College basketball 2025-26 outlook: Our revised Top 25 rankings following NBA Draft decisions ...Middle East

Our ridiculously early rankings for the 2025-26 season were initially published after the national championship game two months ago. Then came a wave of transfers and NBA Draft decisions that have added a morsel of clarity to the landscape.

So welcome to version 2.0, which uses updated rosters as the foundation for this ongoing exercise in futility. (It’s not a matter of being right or wrong so much as being reasonably wrong or embarrassingly wrong.)

The third and final edition will be published prior to the season.

Each team’s position in our April rankings has been included.

1. Connecticut: After a year offstage, the 2023 and 2024 national champions should return to the spotlight following a huge victory in the NBA Draft decision game: Forward Alex Karaban’s return gives the Huskies a stellar one-two punch with guard Solo Ball. If transfer Silas Demary makes the expected impact — he averaged 13.5 points for Georgia — the Huskies will be well-positioned for a Big East title and Final Four run. (Previous: 1)

2. Houston: Peace has come to a roster that was in flux two months ago, and there’s plenty to like with point guard Milos Uzan withdrawing from the NBA Draft to join Emanuel Sharp, Joseph Tugler and one of the top recruiting classes in the country. Add the culture, the system and the head coach (Kelvin Sampson), and the Cougars warrant a spot near the top. In fact, we considered them for No. 1. (Previous: 2)

3. Texas Tech: The Big 12 gets our early vote as the best league in the land in 2025-26, in part because the Red Raiders should pick up where they left off in 2025. Leading scorer JT Toppin returns, as does gifted guard Christian Anderson. TTU also grabbed LeJuan Watts from Washington State and Tyeree Bryan from Santa Clara. The end result is more than enough production to offset the loss of Darrion Williams. (Previous: 11)

4. St. John’s: It took just two seasons for Rick Pitino to revitalize the Red Storm. His third year will bring expectations and pressure, so there’s significant downside risk to our projection. Also, the roster was hit hard by attrition. That said, Pitino’s collection of incoming transfers might be the best in the country. It includes Bryce Hopkins (Providence) and Ian Jackson (North Carolina), but the player to watch is guard Joson Sanon from Arizona State. (Previous: 4)

5. Purdue: What is true of Houston is true of the Boilermakers: The head coach and culture matter as much as the roster itself. But when the core features one of the nation’s top playmakers (guard Braden Smith) and an impact big man (Trey Kaufman-Renn), the forecast is indisputably bright. Coach Matt Painter should have the best team in the Big Ten, where the competition for supremacy isn’t nearly as stout as in the Big 12 and SEC. (Previous: 15)

6. Brigham Young: We very well could be underrating the Cougars with this placement given the retention of wing Richie Saunders, the luring of point guard Robert Wright (from Baylor) and the arrival of No. 1 recruit A.J. Dybansta. And that’s not all. Big man Keba Keita is back while guard Kennard Davis, a high-level scorer, joins the Cougars from Southern Illinois. The end result is arguably BYU’s best lineup since Danny Ainge and Co. 45 yards ago. (Previous: 6)

7. Michigan: The Wolverines lost several key pieces from their run to the Sweet 16, but their rotation for Year Two under coach Dusty May has a high ceiling if the disparate pieces coalesce. UAB transfer Yaxel Lendeborg is a major talent who turned down a likely spot in the first round of the NBA Draft. The Wolverines also added North Carolina guard Elliot Cadeau and Aday Mara, the 7-foot-3 game changer from UCLA. (Previous: 5)

8. Illinois: It has been years since expectations were this high in Champaign, where the football program stands as a contender in the Big Ten and the basketball team has a rotation worthy of the Sweet 16. The key to success next winter: Consistent high-level play from Andrej Stojakovic, the Cal transfer who averaged 18 points per game last season. (Previous: Not ranked)

9. Kentucky: The Wildcats retained leading scorer Otega Oweh, who mulled a jump to the NBA but opted for another season in Lexington with coach Mark Pope. The support system orbiting Oweh consists of impact transfers, from Pitt’s Jaland Lowe to Arizona State’s Jayden Quaintance and Alabama’s Mouhamed Dioubate. The Wildcats finished five games off the pace last season in the SEC. They should be in contention next winter. (Previous: 7)

10. Duke: No team was hit harder by the NBA Draft than the Blue Devils, who lost three likely lottery picks (Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach) and a first-round talent, Cedric Coward, who initially planned to transfer to Durham from Washington State. That said, the Boozer brothers are on the way. Cameron and Cayden, the sons of former Duke star Carlos Boozer, will help offset the attrition. (Previous: 3)

11. Iowa State: We love the core of Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson and Tamin Lipsey. But it’s reasonable to wonder whether the Cyclones have enough offense to navigate the Big 12 gauntlet and make a deep run in March Madness. Lockdown defense has been their identity under T.J. Otzelberger, but that only gets you so far — as shown by their lengthy list of NCAA exits in the rounds of 32 and 16. The deeper you go, the greater the premium on playmakers. (Previous: 16)

