We look ahead to Sunday’s League One play-off final at Wembley Stadium with our Charlton Athletic vs Leyton Orient prediction and preview. Who will earn promotion to the Championship?
Charlton Athletic vs Leyton Orient Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer makes Charlton Athletic favourites, with the Addicks winning in 53.7% of simulations and doing so inside 90 minutes 40.6% of the time. Including the play-offs, only Leyton Orient’s Charlie Kelman (23) has scored more goals than Charlton’s Matty Godden (19) in League One this season. Charlton won both regular season meetings in League One against Orient, with all three of their goals across both games coming in second-half stoppage time.Two clubs separated by the Thames and roughly a 20-minute drive make the short journey to Wembley to determine who will be playing their football in the Championship next season.
Sunday’s League One play-off final sees Charlton Athletic take on Leyton Orient in what will be only the third Football League play-off final contested between two teams from London, after Crystal Palace beat West Ham in 2003-04 and Fulham defeated Brentford in 2019-20, both in the second tier.
The Addicks will fancy their chances if they lean on the club’s history of such occasions. Including their 1986-87 relegation play-off final against Leeds United that secured their top-flight survival, Charlton have won each of their three play-off finals (also 1997-98 and 2018-19), the joint-best 100% success rate on such occasions (with Peterborough United).
Leyton Orient, on the other hand, do not have similar play-off successes to take inspiration from. Since beating Wrexham over two legs in the 1988-89 fourth-tier play-offs, Orient have lost their last three play-off finals, with the most recent one seeing them beaten on penalties by Rotherham United in the 2013-14 League One final .
Charlton boss Nathan Jones didn’t hold back in his celebrations after beating Wycombe Wanderers in the semi-finals and will be eager to make sure those emotions were not for nothing. It took plenty of effort to get past Mike Dodds’ side; after a dour 0-0 in the first leg was followed by a tense encounter at the Valley, with Matty Godden’s late goal finally deciding things.
Including the play-offs, that was Godden’s 19th League One goal of the season, with only Leyton Orient’s Charlie Kelman (23) having scored more this season; just once before has Godden scored 20 goals in an EFL campaign, doing so in 2016-17 for Stevenage in League Two.
Kelman played a key role, unsurprisingly, in Orient overcoming Stockport County in their semi-final, scoring twice in the first leg at Brisbane Road – albeit one was extremely fortunate to be given after replays showed Kelman was several yards offside when Omar Beckles flicked the ball to him. He also fired in a late penalty to make it 2-2.
Ollie O’Neill put Orient ahead in the return leg at Edgeley Park only for Isaac Olaofe to equalise, sending the tie to penalties. O’s goalkeeper Josh Keeley saved from Jack Diamond before Ryan Rydel also hit the post for the hosts, allowing Ethan Galbraith to seal a 4-1 victory for Richie Wellens’ men in the shootout.
Leyton Orient have been proficient in front of goal this season. Only Birmingham City (111), Peterborough United (98) and Leeds United (96) have scored more EFL goals across all competitions than them (94). It is the most goals scored by the O’s in a Football League campaign since 2013-14 (104), though that might not be a great omen as they lost the League One play-off final that season.
Charlton have a solid record at Wembley, having won each of their last three major finals played there, beginning with the 1947 FA Cup final when they beat Burnley 1-0. Their other two visits to the national stadium saw them win play-off finals against Sunderland, firstly in 1997-98 (7-6 on pens in the second tier) and in 2018-19 (2-1 in the third tier).
Leyton Orient did win their first two games at Wembley, beating Brentford and Southend United all the way back in 1930 while in the Third Division South, but they are winless in their last three visits (D1 L2). Two of those were Football League play-off finals, losing 1-0 to Scunthorpe United in 1998-99 and on penalties to Rotherham after a 2-2 draw in 2013-14.
Charlton Athletic vs Leyton Orient Head-to-Head
These two have met three times this season, with each one seeing a stoppage-time winner.
Charlton came out on top in both league games. Seven teams have gone into a League One play-off final having done the double over their opponents and five have won promotion, though the most recent team did lose (Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday in 2022-23).
A 92nd-minute goal from Luke Berry at the Valley back in August gave the Addicks a 1-0 victory.
However, it was even more dramatic in the return game at Brisbane Road in March, with Leyton Orient ahead going into second-half stoppage time thanks to Jordan Brown’s spectacular long-range goal, only for two almost identical headers from corners to thwart them. First, Macaulay Gillesphey nodded in at the far post to equalise in the 92nd minute, before Kayne Ramsay did the same in the 97th minute.
That may not have been all that surprising as no team scored more stoppage-time goals than Charlton in the EFL in 2024-25 (10 – level with Leeds).
Wellens’ men did beat the Addicks in the EFL Trophy in December, though, via two stoppage-time goals. Kelman put Orient ahead at the Valley in the 93rd minute, before substitute Dan Agyei made it 2-0 moments later after a fine run.
Charlton Athletic vs Leyton Orient Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes this a close call, but it has given the edge to Charlton Athletic, who won inside 90 minutes in 40.6% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Leyton Orient won in normal time in 32.9%, while the game went to at least extra-time (and possibly penalties) in the remaining 26.5%.
Overall, Charlton are given a 53.7% chance of triumphing on the day, while Orient went up in the other 46.3% of sims.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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