We look ahead to Sunday’s UEFA Nations League Final at the Allianz Arena with our Portugal vs Spain prediction and preview. Which country will become the first to win the Nations League twice?
Portugal vs Spain Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer makes Spain favourites to win the Nations League, with La Roja beating Portugal inside 90 minutes in 50.1% of simulations. Spain are unbeaten in their last 13 Nations League games (W9 D4). Portugal are looking to beat Spain for the first time since a 4-0 friendly win in 2010.It promises to be a fascinating final of the UEFA Nations League at the Allianz Arena on Sunday as Portugal take on Spain.
Portugal are in the final of the competition for the first time since they won the inaugural edition in 2019, when they beat the Netherlands 1-0 to lift the Nations League trophy in the Estádio do Dragão in Porto.
Spain have featured in every Nations League final since, with this being their third, more than any other country. La Roja were beaten 2-1 by France in Milan in 2021, before winning on penalties against Croatia in 2023 in Rotterdam, so whoever wins on Sunday will become the first team to win the Nations League twice.
Roberto Martínez’s men reached the final with an impressive comeback win against Germany. Florian Wirtz – rumoured to be a target for Liverpool this summer – headed the hosts in front in their semi-final on Wednesday, before Francisco Conceição curled in a brilliant equaliser and Cristiano Ronaldo tapped in Nuno Mendes’ cross to give Portugal a 2-1 victory. It handed them their first win over Germany since Euro 2000.
Spain’s semi-final was even more dramatic, with Luis de la Fuente’s men racing out to a 4-0 lead over France in Stuttgart, with Nico Williams, Mikel Merino, Lamine Yamal (penalty) and Pedri all finding the net in a dominant display.
Kylian Mbappé pulled one back from the penalty spot, but Yamal added another shortly after to restore the four-goal cushion.
Rayan Cherki’s introduction from the bench helped make things more interesting as he scored and provided an assist for Randal Kolo Muani either side of a Dani Vivian own goal to make it 5-4, but Les Bleus were unable to find an equaliser.
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3 hours ago Oliver HopkinsPortugal came through a group stage of Croatia, Scotland and Poland to reach the quarter-finals, where they had to come from behind having lost the first leg 1-0 to Denmark, winning the second leg 5-2 after extra-time (5-3 on aggregate).
Spain played Serbia, Switzerland and Denmark in the group stage, before edging past the Netherlands in the quarter-finals. A 2-2 draw in the first leg was followed by a 3-3 stalemate back in Spain, but De La Fuente’s side went through 5-4 on penalties.
Spain have an outstanding recent record in the Nations League, having not lost any of their last 13 games in the competition (W9 D4).
Sunday will likely see Ronaldo and Yamal face off, which would be quite a sight for football fans everywhere. The Portuguese legend, who has won the Ballon d’Or five times, will come up against a player 22 years and 168 days his junior whom many expect to win the award multiple times in the future.
On that topic, there is likely to be a 2+ year difference in the average age of both teams, with Portugal’s starting XI against Germany having an average age of 27 years and 164 days, while Spain’s starters against France were just 25 years and 34 days old on average. Will that experience tell, or will youthful exuberance carry the holders through?
Portugal vs Spain Head-to-Head
The last time these two faced one another was in the previous edition of the Nations League, in a 1-1 draw in Seville, with Ricardo Horta’s goal for Portugal cancelling out Álvaro Morata’s opener. That was followed by a 1-0 win for Spain in the return game three months later, with Morata scoring an 88th-minute winner in Braga.
In fact, prior to that 1-0 win for Spain, the previous five games in all competitions between the two nations had been drawn, with the last time Portugal beat Spain coming in a friendly in November 2010, which they won 4-0.
Portugal vs Spain Prediction
The Opta supercomputer sees Spain as favourites for the final, as they win just over half of its 10,000 simulations inside 90 minutes (50.1%). Portugal do so in just over a quarter (26.0%), with the remaining 23.9% seeing the game go to extra-time and potentially penalties.
Portugal vs Spain Squads
Portugal: Diogo Costa, José Sá, Rui Silva, Nélson Semedo, Rúben Dias, António Silva, Diogo Dalot, Renato Veiga, Gonçalo Inácio, Nuno Mendes, João Palhinha, Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, João Neves, Rúben Neves, Pote, Vitinha, Rodrigo Mora, Cristiano Ronaldo, Gonçalo Ramos, João Félix, Francisco Trincão, Rafael Leão, Pedro Neto, Diogo Jota, Francisco Conceição.
Coach: Roberto Martínez
Spain: David Raya, Álex Remiro, Unai Simón, Pedro Porro, Robin Le Normand, Pau Cubarsi, Dani Vivian, Dean Huijsen, Oscar Mingueza, Álex Grimaldo, Marc Cucurella, Mikel Merino, Fabián Ruiz, Gavi, Nico Williams, Álex Baena, Martín Zubimendi, Pedri, Mikel Oyarzabal, Isco, Álvaro Morata, Dani Olmo, Yeremy Pino, Lamine Yamal, Fermín López, Samu Aghehowa.
Coach: Luis de la Fuente
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Portugal vs Spain: Opta Supercomputer Nations League Final Prediction Opta Analyst.
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