It was the CPI Day for Switzerland and Europe today. The Swiss CPI went negative matching the consensus view, while the core reading ticked lower to 0.5% vs 0.6% prior. This of course wasn't enough to change the market pricing which sees 55 bps of easing by year-end with a 34% chance of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming SNB meeting.
The Eurozone CPI missed expectations across the board with the core measure falling to 2.3% vs 2.7% prior and services inflation to 3.2% vs 4.0% prior. This hasn't changed the market pricing much as the ECB is already widely expected to cut this week by 25 bps and then deliver at least another cut by year-end.
We had also some central bank speakers commenting on their outlook throughout the session but they didn't offer anything new in terms of forward guidance. BoJ's Ueda continues to repeat that they will raise rates if their conditions are met with focus on inflation and trade negotiations.
BoE's speakers, on the other hand, remain confident that the disinflationary trend will continue and that the path for rates is to the downside amid growth risks that according to BoE's Bailey are not captured by GDP data.
In the American session, the focus switches to the US Job Openings data and a few Fed speakers. The Job Openings data is for April and the consensus sees a drop to 7.100M vs 7.192M prior. That shouldn't change much for the market given that it's now old news and we have the more timely Jobless Claims and NFP reports coming up later in the week.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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