In any conversation about the climate crisis and solutions to deal with it, someone often complains “it costs too much”. But rarely does the discussion consider “compared to what?”
To restate the basics, for several centuries our global energy system has been powered by combustion of fossil fuels, which has slowly changed the atmospheric chemistry, making it more opaque to infrared energy, trapping more heat. As a result, Earth is becoming less habitable for humans, and economic stability is threatened. The solution is twofold: complete economic decarbonization (stop adding to the problem), and carbon dioxide sequestration (returning to an atmosphere we know supports humanity).
The first part requires a complete redesign of our global energy system, with cost estimates of about $60 trillion, which is indeed a lot of money. But compared to what? The global economy already spends $7 trillion on fossil fuels each and every year. However, the cheapest reserves, those easiest to access, have already been burned up, so this annual cost will keep increasing, even if sufficient new reserves are developed.
In contrast, renewable energy is free, already being delivered to the planet, so the cost involves only the hardware to collect and store that free energy. Decarbonizing with renewables would change from a constantly increasing energy bill to a fixed cost infrastructure. Investing in renewables avoids inflation by prepaying decades of energy costs.
Of course, the trillions involved in the fossil fuel industry create massive economic inertia to keep things as they are, since the current economic winners will probably not be the renewable energy winners. But the economics are pushing toward change.
While fossil fuel development will only get more expensive, further exhausting finite resources each year, solar systems are getting cheaper, because improved manufacturing continues to drop the per unit price. In the last fifty years, solar panel prices dropped from $100/watt to $0.50/watt, while gasoline prices increased from $0.20/gal to $5/gal.
Ukiah School district installed canopy solar arrays in three location in PG&E territory, at a cost of $3.00/watt. Over the 25 year life of the system, that will produce electricity costing $0.10/KWhr, one quarter the current cost of the cheapest PG&E power.
The large upfront cost is a problem. However, this is just a financial distribution issue. The explosive shift from horses to automobiles in the early 1900’s was the result of bankers extending auto loans to more people. As more global monied interests see the profit in renewables, the shift will accelerate.
However, if you still think it is too expensive to make the renewable shift even to save money, then consider the cost of doing nothing. More extreme climate is already here, and getting worse. When a community is destroyed, like Paradise, CA, the Big Bend area of Florida, or the storm flooded areas in the east, it can take more than a decade to get back to where they were before the disaster. US economic losses from extreme climate (drought, floods, heat, cold, fires, and storms) are already approaching Pentagon funding levels, with unaccounted increases in health and grocery costs.
Extreme wildfires and damaging storms have made affordable insurance problematic in California and Florida. Consider what will happen to real estate, banking, and local governmental property tax based funding, when large areas become “uninsurable”, which is projected to happen within a decade or so.
These economic hits are the result of just the gradual heating from the changing climate. Abrupt, nonlinear changes have also been identified, which would break our economy and our entire food production system.
The global GDP is over $110 trillion, and the economy is brittle, vulnerable to disruption from unexpected disturbances. What is it worth to avoid having the economy collapse? By spending extra money now, we can avoid, or at least mitigate, the consequences of apparently low probability events. This is the reason for property insurance. This is the reason for upgraded seismic engineering in earthquake country.
There is no solution without dealing with the underlying cause. There is no possibility of avoiding events when you refuse to even acknowledge they exist, which is the current insane policy of the Federal government. What is the wisdom of ignoring reality?
So, when you hear someone complain that it is too expensive to address the climate crisis, ask them if they like paying high energy prices. Ask them want kind of planet they want for their grandchildren.
Crispin B. Hollinshead lives in Ukiah. This and previous articles can be found at cbhollinshead.blogspot.com.
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