within the sensitive balance of the region.
Disgruntled militants
US envoy Thomas Barrack stated in his interview with the al-Monitor that the US administration is concerned that al-Sharaa’s efforts to strengthen inclusive governance and open communication with the West might make him a target for assassination by “disgruntled militants.”
Barrack highlighted the threat posed by factions that broke away from foreign fighters who joined al-Sharaa in the military operation that ousted Bashar al-Assad on December 8, 2024.
He said, “While the new Syrian leadership works to integrate these battle-hardened fighters into its national army, they are targeted for recruitment by groups like the Islamic State.”
Researcher at the Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies, Nawar Shaaban, noted that al-Sharaa has proven to possess high “pragmatism,” thus there are former groups, of which he was a part, that have an interest in his assassination, one of them being the Islamic State, along with other groups he described as “extremist,” in addition to Iranian militias and “remnants” of the previous regime.
On his part, researcher Nader Khalil pointed to indications that Washington is aware of the gravity of the potential existence and extent of divisions within the armed factions in Syria, especially those allied with or part of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which currently forms the nucleus of security and military force in Syria.
Khalil estimates that the entities hinted at by Barrack are “hardline wings” within the HTS itself or in its immediate surroundings, who refuse the new “pragmatic” direction that al-Sharaa has begun to lean toward.
Khalil pointed out that al-Sharaa has opened communication channels with the West and presented himself as an internationally acceptable partner, in exchange for reducing the influence of the more extreme “jihadist” currents within the HTS.
He urged not to underestimate the possibility of the emergence of entities that have begun to reactivate within the Islamic State orbit, or even within itself, attempting to attract discontented individuals from within Tahrir al-Sham itself.
He said that the new Syrian leadership, the more it tends toward political moderation and international realism, increases the likelihood of the rise and growth of insurgent movements from the “radical wing” (extremist).
Some believe, Khalil added, that the Islamic State is currently betting on this fissure to reposition itself in Syria.
The Islamic State called during the opening article of its newspaper “Al-Nabaa,” on May 16, for foreign fighters within the Syrian Ministry of Defense to join its cells in the countryside, claiming that al-Sharaa exploited them to serve his project.
It is no secret that al-Sharaa seeks to reposition Tahrir al-Sham as a local (pragmatic) actor and not a jihadist organization transcending borders, in an attempt to strip it of the label of “terrorism” and present it as a necessary partner in managing Syria.
It seems that this strategy is not unanimously accepted within the HTS, as there are extremist currents, some of which were previously aligned with al-Nusra Front during its association with al-Qaeda, that view this openness as a betrayal of the Salafi jihadist approach, and for these reasons, fears have begun to emerge from some voices that may call for al-Sharaa’s removal, either on charges of doctrinal deviation or allegiance to the West.
Dr. Nader Khalil, Syrian political researcher
Possible external actors
The US envoy to Syria, Thomas Barrack, did not allude to external hands behind the assassination attempts; however, researcher Nader Khalil clarified that in political and security analysis, absence does not mean insignificance.
He stated that it is unreasonable to ignore the possibility of dormant cells linked to the previous Syrian regime or even infiltrated elements by Iranian or Russian intelligence, many of which remain active in various regions of Syria.
He pointed out that some former members of the deposed regime’s security apparatus have entered the new formations of the Syrian security and army, and that these parties still have, according to Khalil, influences through civil intelligence tools.
Khalil hinted that many opinions suggest Iran maintains entangled relationships with militant factions, some of which raised Islamic slogans while working within Tehran’s security agenda.
On the other hand, the Russians retain their political and security cards, especially through connections with former leaders of the regime’s army or through Syrian intermediaries.
Khalil does not rule out the possibility that the Russians view al-Sharaa as a threat to their ambitions in a post-Assad phase, as he could become a Western-backed façade, which does not serve Russian interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Security precautions… Assassination attempts
Researcher Nader Khalil sees the stringent security precautions imposed by al-Sharaa on his movements, such as avoiding public symbolic rituals like Eid prayers in mosques, as not being a religious or personal decision.
He deemed it an expression of deep awareness of the level of looming threats, indicating that performing the Eid prayers in the presidential palace, contrary to what previous presidents in Syria have practiced, might reflect a fragile security phase and signal a real internal threat not to be underestimated.
The Lebanese newspaper “L’Orient-Le-Jour,” published in French, reported on June 12 from unnamed Western sources that al-Sharaa had been subjected to two assassination attempts since assuming power.
According to the sources cited by the newspaper, the latest attempt occurred about two weeks ago, while the first took place in March, with accusations directed towards jihadist groups, including the Islamic State.
The Turkish-affiliated newspaper “Türkiye” reported on February 11 that a meeting took place in the Iraqi city of Najaf between generals from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and officers from the previous regime’s army to orchestrate a coup against the government in Damascus.
Al-Sharaa’s pragmatism threatens his assassination… Warnings and two attempts Enab Baladi.
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