12. Louisville: Coach Pat Kelsey did a first-rate job in his rookie season and, despite significant attrition, is loading up with impact high school recruits (hello, Mikel Brown Jr.) and transfers (Xavier’s Ryan Conwell). The sport is better when Louisville is relevant, and it’s even better when both Louisville and Kentucky are among the elites. They collide Nov. 11 in Louisville, if you’re curious. (Previous: 9)

13. Auburn: The Tigers lost SEC Player of the Year Johni Broome and several other top-line contributors, including wing Chad Baker-Mazara. Star freshman Tahaad Pettiford pulled out of the NBA Draft and will be the centerpiece of a rebuilt rotation. We’re quite confident coach Bruce Pearl will maximize his talent, even if the process requires six or eight weeks. (Previous: 10)

14. NC State: Our top sleeper pick for 2026 thanks to the presence of first-year coach Will Wade, and it didn’t take long for the former LSU and McNeese State boss to upgrade his roster in Raleigh: Texas Tech transfer Darrion Williams was one of the top transfers on the market. There’s plenty of room on the top shelf of the ACC. Watch out for the Wolfpack. (Previous: 12)

15. Florida: Retaining big man Alex Condon and luring guard Boogie Fland (from Arkansas) were critical to regression mitigation in Gainesville, where the pressure to repeat as national champions will be significant. The Gators have the pieces to contend for the Final Four. But replacing Walton Clayton Jr. is a daunting task, particularly in the final minutes of close games. (Previous: 20)

16. UCLA: The Bruins filled their most important need when New Mexico point guard Donovan Dent opted to transfer home for his senior season. (He’s from Riverside.) The Mountain West Player of the Year should create more scoring opportunities for forwards Eric Dailey Jr. and Tyler Bilodeau, thus improving the offensive efficiency — the Bruins were No. 37 nationally in that metric, according to KenPom — and elevating UCLA to the top tier of the Big Ten. (Previous: 13)

17. Alabama: The last-minute reversal by Labaron Philon, who backed out of the NBA Draft, should help the Crimson Tide avoid a serious backslide. Success hinges on a slew of newcomers assimilating quickly in coach Nate Oats’ fast-paced system. If you’re looking for teams that could sputter early and sizzle late, Alabama should be on the short list. (Previous: 14)

18. Creighton: Josh Dix and Owen Freeman, who combined for 31 points per game at Iowa last season, have crossed the state line and will take leading roles for the Bluejays. One of the most consistent programs in the country must replace mainstay Ryan Kalkbrenner. The Hawkeye duo will help immensely. (Previous: 8)

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19. Gonzaga: The Bulldogs have one of the nation’s top frontlines with veteran Graham Ike and skilled sophomore Braden Huff, but the backcourt has been overhauled. Tyon Grant-Foster, a high-level talent from Grand Canyon, selected Gonzaga late last month and will join Braeden Smith (previous stop: Colgate) and Jalen Warley (Virginia) to take the playmaking lead for the Zags. The list we referenced in the Alabama comment is relevant in Spokane, as well: Get ‘em early, because they could be hellacious late. (Previous: 22)

20. North Carolina: The arrival of Kyan Evans from Colorado State and Henri Veesaar from Arizona will help the Tar Heels avoid a major backslide. But it’s all about the degree of progress in Chapel Hill as much-criticized coach Hubert Davis faces perhaps the greatest threat to his job security: instant success down the road, orchestrated by new NC State coach Will Wade. (Previous: 21)

21. Arkansas: Boogie Fland’s move to Florida doesn’t kneecap the Razorbacks, who retained Karter Knox at the NBA Draft deadline and have one of the nation’s top recruiting classes arriving in the fall. But much depends on junior D.J. Wagner elevating his game and playing to the potential he showed as a mega-recruit in high school. (Previous: 17)

22. Kansas: The return of big man Flory Bidunga and arrival of heralded prospect Darryn Peterson provide Bill Self with a solid foundation as he attempts to keep pace with the best teams in the Big 12. And who figured the Jayhawks would ever be playing from behind in the Big 12 hierarchy? How the recruiting landscape has changed. (Previous: 25)

23. San Diego State: The Aztecs were a big winner at the NBA Draft stay-or-go deadline with wing Miles Byrd opting for another season in college. They must replace point guard Nick Boyd (transfer) but retained big man Magoon Gwath and guard Reese Waters. SDSU enters its final season in the Mountain West as the frontrunner. (Previous: Not ranked)

24. Iowa: Our sunny outlook for the Hawkeyes is rooted in the arrival of coach Ben McCollum, fresh off his successful one-year run at Drake. McCollum’s lineup will feature guard Bennett Stirtz, who averaged 19 points for Drake and should be one of the most productive players in the Big Ten. With expectations low, the Hawkeyes will spend the season playing with house money. (Previous: 19)

25. Arizona: The Wildcats got hit hard by attrition, losing Caleb Love and Trey Townsend to eligibility, KJ Lewis and Henri Veesaar to the transfer portal and, crucially, Carter Bryant to the NBA Draft. But that’s just one of the issues in Tucson. The stacked non-conference schedule became exponentially more difficult when a slew of opponents retained key players in the NBA decision-making process. And so did the top teams in the Big 12 (Houston, Texas Tech, BYU). Arizona’s freshman class is strong, but how will the rookies hold up through a five-month grind? We’re skeptical. (Previous: 24)

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