If one tried to judge the politics of Californians by who they elect to represent them in Sacramento, one might think the typical Californian is a leftist ideologue who is really bad with numbers and thinks government action is the solution to every problem known to man.
But recent polling from the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California suggests quite a different picture.
A majority of Californians (57%), it turns out, support downsizing the federal government. Californians, not Texans, not Floridians. Californians.
Driving that is the fact that 58% of Californians said they think the federal government wastes “a lot” of money, while 32% say it at least wastes some.
It turns out, Elon Musk’s DOGE project likely had a lot more support from Golden Staters than one might think based on the hysterical rhetoric Californians are routinely exposed to whenever spending cuts are proposed.
Californians have also turned significantly on the issue of illegal immigration.
A clear majority (58%) oppose California providing health coverage to undocumented immigrants. This is a major reversal from polling on this question going back a decade. As recently as two years ago, 55% of Californians supported the idea of providing health coverage to undocumented immigrants. That in turn was down from a high of 66% in March 2021, but still a clear majority.
It’s no wonder that Gov. Gavin Newsom has found the confidence to propose charging undocumented immigrants in California a fee to receive coverage through Medi-Cal and ending new enrolments for adults.
One other major trend is when Californians are asked if they would “pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services” or “pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services.”
In January 2020, 53% of Californians said they’d rather pay higher taxes and get more government services. Today, just 44% think that way and 55% say they’d prefer to pay less in taxes and get fewer services.
A big majority of Democrats (65%) still prefer paying more in taxes and getting more services, but a significant percentage of independents (62%) would prefer to pay less in taxes and get fewer services.
Clearly, if one-party rule is going to ever give way in California, it will be due to the growing disaffection of independents with the way things are going.
And no doubt, many local governments and certainly the state government are running things in an obviously irresponsible manner.
Only California could turn a $100 billion surplus into a structural budget deficit for years to come.
“According to the administration’s estimates and assumptions, budget deficits are projected to persist in future years, with operating deficits of approximately $15 billion to $20 billion annually through the outlook period,” wrote the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office in an assessment last month. “These deficits would accumulate, resulting in a negative $42 billion balance in the [Special Fund for Economic Uncertainties] by 2028‑29.”
Even still, California lawmakers press on with obvious boondoggles like the high-speed rail project and do nothing about the bloated and dysfunctional K-12 system that continues to lag the rest of the nation.
This is unsurprising. As the great Milton Friedman advised, “Nobody spends somebody else’s money as carefully as he spends his own.”
California lawmakers are losing public confidence because they have mismanaged public funds for far too long. The big progressive pipedreams of state lawmakers are out of step with the needs and interests of ordinary Californians and ordinary taxpayers.
Whether the Democratic Party can moderate itself to meet this shift and whether the Republican Party can capitalize on it remains to be seen.
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